Ethiopia persecuted intolerable terror not concern for the welfare of Tigray civilians

There was no attempt by the Ethiopian government to try the traditional approach of winning hearts and minds instead the strategy was one of one intolerable terror.

A review of the actions of military forces supporting Ethiopian invasion of Tigray since November 2020 demonstrates a strategy of persecuting intolerable terror to the civilian population to force an unconditional surrender contradicting the latest pronouncement from the Ethiopian government is that they have deep concern for the welfare of the Tigray. All the while  paradoxically calling for them to bare the sacrifice of suffering concurrently the punishing military operations against their elected leaders in the TPLF. They add that the Tigrayan people need to understand that their sacrifice is necessary during this military operation because ultimately it will be to their benefit.

Over the past two years we have heard and seen time and again from Abiy Ahmed supporters that the military action and removal of human rights of the Tigray people by Ethiopia was necessary. The Ethiopian Prime Minister complained following his “withdrawal” from Tigray in 2021 that he could not persuade the Tigrayans to stop supporting the TPLF. His Social Minister Daniel Kibret said that the Tigrayan people should be totally erased from history. Other leaders in the Amharic community stated that Tigrayans should be killed at birth.

Just to review what has been well documented since the onset of conflict in November 2020. In fact lets start even before that. Whilst about 3 years ago Abiy Ahmed gave a speech to the Ethiopian Parliament that the TPLF was a good example of government that works for its constituency just a year later he called them terrorists. At the time the leaders of the TPLF had pretty much left Addis Ababa and focused on Tigray. They had accepted the change in leadership. Yet Abiy Ahmed and his coalition of Amhara supporters decided that they all of sudden wanted no tigray in the parliament at all so they outlawed the TPLF.

At the same time in the year before the conflict Tigrayans were removed from administrative posts, academic counsels, and budgets for everything in Tigray began to be sharply cut. As the Tigrayans were no longer allowed in Parliament they had no voice. Amhara Prosperity Party members created and voted on a proposal that they were “Terrorists” without any due process. The Ethiopian Constitution which clearly states that the different regional states have a right to maintain defense forces and forbids one region’s defense forces from attacking another.

We know that a military buildup occurred in the regional states adjacent to Tigray well before November 2020. In anticipation of a bloody conflict, the Ethiopian federal government had set medical teams to care for military casualties month before. The “peace agreement” between the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea had contained an agreement for military alliance against Tigray. An immediate payment of $ 6 billion was given to Eritrea quickly at the onset of hostilities.

If the Ethiopian government was so concerned for the welfare of the Tigrayans consistently through this conflict the evidence to the contrary stands against this claim. The Ethiopian and Eritrean military forces have killed thousands of civilians, destroyed villages, farms, factories, homes, and places of business estimated to be worth worth one hundred billion birr by the Tigray Interim Administration appointed by Abiy Ahmed before Mekelle was retaken by the TDF.

Thousands of Tigrayans not even in Tigray proper have been detained without due process, allowed no right of free speech, had assets and property confiscated without cause, blocked from receiving medical care, and driven off land their families have worked for generations. Their representation in the Parliament has been effectively abolished.

For more than 2 years Tigray has endured an almost complete blockade of food, medical supplies, and fuel has been performed by the Ethiopian government. Electricity, phone service, and internet have been blocked. Clearly the intent of the Ethiopian government to was to convince the leadership of the TPLF that they would make the Tigrayan people suffer more and more hardship as a way of convincing the TPLF to give up. There was no attempt by the Ethiopian government to try the traditional approach of winning hearts and minds instead the strategy was one of one intolerable terror.

Howard University venue for Ethiopian government healthcare claims claiming Tigray inclusion

Open Letter to Howard University October 13, 2022

Subject: Use of Howard University Venue to promote Ethiopian government healthcare achievement while Tigray under  medical blockade

Dear Sir/Madamn,

Many of us who are concerned with the dire situation in Tigray and are concerned about the use of a Howard University venue for the promotion of a government deeply involved in the deprivation and violations of a minority. Howard University is a historic and important institution in American history which was created to offer those who were denied opportunities a chance to reach their potential which also enriched America as a whole. Today I am writing you about something that denigrates the legacy of your fine institution.

At this moment the 6 million plus population of Tigray is faced with an essentially complete blockade of medical supplies, fuel, and electricity. The 8 major hospitals including the tertiary Federal Mekelle Hospital which is a part of the Federal Mekelle University are not functioning. I was present in Tigray since 2015 including the first three months of the Tigray occupation by the Ethiopian government which began in November 2020.

Even during this time before the Tigray Regional State retook control in July 2021 the Ethiopian Ministries of Health under Dr. Lia Tadesse and Education essentially stopped all support of the hospital and university When Dr. Tadesse came to visit Mekelle she refused to have a meaningful discussion with Tigray health and university officials and just used the visit as a photo opportunity.

Over a half a million people in Tigray have died from lack of health care, starvation, and civilian casualties from military targeting by Eritrean and Ethiopian forces. Thousands of women were raped and mutilated but their suffering is aggravated by the lack of medical services.

Dr. Tadesse has published glowing reports of medical progress in all the “substates” of Ethiopia while neglecting to declare that her office which she oversees provides NOTHING to Tigray. The only medical supplies come from foreign donors and only a trickle of what is donated is allowed to pass through a government inspection. This restricts the vast majority of aid reaching Tigray. While Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed, the Minister of Women and Children, resigned her position when she confirmed the violence against women, Dr. Tadesse has been silent.

This week the United States State Department in cooperation with 6 other countries called upon the government of Ethiopia which is represented by Dr. Tadesse and others who are being given a venue in your university to stop blocking humanitarian access to Tigray and to address the human rights violations that have occurred.

Finally and not the least important, last night I was on the phone with a Tigrayan student at Howard University who informed me that on campus and in Washington DC in general, there is an underground network of Ethiopia government supporters who frequently and in fact openly intimidate Tigrayans and Eritreans. She is fearful to discuss the issues on campus. Imagine the sentiments felt by students who have seen their families killed, violated, displaced, and deprived when their institution is supporting the agent of their despair without reasonable allowance for fair discussions of opposite views.

Ethiopian evil debtera magic versus Tigray Christian mercy in war

Daniel Kibre, a “deacon” and Social Affairs Ethiopian Minister defames Tigrayans as demons and subhumans worthy of extinction. He and other EOC followers tell their recruits that special blessings are upon to protect them from harm and punish the Tigray. While the Tigray leadership treats POWS with mercy and has EOC priests from Tigray pronounce forgiveness for Ethiopian POWS after their rehabilitation. In the background is a rare photo of a secret book of spells used by debtera.

Religious belief and custom are affecting the Ethiopian Tigray conflict. Ethiopia is relying on ancient beliefs of magic while Tigray counters with traditional mercy. The Ethiopian leadership under Abiy Ahmed is trying to use traditional mysticism and imperial religious stature rendered by Donatistic convictions to motivate and justify its sadistic aggression while the Tigray leadership is countering these using the conventional Christian virtue of mercy. The Ethiopian leadership of Abiy Ahmed and his religious supporters use the traditionally high stature of religious leadership along with the populations belief that they may have supernatural powers which can break established moral norms to achieve ends in war resulting in a perfect recipe for genocide.

Daniel Kibre, a “deacon” and Social Affairs Ethiopian Minister defames Tigrayans as demons and subhumans worthy of extinction. He falsely pronounces that Tigrayan leadership, Tigray Peoples Liberation Front are atheists and thus not eligible for Christian mercy.  The deceased leader of the TPLF, Meles Zenawi, was a practicing Ethiopia Orthodox believer and is buried on holy ground at Holy Trintiy in Addis Ababa.

Kibret’s actions are exhibiting the classic role of a debtera. He and other EOC followers tell their recruits that special blessings are upon to protect them from harm and punish the Tigray. While the Tigray leadership treats POWS with mercy and has EOC priests from Tigray pronounce forgiveness for Ethiopian POWS after their rehabilitation. 

There was not much communication with the Eastern Orthodox Church or Roman Church for hundreds of years due in part to the expansion of Islam which isolated Ethiopia . Many cultural factors including the close relationship of the clergy to the imperial state  and a strongly pious population created a unique form of Christianity which affected their daily lives.

The power of religious leaders was enhanced by two strong cultural developments. While much of Western Christianity rejected Donatism, the idea that for a priest to be holy enough to prepare the Eucharist or give blessings must be in a state of grace with God, for Ethiopia this become the rule. This greatly enhanced their status as advisors to government leadership as well as in communicating to the population giving them a great power of influence over both.

Secondly, the Eastern tradition of great attention to mysticism was greatly stressed in Ethiopia. A few elite clergy and lay practitioners in each generation were taught secret prayers and rituals which could cure the sick, affect natural events, place curses, or even change behaviors of individuals or groups. This prayers and rituals were closely guarded secrets. Both  selected clergy and a special class of religious zealots, debtera,  have special access to secret texts which describe special prayers and rituals which can perform alleviation of suffering such as  healing of the sick but also can be used to do harm. Anthropology researcher, Diego Maria Malara,  noted  

Yet, while drawing on this tradition, the debtera’s ritual repertoire also transgresses some of its central proscriptions. Transgression, in this context, does not abolish the boundaries it violates, but reinstates their legitimacy. This dynamic prompts debtera to engage in imaginative ethical reassessments of the unstable relationship between illicit knowledge and official tenets. Through their transgressive performances,debtera enable their clients to secretly address and actualise sinful desires that otherwise remain unacknowledged or are suppressed by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.

 

Tigray famine has higher death rate then 1980s Ethiopian famine

The severe restriction of aid shipments to Tigray may result in higher percentage of deaths of those affected by famine then occurred in the 1980s Ethiopian famine.

Ethiopian blockade of Tigray has caused a famine creating a higher percentage of death of those affected then the Ethiopian 1980s famine. Considering the similarities of the 1983 to 1985 famine of Ethiopia under the Derg Regime to that of the current Tigray siege we can estimate that at least 125,000  may actually have died so far. In the following analysis one striking difference is that the percentage of the population severely affected in Tigray may be higher then in the previous famine. The difference is due to the fact that international aid was eventually allowed by the Derg Regime after the international community became involved beginning in 1984 whereas the Ethiopian government has not relented and imposed even greater obstructions then did the Derg Regime.

Currently there is a lack of means to adequately assess the number of deaths from the Ethiopian blockade driven starvation in Tigray, however, we can make estimate looking at what we know about the death rate that occurred in widespread famine of Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985 when the Derg Regime like the Abiy Ahmed government of today used starvation as a weapon to subjugate the populace, restrict agricultural production, and food aid initially.

The United States government estimates that 80% of the Tigrayan population is food insecure compared with only 15% before the onset of Ethiopian Tigray conflict in November 2020. Whereas international aid agencies determined more than 100 trucks a day were needed since that time the actual number that arrived was miniscule.  Tigray agricultural production was severely restricted as admitted by members of the Tigray Interim Administration with no supply of seed, fertilizer, destruction of farm animals  and equipment, as well as the displacement and murder of many farmers in the countryside.

The affect of the Ethiopian government induced famine on Tigray can be estimated by looking at the widespread famine that affected all of Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. At that time almost 10% of the population was severely affected leading to the deaths estimated to be between 300,000 to 1.2 million out of 40 million population.  Thus we can estimate that out of 4 million affected about 25% of those eventually died.

We can assume a conservative figure of 6.5 million to 7.0 million population in Tigray at the start of war. We can assume that 80% or 5 million are facing severe food insecurity. If 10% of these 5 million or 500,000 are severely affected we would expect that they would have at least a 25% death rate. This assumption this would bring us to the conclusion that 125,000 Tigrayans have died just from starvation since the onset of the Ethiopian Thus Tigray conflict is averaging  almost 63,000 deaths per year and will continue to do so until the blockade is stopped and food production returns to its pre-war levels.

 

 

Medical blockade prevents life saving c-sections for Tigray mothers and infants

A nurse midwife at Mekelle University Ayder Hospital tends to mother and a newborn prior to the invasion of Tigray in November 2020 and subsequent medical blockade. Source WHO

Destruction of health care facilities and blockade of medical supplies to Tigray by Ethiopian government cost the lives of Tigrayan mothers and newborns who need caesarian section.

International guidelines indicate at least 5% of births should be done via caesarian section (c-section) to preserve the life of the mother and/or infant. This is actually the most common operation done globally. Over the past two decades the availability of this life saving care in Africa including Tigray had dramatically reduced maternal and infant mortality. Still in Ethiopia as a whole the rates were in many regions less than 1% although Tigray was a little better at 2%. This indicated that this important service was insufficient to meet the needs.

Prior to November 2020 hundreds of c-sections were performed at Ayder Hospital yearly, the main tertiary teaching hospital in Tigray. This institution was also in the vanguard performing research and training nurses, midwives, physicians, and obstetrician gynecologists with an experienced faculty.

Following the invasion of Tigray by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces in November 2020 a progressive restriction of pre-natal,  birth, and post-natal care was placed upon Tigray by the Ethiopian government. For a year prior to the conflict budgets for health care coming from the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Women and Children, and the Ministry of Education (the tertiary hospital, Ayder in Mekelle, was a federal facility under MOE) began to be cut instead of receiving the usual 13% increase.

Dr Kahsay Gebremedhin at Ayder Hospital in Mekelle reported in June 2021 that although normally the hospital was performing about 500 deliveries for month it had increased to 700. Even with transportation problems patients were coming to Ayder because out of the 8 major hospitals in Tigray only Ayder was not totally ransacked and rendered unusable by invading Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. Additionally it was the only one with a working generator. Fuel embargoes have severely limited surgical services because the power blockade means generators are the only way to get power for surgical equipment like anesthesia machines, lights, and cautery units.

The exact number of births in Tigray now is unknown however it is estimated that about 30 births per 1000 population occur per year. This means that somewhere near 150,000 occur annually in Tigray. Using the 5% standard one could reasonable estimate that upwards of 7,500 c-sections would need to be done to fully protect maternal and newborn lives. This implies that thousands of mother’s and children’s lives will be lost.

 

Ethiopia National Bank foreign currency control reduces real spending for human needs

The National Bank of Ethiopia decides when and if any government payment or even private entity payment to a foreign supplier. Foreign currency payments can only occur with its approval.

While the Ethiopian government touts big increases in spending for things like agriculture, education, health care the reality is that this is a farce. Real spending is actually much lower due the hidden way approval for expenditures which require foreign currency payments are tightly controlled by the Ethiopian National Bank under the control of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. As an advisor to Mekelle University and other institutions on development I became familiar with how this two level process of approval works in reality. Only budget items that match the monthly priority list and when there is a relative surplus of foreign currency will ever be approved.

Whatever budget the Ethiopian Parliament in agreement with Abiy Ahmed agrees for spending the amount that is actually spent that year will be less. The National Bank sets priorities for which budget item foreign currency will be allowed to leave the country. Needless to say no foreign debtor will accept the birr. The greatest contributor of foreign currency inward to Ethiopia is Ethiopian Airlines and therefore they and the military are always first on the list.

With expenditures of $2 billion per annum in military weapons and costs related to fighting in Tigray, Oromia, and other places while loan allotments from international lenders have been reduced to 1/6 of what they were in 2019 this military cost is actually higher then the rest of the Ethiopian budget combined. The debt burden of the Ethiopian government is well above 30% of the gross domestic product such that it always is on the border of default in loan payments. To date this has resulted in dramatic reduction in loan distributions complicated also by Abiy Ahmed’s avoiding recommendations by foreign lenders or even to meet them.

Additionally although the Ethiopian government uses figures of birr , the Ethiopian currency, instead of international currency equivalents, the greater then 50% de-evaluation hides that real spending has not increased.

Even if the Ministry of Health, for example, approves budgets to buy reagents for lab tests or new diagnostic equipment as these things come from foreign producers requiring foreign currency payments their actual approval for payment for that year often never happens. 

Ethiopian blockade of medicine will cause African pandemics beyond deadly Tigray epidemics

Hemen Hagos, 1.5 months old Ethiopian child admitted with pertussis, also known as whooping cough, receives care at a hospital in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray region, Ethiopia September 9, 2022. REUTERS/Stringer

The Tigray siege of medical supplies by Ethiopia is causing deadly outbreaks of disease in children, adults, and domestic animals which will likely spread beyond Tigray borders into the whole Horn of Africa and beyond. Large migrations of displaced persons across the borders of Tigray to Sudan, Amhara, and Afar region continue as Ethiopia continues to attempt a military victory rather then peaceful end to the war.

As occurred during the initial invasion and occupation of the whole of Tigray many invading soldiers from Ethiopia who we know were known by the commanders of the Ethiopian forces to be HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) positive infected many Tegaru women and girls in their violations of civilians. Additionally in many cities and villages these forces sabotaged water supplies leaving the civilian population with no supply of potable water. The lack of electricity has not allowed the restoration of this clean water. The Ethiopian blockade has blocked the treatment of HIV which is allowing the HIV infections to progress to a full blown AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) which eventually results in disability and death. Children born of these untreated rape victims also usually become infected.

Children are more vulnerable to cholera then adults. The lack of antibiotics and intravenous hydration means those who ordinarily could be saved are dying.

Despite claims proven false of directing immunizations to Tigray by Ethiopian Minister of Health,Lia Tadesse, none have reached Tigray for many months. Following November 2020 only very limited immunizations insufficient to vaccinate a significant population were allowed. The United Nations, World Food Program, and other aid organizations have repeatedly been blocked from sending medical supplies to fight tuberculosis, malaria, HIV, water borne bacterial disease such as cholera, and immunizations for children. All their shipments either by plane and truck had to be approved by the Ethiopian government.

Subsequently doctors with Ayder Hospital in Mekelle and the Tigray Regional Health Bureau report that less than 10% of children are immunized against potentially disabling or deadly viral and bacterial diseases while before the Tigray invasion by Ethiopia and Eritrea the rates of immunization were approaching 90%.

There are no supplies to diagnose or treat deadly infections which affect not only food supplies but can also spread from animals to humans. Outbreaks of rabies and anthrax are rapidly increasing. Desperate for food doctors report some human deaths from consuming infected animals. 

Ethiopian economist says Ethiopian war crashing economy like a car without brakes

Luxury cars like a recent late model Mercedes Benz on sale on the Ezega internet site are selling at record prices of millions of birr.

The Addis Ababa newspaper, The Reporter, this week discussed an unusual paradox being seen in the collapsing Ethiopian economy due to the rapid birr devaluation and instability due to the ongoing war.  Simply put the wealthy are grabbing up high value assets while the poor and middle class are struggling just to meet daily needs. Amin Abdella (PhD) long time researcher as well as sectorial director at the Ethiopian Economics Association described how those with access to wealth in the form of foreign currency are buying up cars, buildings, real estate to liquidate their birr. He called it a “property craze”. This may explain why many wealthy Amhara in the country still support Abiy Ahmed as they are partaking of this temporary bonanza and do not yet comprehend it cannot last. The failure of the Ethiopian government under Abiy Ahmed to seek peace is continuing to devastate poor and middle income families..

Whilst the cost of living has reached record increases approaching 50% for many needs of daily living over the past two years causing the poor and middle class to struggle in paying rents, buying foods, fuel for their vehicles, and other essentials. Meanwhile the wealthy who have foreign currency assets are buying up real estate, cars, and other assets to the extent that it is driving inflation even higher. This abandonment of the birr is making the economy even worse. Even if the war stops today it will take years to recover the economy.

To make things worse, experts say investors’ disinterest in keeping their money in birr is already wreaking havoc on the whole economy.

“The price bubble does not stop at property. It has a domino effect on other services and goods,” … “The economy is in its worst shape and is now like a car that has lost its brakes.”

A tribute to the Tigray- Who they really are!

Tigray Defense Force returns to the capital, Mekelle, when many thought they were defeated.

I have watched many Ethiopians and Eritreans belittle and diminish the Tegaru people of Tigray as they have suffered through a gauntlet of pain, deprivation, violation, and isolation. Having been a physician, teacher, and researcher who lived with them for years I must denounce these fallacies. When tested beyond a tolerance which would break the reed instead they have bended and rebounded like a spring that has been compressed. Faith in God, tradition in valuing community over self, and a living memory of generations of struggle has tempered them as individuals as well as a society into a resilient and adaptive culture which has lasted thousands of years.

Though fierce and clever in battle when the threat has been extinguished an out pouring of mercy and kindness consistently emerges. They do not  dream of conquest but instead put the preservation of their neighbors and family as the priority. Following Abiy Ahmed’s coming to power they accepted the new era with the initial promise that it offered to them no threat. Little did the world know that a secret sinister plot contrived by Amharic expansionists allied with the Isaias Afeworki’s lust for power would surface like weeds in the garden of what was a developing modern nation of Ethiopia.

During the occupation of Mekelle I witnessed countless acts of charity including Tigray mothers giving food and blankets to enemy soldiers in hospital. Towns folk offering me enjera, cash, and water even when they had little for themselves or their families. Unarmed men walking Tigray women to protect them from invading predatory soldiers. The forming of a wall of unarmed citizens, Muslim, Orthodox,  and Catholic to protect their hospital, Ayder, against ravaging Eritreans which cost the lives of young men shot in the street without warning.

The Ethiopian constitution clearly states that regional states have the right to their own security forces and the right to autonomous rule. A Tigray election despised by Abiy Ahmed because he knew what would be the result rightfully reached. 

Do not call them rebels. They have paid the price many times to fight just to survive. The rebels were the Amharic expansionists and Eritreans.

 

We pray Ethiopia commit to a just peace now

The war on Tigray by Ethiopia and Eritrea cannot be justified. The human, moral, material, and financial costs out way any benefit of a futile attempt at Ethiopian dominance. Photo source DW

The war on Tigray by Ethiopia and Eritrea cannot be justified. The human, moral, material, and financial costs out way any benefit of a futile attempt at Ethiopian dominance.  The Ethiopian leadership would be wise to review the advice of Jesus in the Gospel of Luke 14 where Jesus tells the story of how a wise king should consider the cost of negotiation for peace versus war. Ethiopia must see the time for peace is now. The Tigray fight just to survive and prevent more horrible suffering seen during occupation and Ethiopia’s desire to establish dominance has yielded a high cost of human suffering. There can be no peace without absolute security of the people of Tigray to be free to self determine their future and have the means to defend that right. In this world history has shown that human rights violations eventually come to light. Ethiopian contrition and renewal to real democratic reform will hasten it’s return to respectability.

 Ethiopia’s reputation has plummeted to that paralleling North Korea and Eritrea resulting in economic sanctions from Western democracies. Turning alliance to China and Russia who base their foreign policy on favorable transactions to themselves which usually involves exploitation is shaky because they also see a region in turmoil with withering economic potential and stability. One cannot see how any Ethiopian can imagine that the alliance with Eritrea has benefited them. For who in Ethiopia is life now better then it was in 2018 when Abiy Ahmed came to power.?

The Tigray, Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict since November 2020 has come at great cost of Ethiopia, Tigray, and even Eritrea. Prior to the war the Ethiopian economy was growing with a stabilizing currency. There were dreams of becoming a middle class country within a generation. Yet today the economy has shrunken significantly with international lenders severely cutting loans. The total government debt exceeds $60 billion and rising due to inflation and weapons purchases. Meanwhile millions are displaced by war, drought, and insufficient food production.  More so of course in Tigray but still growing throughout the whole of Ethiopia.

Eritrea faces more sanctions and isolation. The false veil of friendly support for Amhara expansion has been removed revealing a dark ambition to control the whole of the Horn of Africa. 

The concept of creating textile and clothing manufacturing in Ethiopia by international companies has likely been dealt a permanent blow because a reassessment has revealed that the greater stability of Western Africa combined with the high cotton production there may make relocation favorable. 

Tigray has seen more than 500,000 people die from war, lack of health care, lack of food, power, and transportation. Infant and maternal mortality are sky rocketing.  Even in Ethiopia health expenditures have plummeted from a high of $23 per capita to perhaps less than $10 per capita. The high cost of necessary imports such as medical supplies versus the falling birr has reduced the quality of life and life expectancy for all but the minority of elites.

If Ethiopia wants to regain the reputation of respect and once again pursue a higher standard of living for its people peace is the only war forward. It is the only path to righteousness.