Reuters reports U.S. Envoy is returning to Ethiopia to discuss peace talks with Tigray
The Tigray Defense Force retreated back into Tigray boundary in part due to requests from the United States State Department who promised some reciprocal action which has been slow in coming. Just now the United States announced that U.S. envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman is returning to Addis Ababa to specifically discuss peace talks.
Even though Tigray forces retreated into their borders, Ethiopia has continued airstrikes and drone strikes within Tigray killing dozens of civilians daily. Additionally the complete blockade of food, medical supplies, fuel for civilian use, power, telephone, and internet have continued for over a year. Millions are facing critical famine risks and thousands have died for lack of even basic health care.
The resilience of the Tigray forces to withstand against defeat by the Ethiopian, Eritrean, Turkish, and United Arab Emirates forces has created a no win situation for Ethiopia. Now recent advances have started into Western Tigray which is under Ethiopian and Eritrean occupation still with many international humanitarian organizations reporting thousands of deaths from genocidal killing, starvation, displacement, violation of women. Additionally the economic forecast for Ethiopia facing sanctions and economic collapse by the African Development banks finds low investor confidence, high unsustainable debt service from high war costs and with poor tax income. In other words Ethiopia must seek peace or find itself in complete economic ruin.
With strong support from Kenya President Kenyatta, Kenya Airlines and South African Airlines are strongly moving forward to create a “Pan-African” airline which will rival Ethiopian Airline
“To boost tourism, trade, and social engagement; and to bolster continental integration; our national carrier Kenya Airways will join hands with our partners in South Africa to establish a Pan-African Airline with unmatched continental reach and global coverage,” President Kenyatta said in his December 31, 2021 speech.
Pan-African feelings towards Ethiopian Airlines are dissipating as Kenya Airlines and South African Airlines announced an agreement to merge their national airlines into one which will be “the most formidable air transport connection in Africa”. For years Ethiopian Airlines had a literal monopoly in trans-African and international travel from Africa with its hub being one of the busiest in the world but that situation is now changing. Clearly other African countries are intent upon breaking up that monopoly.
The ongoing war in Ethiopia which appears to be no where near ending has created great questions of stability and reliability for international functions to continue in Ethiopia. Many African nations have begun to consider transferring functions of the African Union and United Nations to other countries rather the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa. For the first time, Kenya Airlines has been awarded the prestigious World Travel Award as Africa’s most outstanding airline in 2021.
Ethiopian Airlines faces possible international and United States sanctions for violations of the Chicago Convention, an international treaty signed by Ethiopia, which calls for the complete banning of military personnel and equipment in declared civilian flights. Additionally, American federal law allows criminal prosecution of businesses and individuals doing business in the United States who actively support genocide. Aliens to the United States as well as citizens can also sue foreign governments who have assets in the United States for violations of human rights occurring in other countries. In October 2021 senior administration officials told CNN News that “We have the ability to impose sanctions and are prepared to use them and other tools at our disposal against those prolonging the tragedy in Tigray”. Ethiopian Airlines is owned by the Ethiopian government an liable as a government entity.
The past year saw Ethiopian loose more than $500 million in revenue due to COVID19 and additional loses due to the ongoing conflict. At this year’s Dubai Airshow which is the typical local where African airlines make orders for new aircraft Ethiopian Airlines for the first time ordered no new aircraft but only re-negotiated a lower maintenance contract with Boeing. While Air Tanzania ordered three jets including one 787 from Boeing.
A well respected Amhara diaspora, Professor Tilahu Yilma, used barbarous language intended to propagate hate later repackaged to state only against leaders. This type of language is unseemly for an educated man but it is part of the careful cultivation of genocidal culture currently underway by Abiy Ahmed supporters both in Ethiopia and elsewhere carried out on social media. His video was nationally televised in Ethiopia on government television.
The Ethiopian and Eritrean government are applying a massive effort in social media in the latest evolution of propaganda to justify genocide by inciting hate and call to action for revenge. This builds upon the experience seen first in Nazi Germany and then in Rwanda in the nefarious art of misinformation which empowers genocide while obscuring its existence.
The development and use of specialized propaganda mechanisms to disguise genocidal intentions in media was first exploited by the Nazis in a democratically elected government in the 1940s, then copied and refined to an African style by the Rwanda government against the Tutsi in 1994, and finally now we see how Abiy Ahmed supporters have further advanced this evil practice with the use of social media to defend Tigray genocide.
Although there is always an argument raised about freedom of speech whenever this topic of hate speech comes up, solid social science research has shown that “revenge speech” which magnifies differences between the in and out group, builds up a false perception of the risk of threat in the audience, and dehumanizes the targeted group is successful in inciting increased discrimination and violence. This is why despotic authoritarian governments develop and use it.
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum makes the point that the Nazi propaganda machine fostered hate for its supporters while at the same time sewed indifference to the outside world about the genocide against European Jews. Today in Ethiopia we commonly see the excuse that derogatory comments such as calling Tigrayans “cancer”, for example, are always backtracked on social media after they have had their initial shock effect. The propagandists always claim later their referral was to leaders not the people. These coded messages function to strengthen and enhance enmity buy sending a silent message to believers and would be joiners but then are “refuted” as not being generalized. They clearly show the intent of the genocidal group to hide their intentions.
The Rwanda genocide of the Tutsi by Huti lead government leaders and party leaders affliated with President Habyarimana did not happen all at once. Just as in Germany and now what we are seeing in Ethiopia a message has been developed over time. Educators in schools, newspapers, and diaspora over many years repeated the message the minority, the Jews, the Tutsi, and now the Tigray were always planning an impending violent genocide of their own against the majority. They were outsiders to the society at large and did not contribute to progress.
These propagandist actions did not occur sporadically. In fact they have a well studied nefarious art which has been studied extensively. The Rwanda leadership relied on learning methods of propaganda as analyzed by a French professor, Roger Mucchielli, in his book, Psychologie de la publicité et de la propagande. This included persuading the majority population that the opponent intends to use terror against them; once convinced this formerly “honest people” will take whatever measures they think necessary for legitimate self-defense. Genocidal actions of deprivation, violation, and killing become acceptable to those who would never have considered them previously.
The high participation of the world in social media over the past decade has offered new tools for promoting genocide while hiding its purpose. The governments of Ethiopia, Tigray, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates expend considerable resources including recruiting expertise in social media production and monitoring. Just like Hitler they know the value of propaganda.
This Tutsi patient was ordered out of a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Rwanda during the 1994 genocide then shot to death. Similar stories have happened in Tigray.
The ongoing Tigray genocide seems to be following a parallel course to the Rwanda genocide of 1994 against the Tutsi by the Huti government with many of the same features including African Union apathy, United Nations paralysis, and lack of decisive action by the Western democracies so that an end to the killing only occurred when Tutsi rebels grew strong enough to stop the killing. The calls one hears today from Abiy Ahmed supporters denying genocide and denying visits from outside recognized international aid as well as the silence of the African Union about the Tigray conflict with Ethiopia are looking like an eerie repetition of the same situation that happened to Rwanda where the world did nothing except that the loss of life in Tigray is going to be much greater then Rwanda.
In 1994 the Tutsi ethnic group made up about 14% of Rwanda but had a history of privilege and power. A Huti came to power, President Habyarimana, who along with others began a campaign of hate blaming the Tutsi for the countries increasing economic and social problems as well as accusing them of causing political division. They became targeted scape goat encouraged by government propaganda. Through out the country mobs formed which destroyed personal property, displaced hundreds of thousands, violated many women, and killed over 800,000 people in just a few weeks.
Just like what has happened in the Ethiopia Tigray conflict, Huti elements attacked UN mediators and humanitarians in Rwanda causing international authorities to leave. They blocked reporters and international organizations from the country. Other African countries were hesitant to criticize what was happening in Rwanda and voiced similar cries to let Africa solve its problem but did nothing. Other African countries denied there was a genocide. Lack of on site reporting and objective international organizations clouded any information leaving the country. International members of the security council and Western democracies “refused to declare that a government guilty of exterminating its citizens would never receive international assistance”.
The killing, deprivation, violation, and starvation went on for many months with no action by African or the UN until finally Tutsi rebels who trained outside the country where able to overthrow the government and replace the president with Paul Kagame.
A grandmother lies mortally wounded by an Ethiopian drone attack on civilians in Southern Tigray in December 2021
Using euphemisms instead of the word, genocide, does not save lives or stop genocide. Instead of applying the precautionary principle of the UN Geneva Convention the delay in the official recognition of genocide directed against the people of Tigray and by Eritrea, Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates, and Turkey follows a sad pattern previously seen in Rwanda, Darfur, and Bosnia. Rather then directly confronting the offenders with the truth of an ongoing genocide the international community is once again delaying declaration of genocide based on the false hope proven by previous catastrophic experience that using lesser terms will allow diplomacy to bring a change in behavior. Using lesser terms only empowers the genocidal power to continue deprivation and killing.
Ethnic cleansing ( a term created during the Bosnia war), population displacement, and civil war are examples of terms that are lesser then genocide and do not trigger international sanctions. A years long total blockade of Tigray has resulted in total lack of health care and food supplies while targeted attacks on civilians have together resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and continues to threaten millions in Tigray as already documented by the UN.
Academic study of this failure to respond has been well studied by public health researchers. Using euphemisms instead of the term genocide always resulting in more death and destruction. Because the cost of human lives has so often been catastrophic the United Nations Convention in 1948 was created to function with a Precautionary Principle which stresses early intervention to stop the killing as soon as possible. Once reasonable suspicion is raised the burden of proof is changed from those suspecting the genocide to those carrying it out under international agreement. Despite this the 20th century saw over 170 million deaths from genocide.
Ethiopia is seeing COVID19 infections climbing above previous peaks
While the Ethiopian government is fixated on buying weapons, spending over $2.5 billion this year, it is stingy about spending money to protect Ethiopians from the wave of COVID19 infections afflicting the globe. Reports indicate that expenditures for health and vaccination have been slowed down or halted in favor of the war effort. The past couple of days I have spoken to individuals and healthcare providers from Ethiopia who report that clinics are swamped with patients and hospitals overflowing.
According to the John Hopkins database Ethiopia is rapidly climbing with the highest infection rates seen to date. In fact for December 30, 2021 it was 4,998. This week it has gone from 4000 a week to over 4000 a day. With millions of displaced persons in Tigray(who have no access to healthcare, testing, or vaccination) and Northern Ethiopia one can easily assume this infection rate is artificially low.
According to Oxford University data base as of December 29, 2021 less than 2 million Ethiopians have been fully vaccinated which means two doses and does not include a third booster out of more then 110 million population. Less than 10 million received a single dose which wears off in a few months.
The COVAX program run by the World Health Organization in cooperation with the United Nations coordinates and provides vaccinations around the world including Ethiopia. Receiving countries have to pay a third of the cost to sustain the program. Although the program allocated 41 million doses for Ethiopia so far Ethiopia has only ordered 27 million of which 22 million where ready some time ago but they have not been delivered. Where they ever paid for?
In contrast to the COVAX official reports, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health reported to Reuters in February 2021 that an initial 9 million doses was secured at a cost of $328 million dollars with a promise to immunize 20% of the population by the end of year. Clearly the reality of that report is in question as nothing further has happened since February 2021.
UN staff member Michael Hiluf was killed by an Ethiopian directed drone attack
We know that Turkish mercenary forces are the ones often operating drone attacks in Tigray and in fact Turkish flags are now flying over Ethiopian communities. During this Christmas season these operators had the audacity and inhumanity to attack a United Nations convoy carrying UN staff. Is Ethiopia now becoming a colony of Turkey?
Michael Hiluf was traveling with his daughter while traveling from Alamata to Mekelle when Turkish drones killed him and injured others. Everyday dozens of civilians are killed on the streets of villages and towns in Tigray. Because of the complete blockade of food, medicine, and fuel there is nothing that can be done to help this innocent lives adding to the loss.
The killing of UN staff and innocent civilians is only cementing in place the clear reality that Ethiopia and its allies in genocide are committed in their evil purpose. This purpose is driven by the belief that any means of annihilation of the Tigray people is appropriate to eliminate ethnicity and culture which is not Amharic dominant. This is reinforced by an infrastructure of media propaganda, Amhara academics, clerico-fascists, and revisionist history of Ethiopia artificially synthesized by biased sources.
The impetus on this growing evil grows stronger when the UN and the Western democracies who have claimed to stand for human rights and democracy since World War II only remain silent.
Dr. Kebede wrote an article in which he called for the “closure” of different ethnic groups in Ethiopia but also said aversions to other ethnic groups are learned and should be unlearned. This aversion is a major feature of the Abiy Ahmed regime in contrast to Dr. Kebede.
The latest writings of an Ethiopian diaspora academic living in USA are getting a lot of attention from Ethiopian government supporters. Messay Kebede, continues the elitist view that authoritarian means are allowable to reach the goal of Ethiopian nationhood by eliminating non-Amharic ethnicity. For many years this academic has been a source of building a sense of Amharic elitism under the false pretense of Ethiopian national identity.
Well recognized academic Dr. Messay Kebede wrote yesterday in the Ethiopia Observer that Ethiopia has no choice but to rapidly invade Tigray in light of its “military victory”. He like many of the Amahra elites are opposed to the UN and Western democracy requests for a cease fire but instead want the war to continue mercilessly.
His writings have changed almost 180 degrees from what he was writing prior to Abiy Ahmed coming to power to what he is writing now in support of Abiy Ahmed. Now he calls the goal of creating a nonethnic unified Ethiopia as a legitimate excuse for overwhelming force in Tigray and Oromo while saying nothing against genocide. Amazingly his calls for oppressive Ethiopian military action stand in stark contrast to what he stated in previous writings.
Previously in January 2021 he had called for Abiy Ahmed to take down the “Oromo elites” even if he had to use “authoritarian” means as the way to allow an Ethiopian nationhood to emerge from previous ethnic centered politics. He goes further in the recent writing to predict that the Tigray and Oromo will welcome Ethiopia forces as “liberators”. After my 7 years of living in Tigray including experiencing the occupation of Mekelle whilst carrying for hundred of Tigrayan victims of Abiy Ahmed’s directed atrocities I cannot imagine how this could be true. Previously the Tigray suffered for almost 2 decades under the Derg regime without surrender.
In 2016 he celebrated the development of Amharic resistance to the Ethiopia Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front and called for the Oromo to join in that fight. He noted that other Amhara were fearful that joining with Oromo could strengthen the Oromo quest for secession. Interesting he stated at that time however that a government who had to call an army to quell rebellion was weak.
The mobilization of army units to crush a popular rebellion is not a sign of strength; it is the proof that the regime has lost all legitimacy so that it can only govern by force and intimidation. Such a regime is at the mercy of incidents, not to mention the inevitability of internal divisions and even of a coup d’état.
In this same 2016 writing, he called for those wanting change to insure that a new way of ruling is required. In other words those that come after the EPRDF should not rule in the same dominating way. This somewhat echoes the recent comments of former Ethiopian minister Falsin Abdi who resigned her position because she felt Abiy Ahmed was wanting to start a regime based upon Amhara domination. Now Messay Kebede seems to have forgotten his previous words.
This noted academic like many Amhara comes to his opinions based upon the idea that an Amharic defined Ethiopian nationalism is best for Ethiopia which requires the elimination of other ethnic identities. Whereas the Tigray and many Oromo fighting for liberation see ethnic preservation in a coalition is vital to preserving their culture and way of life.
Dr. Kebede has previously received acclaim from many among the Amhara intellectual elites for his writings on the causes and mechanisms of the Ethiopian revolution against the Derg regime in the book, Autopsy of the Ethiopian Revolution. Following the the Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Front coming to power, Kebede was on the faculty at Addis Ababa University for 15 years. Many Amharic academics clashed with EPRDF policy of recognizing multiple ethnic identities and preserving regional autonomy including Dr. Kebede. After spending 5 months in jail he decided to immigrate to the United States in 1994 where he has been on the faculty at the University of Dayton since 1998.
Former Ethiopian Minister of Women, Children, and Youth gave an interview to the Washington Post to “set the record straight” that Abiy Ahmed never wanted peace but instead was aiming for another “ethnic domination”
The Washington Post interview of the former Ethiopian Minister of Children, Women, and Youth, Filsan Abdi, shows the bravery and honesty of one high ranking official who chose to leave an immoral government at risk to herself and family choosing now to tell the truth about the Ethiopian leader Abiy Ahmed. Now outside the country she feels the need to speak out about why she left Ethiopia.
No one can accuse Filsan Abdi, sometimes identified as Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed, of being a Tigray Peoples Liberation Front sympathizer. She recalls the unfair treatment her family and other Ethiopian Somalis underwent at times under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front formed by Meles Zenawi. She had hoped that Abiy Ahmed would create a better democratic Ethiopia but instead felt she was being drawn into another “ethnic domination”.
A pious Muslim whose faith teaches peace over war, that war has strict rules of engagement, and that protection of women and children as paramount she notes that what Abiy Ahmed was doing was more about “revenge” and power then justice. Hers was the lone voice in a government based upon deceit that loudly proclaimed that violations against women and civilians had been carried out by Eritrean and Ethiopian forces in Tigray following and investigation carried out by herself and the attorney general. In her recent interview she said the following about Abiy Ahmed’s cruel policies:
“But if we don’t back away from it, we are doomed,”
“One day we will wake up from this nightmare and have to ask ourselves: How will we live with the choices we made?”
The environment of Ethiopia under the current grasp of Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party is of tight control of media and messaging. No dissent is allowed. Any expression of disagreement with official party views or news is considered an act of terrorism subjecting the offender to imprisonment without trial or hearing.
The political mechanism controlling the messages approved by Abiy Ahmed extends beyond the borders of Ethiopia into the internet alliances subsidized by China, Russia, Iran, and other authoritarian states. These alternative news sites, although perhaps they are better called “opinion” sites all claim victim hood suffered Western democracies against Iran, Eritrea, and all of Africa. For them they belief in a nefarious claim that Abiy Ahmed is the necessary hero taking the necessary actions even if grave in nature to free all Africans from this legacy.
The world as well those blindly following Abiy Ahmed’s inhumane policies should listen to this righteous woman who is pleading for a just outcome to the current crisis in Ethiopia which begins by recognizing truth from propaganda.
The Ethiopian birr has continually degraded in value since 2018 and this has accelerated over the past year and falling faster the past few months
Complete collapse of the Ethiopian economy into a state of worthless currency and financial chaos is drawing closer every day. Long lines for diesel or gasoline costing many times its traditional costs are now a reality in the capital city of Addis Ababa. In a country where 50% of food requirements must be imported now the government has announced there will be no more food subsidy which will send prices soaring.
Over $2.5 billion in debt has been added just this year in payments to countries (UAE, Turkey, Iran )in hard foreign currency or gold reserves. This has resulted in cuts to medical services and supplies, education, infrastructure, and housing as well as the ending of food and fuel subsidies.
The Ethiopian government national debt is skyrocketing out of control under Abiy Ahmed leadership to levels that are unsustainable
The Ethiopian economy and the value of its currency has been on a continual downslide since Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party took office in 2018. While for the previous 10 years the Ethiopian economy grew at 10% annually for the upcoming year it has become unpredictable but estimated to be -2 to -3% by the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile the total Ethiopian government debt is now projected to be $60 billion by the end of 2022 and approach $100 billion in the next four years. The Ethiopian government now no longer publishes Consumer Price Index numbers.
