Poor 2022 cereal crop forecasts for Tigray means worse famine

The Tigray and Ethiopia crop forecast for 2022 predicts poor yields

The forecast for growing cereal crops (teff, sorghum, maze, and wheat) in Tigray and Ethiopia in 2022 is poor for Tigray and questionable  for Northern Ethiopia due to below average rainfall predictions based upon meteorological data and satellite sensors. Tigray cannot grow enough food to escape famine without receiving food aid. Normally there is a second season harvest which is more dependent on good rains then the first. The Ethiopian government continues the complete blockade of food and medicine to Tigray.

Without outside food aid from international sources such as the World Food Program this years crop in Tigray will be very insufficient to relieve the ongoing and worsening famine affecting more then 1 million Tigrayans and threatening ultimately another 5 to 6 million. Even for Ethiopia, the war spending in excess of $4 billion since the war with Tigray started will make it difficult to meet its needs even outside of Tigray without major purchases and/or aid. 

The Famine Early Warning systems Network predicts expanding conflict and prolonged drought expected to drive record-level and extreme need in 2022.Crisis level shortages of food will continue in Tigray while much of Ethiopia will also face stress.

Although Ethiopia claimed to withdrawal from Tigray last season to allow planting, Abiy Ahmed appointed official, Abraha Desta, said this was a lie and explained that seeds and farm equipment were sent to Eritrea as well that farmers were prevented from planting. While Ethiopia denied famine, Desta claimed it was a crisis causing many deaths. Eritreans also ransacked food aid during their occupation of Tigray. Just this week an Ethiopian attack on a community mill which farmers in Tigray need to make their crops into flour was destroyed. No seed supplies, fertilizer, or farm equipment has been allowed to be delivered to Tigray since the conflict began in November 2020. Most farmers depend upon farm animals to plow and carry heavy loads in their work but many animals were killed by Eritreans and Ethiopia forces.

Amhara Orthodox theology of economia allows ruthless war of starvation and killing

Menelik II began Amharic expansion with ruthless war using the theological principle of economia

The world is disgusted at the malevolent indifference of Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian government to the starvation and torment constantly applied to the innocent Tigray population. The world must understand the origin of a twisted blasphemous manifest destiny of Amharic domination that began with the death of Yohannes IV the last Tigray Emperor of Ethiopia in 1889.

Similar to Europe there was a strong imperial character to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church which existed with the monarchy. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church developed quite independently of the Roman Catholic Church and also somewhat isolated from the Eastern Orthodoxy as well with its own special characteristics including the concept of Jesus Christ incarnation of human and God being indivisible. This concept is called Tewahedo and often the Ethiopian Orthodox Church uses this name in short. A very important concept for the clergy was Donatism which stated that priests had to be perfect examples of the followers of Christ otherwise they could not carry out their sacred functions of the Eucharist, Blessings, and Forgiveness, and Counsel to the Emperor. This concept which is not seen in the Western Church empowers Tewahedo  to have tremendous influence over the secular government. They can forgive any sin and counsel any heinous act.

The Byzantine founder, Constantine, greatly admired by Tewahedo followers believed that although Jesus teaches peace and love the imperfect soul of man will inevitably bring war. Whenever possible the concept of  akrievia (Greekακριβεια)which is to strictly follow the peaceful path must be sought. However in a fallen world where human weakness has brought chaos Economia(Greekοἰκονομίαoikonomia) is allowed to temporarily break God’s commandments. The end will justify the means.  Tewahedo  clergy leadership has the power to give temporary dispensation for committing of even mortal sins to facilitate Amharic destiny.

Although previous Tigray rulers including Ras Alula sought some expansion from Tigray into Eritrea and Johannes temporarily captured Gondar it was after the death of Yohannes IV when Menelik II came into power that Amharic expansion began with the application of economia theological support for barbarism and cruelty. Killing, torture, theft of land, and enslavement were morally justified towards the Oromo, Southern People, and Muslims of the Western Ethiopia to achieve the goal of building the Amharic Empire.  In the last decade of the 19th century, Amharic expansion violently captures the regions of the Oromo, Sidamo, and Somali lands tripling it’s territory and making a new capital, Addis Ababa, out of the former FinFinne.




Abiy Ahmed leadership is unacceptable says Nobel Peace Prize Committee

Ethiopian Prime Minister addressed the United Nations in September 2020 promising extensive democratic reforms and press freedoms. All of these promises have been broken.

Today the Nobel Prize committee said Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize has a “special responsibility to end the conflict and contribute to peace” in Ethiopia where Tigray remains under a complete blockade.  About the current situation in Tigray they added “The humanitarian situation is very serious, and it is not acceptable that humanitarian aid does not emerge to a sufficient degree”.

Once seen as the emergent African nation of prosperity and democracy instead its honor and status has fallen precipitously  to competing with North Korea, Iran, and Eritrea for the most evil pariah. Everyday at least 40 children die of starvation, 50 innocents are killed by air or drone strikes, all the while over 7 million Tigrayans have continued to be without food, medicine, power, travel ability, or communication.  More then one hundred thousand are held in concentration camps in Western Tigray, in the areas around Addis Ababa, Afar, parts of the Southern Nations regions of Ethiopia, and even now in Eritrea. 

Once a champion of free speech and free press, Ethiopia has jailed more journalists than any other African nation. So called terrorism laws allow journalists to be jailed indefinitely without due process for printing any information not explicitly approved by the government.

Estimated to be more than $60 million in debt within the next year, government estimates that the pre-war debt would take 3 years to pay if there was greater than 8% growth are now impossible. In reality it may take a whole generation if ever. The per capita income has dropped to $700, birr has halved in value, Ethiopian bonds are now rated junk, and world wide interest in investment in unstable Ethiopian state has withered to almost nothing.  Chinese news sources have indicated they continue to withhold $339 million in further loans because Ethiopia is unstable.

Prof. Yilma, former Derg promoter of genocide by Abiy Ahmed rebuked by UC Davis

University of California at Davis has condemned the statements of former Ethiopian faculty member Tilahun Yilma

Comments by former Derg supporter and now Abiy Ahmed supporter who promotes Tigray genocide was disavowed strongly by his former institution. This week many in the academic world were shocked when well known virologist Tilahun Yilma made genocidal statements about Tigray. Dr. Yilma who was a Derg Regime supporter who eventually immigrated to the United States proclaimed that he maintained a present position at UC Davis as well that they had no problem with his genocidal statement because of his academic achievement.

Quite to the contrary, Dr. Yilma was promptly removed from the UC Davis website as evidence he longer has any affiliation with the university. Dr. Renatta Tull issued a swift condemnation of Dr. Yilma’s statements on twitter saying that such statements do not reflect the University’s values reflected in the University’s Principles of Community. The University said he has no longer any relationship with the University.

Former Derg general calls for extermination and military command of Tigray

The latest Abiy Ahmed supporter to call for Tigray extermination is a former notorious Derg Regime general who calls for all Tigray leaders to be exterminated and the Tigray state to be put under strict military command.

Kassaye Chemeda, former general under the infamous dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam who ran Ethiopia from 1977 to 1991 killed hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians leaving their bodies on the street for days then demanding their families pay for the bullet used to execute them in order to bury victims. Estimates of the total killed in the time referred to as the Red Terror estimate that more then 1.2 million civilians were killed. The killing occurred in multiple waves. Well known Ethiopian historian, René Lefort describes “that just knowing how to read” was enough to justify execution by the Derg Regime as an enemy to the state.

General Chemeda has been honored by many Ethiopia immigrants who were former sympathizers of the Derg Regime who left Ethiopia to come to the United States following their defeat by the Tigray Liberation Front and allies. Immigration from Ethiopia to the United States occurred mostly from 1975 to 1995. Many of the initial refugees where supporters of the monarchy which was overthrown and many of the later where often supporters of the Derg Regime who left Ethiopia because of fear of reprisal or imprisonment from Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Front which assumed power following the Derg defeat. As such it is not surprising that many Ethiopian immigrants to the USA support Abiy Ahmed who many see as reviving the Derg plan.

At a celebration of Derg war “heroes” held in the United States by former Derg supporter immigrants in 2009 General Chemeda and other veterans were celebrated to have attempted to defend Ethiopian integrity or unity. No remorse about the killing and terror was expressed. At the meeting the former General recounted happily how he had crushed Somalis.

Mekelle physician reports diabetic patients dire situation without treatment in Tigray

Reports by MSF(Doctors Without Borders) and the UN have consistently shown attacks on healthcare facilities in Tigray as well as the complete blockade of medical supplies which has been called the assault on health care.

Correspondence from Dr. Merhawit Atsbha, internist and faculty member, of Ayder Hospital documents how the lack of medication and services available to treat diabetic patients in Tigray has lead to horrific suffering and loss of life.

Here is his letter to the world:


As to diabetes management we have-not received any medication after June 2021. We have so far been using the stock we had before that and starting from September we have started using expired po anti diabetic drugs. And our treatment has recently focused on preventing acute complications like DKA and HHS. We have stopped being concerned about good glycemic control and preventing chronic complications. We also mostly do not discuss about diet with patients as they have to eat what is available.

From the report we got from our pharmacy head we have learned that we are left with 150 vials of NPH and few strips of glibenclamide. Metformin has been out of stock for two weeks. The sad part is we even have run out of the expired drugs. With the limited amount of drugs that we have we will be able to serve for only 2 to 3 days.

To make things worse we have run out of IV fluids so we are treating even moderate and severe DKA with free water.
Thinking about the more than 10,000 patients in Tigray and more than 2500 patients in Ayder we are very sure that we will be flooded with acutely sick patients in the coming weeks but we will not be able to help them.

Therefore, we beg you all to be the voices of the voiceless patients and physicians here. And find a means to help our patients before it is too late.
Thank you for the efforts made so far.

The Tigray Regional Health Bureau system and Mekelle University Ayder Hospital had for many years made tremendous progress in the care of Tigrayans with diabetes mellitus. Providing medications, treating complications, providing community health education on self-care and prevention were all important factors in improving life expectancy and quality of life.

The prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Ethiopia is estimated to be somewhere between 14% to 18%. With medication, diet control, and education teaching the patient self-care most diabetic patients can lead productive and near normal lives but without treatment complications like diabetic coma, peripheral vascular disease, and heart disease cause severe disability and early death.

In February 2021, Ethiopian Minister of Health Lia Tadesse lied to Reuters news agency when she said supplies were being sent to Tigray for the care of diabetics in response to news reports that people with diabetes were dying at home. Under the Ethiopian occupation no significant supplies were ever received. It is suspected that many shipments were taken instead to Eritrea.



A Statement and Plea from the Doctors at Tigray’s Ayder Hospital

The following statement and plea is from the medical staff and other health care professionals from Mekelle University Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in Tigray. Normally this is a tertiary hospital serving over 10 million population of Tigray, Afar, northern Amhara, and refugees from Eritrea. The complete blockade of supplies, power, internet, telephone, and travel has rendered the hospital essentially inoperative.

Hoping Against Hope!

Jan. 4/ 2022: Position Statement of Doctors and other health professionals of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital – College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University
We, the Doctors and other health professionals of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital – College of Health Sciences, at Mekelle University, hear and experience firsthand the daily suffering our patients are enduring. As we had solemnly sworn an oath to protect and save our patients from suffering, the least we could do on difficult days like these ones is to become their voice and ventilate their sufferings for the world to hear.
The statement below, therefore, is the collective voice of all of us working in the hospital and the college to echoing our patients’ plea that we hear every day for the last six months.
We have no doubt that anyone listening or reading this position statement will be cognizant of the fact that meeting the health needs of a community in low-resource settings such as ours is a very daunting endeavor, even in times of peace and stability.
To substantiate this, we wish to put some historical milestones of our college into perspective:
• We, the Doctors and other Health Professionals of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital – College of Health Sciences, remember our humble beginnings 14 years ago. We remember that, back then, our 500 – bed hospital had stood empty and idle for nearly a decade because of the severe shortage of health professionals, medical instruments, and financial resources.
• We also remember how this once empty hospital had grown fast through the hard work and perseverance of all of us, the unwavering support of our university, national and international partners.
A hospital that was barely better than a countryside health post in the early days of its establishment, grew to be a specialized referral center a decade later serving a catchment area of 9 million people from Tigray, neighboring districts of the Afar and Amhara regions.
It won’t be forgotten that our hospital had been also serving Eritrean refugees staying in the camps in Northern Ethiopia for quite a while. It is also to be well remembered that patients from Eritrea were well taken care of in our hospital during the brief period of border normalization between our two countries in 2018.
Our hospital’s annual patient visit had risen to nearly 300,000 and thousands of major surgeries, deliveries, and a wide variety of interventions and treatments used to be given.
We all took those positive developments for granted and it was customary for us to focus on future progress rather than dwell on past achievements.
However, while mentally unprepared, we have found ourselves, in such a short period of time, in a situation that we would never ever have considered possible in our wildest imaginations. How could we ever have expected to cancel surgeries for lack of intravenous fluids, anesthesia drugs, or tell patients or their relatives to find intravenous fluids somewhere in the city while the patient needed quick support?
But, we have been forced to work in a hospital without intravenous fluids, gloves, even the most commonly used antibiotics, anti-pain medications, drugs vital for women undergoing labor and delivery, drugs for various kinds of mental illnesses, basic laboratory tests, and a lot more other essential drugs.
• The availability of essential drugs, which was 79.3% a couple of years ago and 82% a year ago has now gone down to 17.5%.
• The availability of laboratory tests which was 93.7%, a couple of years ago and 84.2% a year ago, has now gone down to 42.1%.
The numbers are going down rapidly every week. The oxygen supply to our hospital has become very unreliable and resulted in the death of patients because of the frequent breaking down of the machines that could have been easily repaired if we got spare parts from the manufacturer through Addis Ababa to Mekelle which is now completely impossible.
To make matters worse, electricity blackouts have become more common and prolonged for days at times. There is no means of communication within the hospital and beyond. Thus, we have to walk and find the person we need, even to do something trivial.
We, the staff of the hospital and the college haven’t lost hope despite the huge psychological burden that we have to deal with as a result of witnessing what is happening to our patients on a daily basis.
As you might all be aware of:
• We haven’t been paid our well-deserved salaries for the last seven months, our extra–time payments for nearly 13 months,
• We are unable to withdraw whatever amount of money we have had in governmental and private banks because of the complete shutdown of banking service
• We have nothing to feed our families and ourselves
Against all odds, however, we have continued to serve our patients with whatever supplies are at our disposal!
We have:
• tried to produce fluids locally to clean infected wounds,
• beg business people or residents in the city to give us detergents, soap, bed sheets, and other linen for free or on credit to be able to keep the hospital running.
We have used and are still using expired drugs when that is the only option left. We have tried to give care to those in the most urgent need and ask others to wait to know that those who are waiting are also getting closer to hapless conditions.
Our neurosurgery team has decided to operate on patients with problems in the brain just based on clinical examinations, without having the support of CT scan and/or MRI images which have both been not functional for many months because spare parts could not reach our city due to the complete blockage.
Supplies that we used to get for free from donors and partners, as well as business counterparts, have not reached our hospital for the last six months.
As a result, children who needed shunt surgeries are left to die, those with treatable cancers are denied their rights and those with fractures are forced to wait while being immobilized.
Those who could easily have been saved with hemodialysis are dying. Patients who have had dialysis for years at our hospital are forced to die just because the supplies that could have been brought are not allowed to reach us.
The world is tested with COVID19. Add a large-scale, full-fledged War on it. Then add a siege on it. Imagine this three combined in a poor region that struggles for survival even in times of peace and stability.
We earnestly believe that there are very good people out there in Ethiopia, the horn of Arica, Africa, and the rest of the world who could be the advocates of our patients, our health professionals, and our people. We wonder how the world lets this man-made crisis continue unabated while it has all the capacity and the means it needs to stop it.
We, therefore, humbly and respectfully request all health professionals in Ethiopia, Africa, and the world to be the voice of our patients and stand with us in our effort to end the crisis. We also request the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia, different UN and other international organizations, all the other local partners, NGOs as well as international partners to intervene and bring the misery of several months to an end.
Whatever the cause of the war is, it cannot be right or ethical to deny patients lifesaving health care. Neither can it be justified to completely withhold a hospital budget for several months as if it is never the responsibility of the government of Ethiopia to let a hospital carry on its activities and deliver health to innocent civilians in urgent need of care.
We, people in the world, live on a tiny planet and our destinies are intertwined. It would be very heartbreaking to see those with the power and capacity do nothing except viciously say that they are “concerned”, “very concerned”, and “gravely concerned.”
It is already very late but those national, continental, and global authorities in health, as well as governments and organizations responsible for solving such problems, can still avert a catastrophe.
We have seen the world do that before and we, your fellow brothers and sisters, believe and hope against hope that you will do the same this time around as well.
Truly yours,
Doctors and other Health Professionals of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital – College of Health Sciences, at Mekelle University
January 4, 2022

UN must apply precautionary principle of genocide response to Tigray

A grandmother lies mortally wounded by an Ethiopian drone attack on civilians in Southern Tigray in December 2021

Using euphemisms instead of the word, genocide, does not save lives or stop genocide. Instead of applying the precautionary principle of the UN Geneva Convention the delay in the official recognition of genocide directed against the people of Tigray and by Eritrea, Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates, and Turkey  follows a sad pattern previously seen in Rwanda, Darfur, and Bosnia. Rather then directly confronting the offenders with the truth of an ongoing genocide the international community is once again delaying declaration of genocide based on the false hope proven by previous catastrophic experience that using lesser terms will allow diplomacy to bring a change in behavior. Using lesser terms only empowers the genocidal power to continue deprivation and killing.

Ethnic cleansing ( a term created during the Bosnia war), population displacement, and civil war are examples of terms that are lesser then genocide and do not trigger international sanctions. A years long total blockade of Tigray has resulted in total lack of health care and food supplies while targeted attacks on civilians have together resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and continues to threaten millions in Tigray as already documented by the UN. 

Academic study of this failure to respond has been well studied by public health researchers.  Using euphemisms instead of the term genocide always resulting in more death and destruction. Because the cost of human lives has so often been catastrophic the United Nations Convention in 1948 was created to function with a Precautionary Principle which stresses early intervention to stop the killing as soon as possible. Once reasonable suspicion is raised the burden of proof is changed from those suspecting the genocide to those carrying it out under international agreement. Despite this the 20th century saw over 170 million deaths from genocide.

Ethiopia and Turkey now openly attacking UN humanitarians in Tigray

UN staff member Michael Hiluf was killed by an Ethiopian directed drone attack

We know that Turkish mercenary forces are the ones often operating drone attacks in Tigray and in fact Turkish flags are now flying over Ethiopian communities. During this Christmas season these operators had the audacity and inhumanity to attack a United Nations convoy carrying UN staff. Is Ethiopia now becoming a colony of Turkey?

Michael Hiluf was traveling with his daughter while traveling from Alamata to Mekelle when Turkish drones killed him and injured others. Everyday dozens of civilians are killed on the streets of villages and towns in Tigray. Because of the complete blockade of food, medicine, and fuel there is nothing that can be done to help this innocent lives adding to the loss. 

The killing of UN staff and innocent civilians is only cementing in place the clear reality that Ethiopia and its allies in genocide are committed in their evil purpose. This purpose is driven by the belief that any means of annihilation of the Tigray people is appropriate to eliminate ethnicity and culture which is not Amharic dominant. This is reinforced by an infrastructure of media propaganda, Amhara academics, clerico-fascists, and revisionist history of Ethiopia artificially synthesized by biased sources.

The impetus on this growing evil grows stronger when the UN and the Western democracies who have claimed to stand for human rights and democracy since World War II only remain silent. 

Ethiopia promise no drone use against civilians may allow lawsuits in USA

Drone strikes against civilians in Southern Tigray from drones sold to Ethiopia by UAE and Turkey are continuing

New revelations that Turkey and UAE forced Ethiopia to sign agreements promising no drone use against civilians provides insight into potential legal action against Ethiopia in the USA.

As a way to cover themselves from later sanctions, litigation from victims, and complaints of blasphemy against Islam sources are now reporting that Turkey and the United Arab Emirates had Ethiopia sign agreements regarding the use of drones purchased.  Apparently this was the message given to United States Horn of Africa Special Representative, Jeffrey Feltman, during his visits to those countries. No doubt these two Muslim countries foresaw potential criticism and legal action arising from these controversial sales and thus covered themselves with this pre-agreement.

These agreements to only proper military use of drones could be key pieces of evidence that Ethiopia not only obtained these weapons but agreed to use them only against military targets and not against civilians. As a member of the United Nations Ethiopia is a signatory to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other conventions against civilian targeting in war and against genocide which forbids these immoral actions.

There is a law in the United States, the Alien Tort Statue, first passed in 1789 and then extended into the Torture Victim Protection Act in 1991 and signed by President George H.W. Bush, which has been used successfully in cases involving torture, state-sponsored sexual violence, extrajudicial killing, crimes against humanity, war crimes and arbitrary detention. This extension of 1991 gives similar rights to U.S. citizens and non-citizens alike to bring claims for torture and extrajudicial killing committed in foreign countries.

The government of Ethiopia as well as government owned entities like Ethiopian airlines maintain assets in the United States in the banking system, properties, and other financial vehicles. These may be now be at risk of litigation to compensate the tens of thousands of victims in the Ethiopian murder and violation of Tigray, Oromo, and other victims.

Since its founding Islam has called for very strict adherence to rules of war by the Prophet Mohammed and later written by his General Abu Bakr which are often referred to as the Ten Rules for the Muslim Army. Clearly Turkey and UAE where aware of this potential conflict to their avowed religion in selling drones to Ethiopia. Whether these written agreements to Ethiopia would protect them from litigation is open to question?

O people! I charge you with ten rules; learn them well!

Stop, O people, that I may give you ten rules for your guidance in the battlefield. Do not commit treachery or deviate from the right path. You must not mutilate dead bodies. Neither kill a child, nor a woman, nor an aged man. Bring no harm to the trees, nor burn them with fire, especially those that are fruitful. Slay not any of the enemy’s flock, save for your food. You are likely to pass by people who have devoted their lives to monastic services; leave them alone.