Poor 2022 cereal crop forecasts for Tigray means worse famine

The Tigray and Ethiopia crop forecast for 2022 predicts poor yields

The forecast for growing cereal crops (teff, sorghum, maze, and wheat) in Tigray and Ethiopia in 2022 is poor for Tigray and questionable  for Northern Ethiopia due to below average rainfall predictions based upon meteorological data and satellite sensors. Tigray cannot grow enough food to escape famine without receiving food aid. Normally there is a second season harvest which is more dependent on good rains then the first. The Ethiopian government continues the complete blockade of food and medicine to Tigray.

Without outside food aid from international sources such as the World Food Program this years crop in Tigray will be very insufficient to relieve the ongoing and worsening famine affecting more then 1 million Tigrayans and threatening ultimately another 5 to 6 million. Even for Ethiopia, the war spending in excess of $4 billion since the war with Tigray started will make it difficult to meet its needs even outside of Tigray without major purchases and/or aid. 

The Famine Early Warning systems Network predicts expanding conflict and prolonged drought expected to drive record-level and extreme need in 2022.Crisis level shortages of food will continue in Tigray while much of Ethiopia will also face stress.

Although Ethiopia claimed to withdrawal from Tigray last season to allow planting, Abiy Ahmed appointed official, Abraha Desta, said this was a lie and explained that seeds and farm equipment were sent to Eritrea as well that farmers were prevented from planting. While Ethiopia denied famine, Desta claimed it was a crisis causing many deaths. Eritreans also ransacked food aid during their occupation of Tigray. Just this week an Ethiopian attack on a community mill which farmers in Tigray need to make their crops into flour was destroyed. No seed supplies, fertilizer, or farm equipment has been allowed to be delivered to Tigray since the conflict began in November 2020. Most farmers depend upon farm animals to plow and carry heavy loads in their work but many animals were killed by Eritreans and Ethiopia forces.

Abiy Ahmed has not improved health, education, living standards for Ethiopians

The cost of living in Addis Ababa and other major cities of Ethiopia is beyond what most workers can afford.

Unfortunately those who think Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed has been transformed into the mythical state of “Wakanda” are suffering delusions of grandeur. For most Ethiopians health, education, and standards of living remain at the bottom of the barrel even for Africa. Abiy Ahmed and his supporters tout Ethiopian progress into a modern democratic state linked to emergence from Western democracy influence. The reality is that even the parts of Ethiopia not directly involved in war remain at or near the bottom of global human development scales even by comparison with other African states. While many Abiy Ahmed supporters are successful diaspora who have some education which allowed them to live middle class lives in Western democracies they care little about the countryside farmers who have seen only misery under Abiy Ahmed. Even while Tigrayans are suffering a catastrophic blockade of all life’s necessities the rest of Ethiopia has not fared well either.

While Abiy Ahmed has been placing pretty lights on the streets of Addis Ababa, building parks, and a few fancy museums in Addis Ababa which serves only the top 4% of the population meanwhile in the countryside where 88% live in poverty nothing positive has happened. Educational and health budgets have been slashed. Water projects abandoned. Prior to the onset of war in November 2020 one in four Ethiopians in the countryside required international aid for basic food stuffs. With millions displaced, locust outbreaks, and climate changes which have all been ignored by an Ethiopian government fixated on killing Tigrayans this need has increased.

While Ethiopia expects citizens to average 8.8 years of schooling the real number according to the latest United Nations Development Report is a paltry 2.9 years. This is basically the worst in the world. Abiy Ahmed and his supporters are part of an elite class which adds to the inequality rating of 43% for Ethiopia again one of the world’s worst. The overall disaster of life for most Ethiopians is expressed in the Multidimensional Poverty Index which combines health, education, and living standards which again finds Ethiopia near the bottom.

Amhara Orthodox theology of economia allows ruthless war of starvation and killing

Menelik II began Amharic expansion with ruthless war using the theological principle of economia

The world is disgusted at the malevolent indifference of Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian government to the starvation and torment constantly applied to the innocent Tigray population. The world must understand the origin of a twisted blasphemous manifest destiny of Amharic domination that began with the death of Yohannes IV the last Tigray Emperor of Ethiopia in 1889.

Similar to Europe there was a strong imperial character to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church which existed with the monarchy. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church developed quite independently of the Roman Catholic Church and also somewhat isolated from the Eastern Orthodoxy as well with its own special characteristics including the concept of Jesus Christ incarnation of human and God being indivisible. This concept is called Tewahedo and often the Ethiopian Orthodox Church uses this name in short. A very important concept for the clergy was Donatism which stated that priests had to be perfect examples of the followers of Christ otherwise they could not carry out their sacred functions of the Eucharist, Blessings, and Forgiveness, and Counsel to the Emperor. This concept which is not seen in the Western Church empowers Tewahedo  to have tremendous influence over the secular government. They can forgive any sin and counsel any heinous act.

The Byzantine founder, Constantine, greatly admired by Tewahedo followers believed that although Jesus teaches peace and love the imperfect soul of man will inevitably bring war. Whenever possible the concept of  akrievia (Greekακριβεια)which is to strictly follow the peaceful path must be sought. However in a fallen world where human weakness has brought chaos Economia(Greekοἰκονομίαoikonomia) is allowed to temporarily break God’s commandments. The end will justify the means.  Tewahedo  clergy leadership has the power to give temporary dispensation for committing of even mortal sins to facilitate Amharic destiny.

Although previous Tigray rulers including Ras Alula sought some expansion from Tigray into Eritrea and Johannes temporarily captured Gondar it was after the death of Yohannes IV when Menelik II came into power that Amharic expansion began with the application of economia theological support for barbarism and cruelty. Killing, torture, theft of land, and enslavement were morally justified towards the Oromo, Southern People, and Muslims of the Western Ethiopia to achieve the goal of building the Amharic Empire.  In the last decade of the 19th century, Amharic expansion violently captures the regions of the Oromo, Sidamo, and Somali lands tripling it’s territory and making a new capital, Addis Ababa, out of the former FinFinne.

 

 

 

Abiy Ahmed leadership is unacceptable says Nobel Peace Prize Committee

Ethiopian Prime Minister addressed the United Nations in September 2020 promising extensive democratic reforms and press freedoms. All of these promises have been broken.

Today the Nobel Prize committee said Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize has a “special responsibility to end the conflict and contribute to peace” in Ethiopia where Tigray remains under a complete blockade.  About the current situation in Tigray they added “The humanitarian situation is very serious, and it is not acceptable that humanitarian aid does not emerge to a sufficient degree”.

Once seen as the emergent African nation of prosperity and democracy instead its honor and status has fallen precipitously  to competing with North Korea, Iran, and Eritrea for the most evil pariah. Everyday at least 40 children die of starvation, 50 innocents are killed by air or drone strikes, all the while over 7 million Tigrayans have continued to be without food, medicine, power, travel ability, or communication.  More then one hundred thousand are held in concentration camps in Western Tigray, in the areas around Addis Ababa, Afar, parts of the Southern Nations regions of Ethiopia, and even now in Eritrea. 

Once a champion of free speech and free press, Ethiopia has jailed more journalists than any other African nation. So called terrorism laws allow journalists to be jailed indefinitely without due process for printing any information not explicitly approved by the government.

Estimated to be more than $60 million in debt within the next year, government estimates that the pre-war debt would take 3 years to pay if there was greater than 8% growth are now impossible. In reality it may take a whole generation if ever. The per capita income has dropped to $700, birr has halved in value, Ethiopian bonds are now rated junk, and world wide interest in investment in unstable Ethiopian state has withered to almost nothing.  Chinese news sources have indicated they continue to withhold $339 million in further loans because Ethiopia is unstable.

Ethiopia talking to USA now because economically has no choice

Ethiopia’s massive foreign debt to China and Western democracies will not be continued with Chinese financing alone. Photo from South China Morning Post

The Ethiopian Prime Minister is talking to the United States after a period of defiant silence because Ethiopia’s economic survival is threatened. Ethiopia cannot survive economically and continue the Tigray war indefinitely. Take a class in basic economics about nations and you quickly learn about “gun vs butter”. All nations need both. Now Abiy Ahmed is learning that lesson.

As reported earlier this year in the influential South China Morning Post and later by the Global reporting center in The World, China is at a crossroads about how much more it can lend to Ethiopia.  The Chinese are the first to say they did not cause the Ethiopian conflict with Tigray and other groups. This conflict works against Ethiopian prosperity and debt repayment.

Abiy Ahmed has said in the past he would always prefer loans from the International Monetary Fund or World Bank which he equates to “borrowing from one’s mother” rather then the Chinese because the terms of Chinese loans are high interest rates with short repayment schedules. In addition to which there are hidden costs that Ethiopia bears by “guaranteeing” the loans against business failure.

At an estimate of Ethiopia’s debt exceeding $60 billion by the end of 2022 and no agreement yet reached with special negotiators, China and France, for the IMF it is clear that Ethiopia will need to negotiate with the West to stay afloat. In the past Ethiopia tried to “play off Europe vs China” but now the bet that China or even the Middle East alone are a way to finance Ethiopia’s economic growth appears to have been a grave misjudgment.

Biden tells Ethiopia what is necessary to restore USA relations

If Ethiopia wants restoration of previous relation with the United States it must meet certain conditions

The discussion today between US President Joe Biden and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Amed has not resulted in any immediate appreciable change but clearly points to some inescapable realities.

Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party now understand moving totally away from Western democracies is not the best path for developing Ethiopia. At the same time the United States has consistently stated that the pre-conflict borders of Tigray had to be respected, air strikes to civilians must stop, detentions must stop, and negotiations for peace must honestly begin in cooperation with the African Union. The only way to restore previous trade and assistance status is through this route.

After more then one year of war, nothing has been accomplished by the Ethiopian government except thousands of deaths, millions displaced, destruction of billions in domestic and foreign businesses, and the return of Ethiopia to the title of poorest country in the world.

 

Prominent Amhara website Borkena publishes harsh criticism of Abiy Ahmed leadership

An opinion piece in Borkena says Abiy Ahmed is “out of his mind

While last week Abiy Ahmed supporters were celebrating “victory” over Tigray this week is seeing a new fast growing dissension in the Amhara ranks. Recent actions by the Prime Minister are fueling protest.  Instead of Ethiopian unity so vividly propagandized we now are reminded of Biblical Gospel in Mark 3:25 ” A house divided against itself cannot stand”.

Dissatisfaction and outright anger at Abiy Ahmed from Amhara who were previously enthusiasts seems to be growing. Shiferaw Abebe, who may be a faculty member at Bahir Dar University, in heartland of the FANO Amhara militia group and home to many Amhara elites supporting Amharic dominance, published a very critical long statement critical of Abiy Ahmed in the prominent pro-Amharic website  Borkena.

The words written are harshly disparaging the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s actions beginning with the title, “Amnesty for the criminals, cold heart for the victims”. This is followed by the subtitle, “He is out of his mind”.  Abebe and many other Amharas were deeply aggravated about the release of a few older TPLF prisoners. At the same time Abebe is complaining that Abiy Ahmed cares little to nothing about the civilian casualties suffered in the Amhara invasion but instead was only concerned with his own safety.

He further says that Ethiopians should protest the management of the whole war, the Defense Minister Prof. Berhanu Nega and Dr. Belete Molla should resign. Abebe questions if there has been a real victory. As regards Ethiopia’s debt he is calling for Abiy Ahmed to reveal to the Ethiopian people the severity of the war costs and level of debt.

Could Tigray have a “special case” independence like Somaliland?

Hargeisa, capital of Somaliland, is a thriving peaceful city. Could Mekelle become the same?

Could Tigray in the near future begin to function as a “special case” independent case like nearby Somaliland? If the Tegaru, Irob, and Kunami of Tigray decide they do want independence will they have to wait for international approval or could they at least initially follow the Somaliland model? Whether Tigray will eventually remain a part of Ethiopia or function as an independent state is yet to be answered? The leaders of Tigray have argued that the Ethiopian constitution allows separation from Ethiopia.

An eastern neighbor of Ethiopia is the self governed state called Somaliland. In 1960 the northern part of the colonized Somalia was freed from Italy and the Southern part, what now makes up Somaliland, was freed from Britain. Initially the plan was for the two to join into one Somalia but the Isaaq clan of Somaliland and their allies never got along with the northern clans.

Today Somaliland is considered a “special case“. Not officially recognized as a state but carrying on business, having currency, and a national identification system. There are international flights from some countries.

While Somalia to the north has had ongoing violence and terrorism disrupting its development Somaliland has been at peace since 2008. Yet there are factions in Africa and beyond that have been remiss to offer clear independence status to Somaliland for fear that it will only encourage more separatist movements in Africa.

Many of the borders of African states were carved out by colonial powers artificially combining different ethnicities and cultures together creating tensions.  To some extent many argue that Ethiopia was always an empire of nations rather than a single state. The Amharic monarchy who took over the former Abyssinia in the 18th and 19th century then began to acquire the modern state of Ethiopia colonizing Afar, Somali, and the Southern peoples as well dominating the former kingdoms of the Oromo and Tigray region into a single empire.

Has Ethiopia reached the stage where yearning for peace overwhelms?

Air strike victim at Shire hospital in Tigray this week

A day after Ethiopian Orthodox Christmas could there be developments pointing to a possible negotiation for peace in Ethiopia?

This week the world press has been flooded with images and stories of children starving or victimized by drone strikes. Abiy Ahmed has released a few Tigray and Oromo leaders held in jail. A “nomore” rally in Addis Ababa originally planned for today has been cancelled. The Tigray Defense Force has gone into mostly defensive mode with the exception of moving into Western Tigray. Ethiopia’s debts will top $60 billion this year. Starvation continues to climb in Tigray. For now it appears Tigray will not take over Ethiopia nor will Ethiopia capture Tigray.

Walt Whitman, famous American poet who also served as a journalist and volunteer nurse in war casualty hospitals,  in his writings of the American Civil war documented the stages of public attitude toward war as it progresses. At first there are parades and patriotic talk, then as more die and increasing resources are used up a call to find strength for sacrifice, and finally comes a time when the mounting suffering causes all parties to seek an end. 

From his book, Drum Taps
Title: Over the carnage rose a prophetic voice
Over the carnage rose prophetic a voice,
Be not dishearten’d, affection shall solve the problems of freedom
yet,
Those who love each other shall become invincible,
They shall yet make Columbia victorious.
Sons of the Mother of All, you shall yet be victorious,
You shall yet laugh to scorn the attacks of all the remainder of the
earth.

Has Ethiopia reached the state yet when the yearning for peace becomes overwhelming?

 

Christmas message love thy neighbor ባልንጀራህን ውደድ is lost in Ethiopia

The world saw an infant named Surafel dying of starvation in a Tigray hospital blocked from helping by the Ethiopian government during Christmas week

The birth of Jesus Christ celebrated by the Ethiopia Orthodox Church this week recognizes the son of God who was sent to teach human beings as creations of God how to live and relate to each other. Man’s justification by grace was a free gift however his salvation from sin had to be earned by following God’s rule over his creation through a transformation of the self. Quite definitively this stated that all men were created in God’s image. Each man has the potential for sin because God gave him absolute free will in the hope that he will voluntarily find happiness and fulfillment in life by following God’s instruction. However, each man has the potential for salvation as well. Although the voluminous Bible tells the story of man’s discovery of God the essence of Jesus teaching can be simplified into two statements. Love God above all else and love your neighbor as yourself.

Today in Ethiopia the leadership is celebrating a homecoming. Even though on their calendar it is the day to celebrate Jesus birth this fact on this day is at best a side show. This week the world has seen an infant, Surafel, dying of starvation in a Tigray hospital blocked from helping him by the Ethiopian government, the drone attack on an Eritrean refugee camp killing children, and copiously spewed statements of hate from numerous Ethiopians promoting genocide in defiance of Jesus message of love. It seems the love of God in Ethiopia once admired by the rest of the world has been replaced by idolatry to a deranged sense of Ethiopian nationalism which is really a façade for ethnic hatred.

The lure of power with its intoxicating effect on morality predicted in the Old Testament when the ancient Israelis requested a king once again seems to have come true in Ethiopia with Abiy Ahmed and his supporters. They have built a golden calf making an idol of Amharic nationalism to replace God.  Consumed with his own essence he ignores God’s command to love thine enemy and extend charity to him.

The ancient laws forbidding starvation, protecting innocents, and harboring a sense of forgiveness have apparently left the souls of leadership of Ethiopia in favor of greed, revenge, and bloodlust. They want a high place in the United Nations but defy the humanitarian goals which created its foundation in the aftermath of world war. Rather than seeking to be servants of God to better the life of others they harbor an insatiable hunger to acquire more power to wreck greater havoc on their brother.