Tag: derg

Tigray famine has higher death rate then 1980s Ethiopian famine

The severe restriction of aid shipments to Tigray may result in higher percentage of deaths of those affected by famine then occurred in the 1980s Ethiopian famine.

Ethiopian blockade of Tigray has caused a famine creating a higher percentage of death of those affected then the Ethiopian 1980s famine. Considering the similarities of the 1983 to 1985 famine of Ethiopia under the Derg Regime to that of the current Tigray siege we can estimate that at least 125,000  may actually have died so far. In the following analysis one striking difference is that the percentage of the population severely affected in Tigray may be higher then in the previous famine. The difference is due to the fact that international aid was eventually allowed by the Derg Regime after the international community became involved beginning in 1984 whereas the Ethiopian government has not relented and imposed even greater obstructions then did the Derg Regime.

Currently there is a lack of means to adequately assess the number of deaths from the Ethiopian blockade driven starvation in Tigray, however, we can make estimate looking at what we know about the death rate that occurred in widespread famine of Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985 when the Derg Regime like the Abiy Ahmed government of today used starvation as a weapon to subjugate the populace, restrict agricultural production, and food aid initially.

The United States government estimates that 80% of the Tigrayan population is food insecure compared with only 15% before the onset of Ethiopian Tigray conflict in November 2020. Whereas international aid agencies determined more than 100 trucks a day were needed since that time the actual number that arrived was miniscule.  Tigray agricultural production was severely restricted as admitted by members of the Tigray Interim Administration with no supply of seed, fertilizer, destruction of farm animals  and equipment, as well as the displacement and murder of many farmers in the countryside.

The affect of the Ethiopian government induced famine on Tigray can be estimated by looking at the widespread famine that affected all of Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. At that time almost 10% of the population was severely affected leading to the deaths estimated to be between 300,000 to 1.2 million out of 40 million population.  Thus we can estimate that out of 4 million affected about 25% of those eventually died.

We can assume a conservative figure of 6.5 million to 7.0 million population in Tigray at the start of war. We can assume that 80% or 5 million are facing severe food insecurity. If 10% of these 5 million or 500,000 are severely affected we would expect that they would have at least a 25% death rate. This assumption this would bring us to the conclusion that 125,000 Tigrayans have died just from starvation since the onset of the Ethiopian Thus Tigray conflict is averaging  almost 63,000 deaths per year and will continue to do so until the blockade is stopped and food production returns to its pre-war levels.

 

 

Ethiopia has always been an empire not a nation for the Tigray

Tigray Defense Forces parade their success
Introduction
There is a global misperception often forwarded by Amhara expansionists that Ethiopia has been a nation for centuries. But instead the area we call Ethiopia came into being less than 200 years ago when Amharic kings become dominant over the Tigrayan monarchy and then conquered Cushitic peoples in Oromia, the Southern Nations, the Afar, and were “gifted” part of Somalia by European powers. In reality the Tigray have always thought of themselves as a nation in an empire.
 
Recently the world was stunned when the very small region of Tigray managed to retake most of its territory back from the federal forces of the Ethiopian national government last summer who had one of the largest armies in Africa. To those who know the past 100 years this is not so surprising. A look at the recent history of the Ethiopian empire, a collection of many ethnic groups struggling for dominance, over the past century lends insight to current events.
 
How Western Civilization Has Looked at Ethiopia
Many scholars had looked at what had happened to Ethiopia in the 19th and 20th centuries trying to understand its evolution and how it would progress. Donald Levine wrote in his work Greater Ethiopia: The Evolution of a Multiethnic Society that Ethiopia would develop a national identity due to experience of war, famine, religious conflict, trade development etc. The dominance of Amharic emperors during this time period until the late 1960s favored the development of an idealistic concept of Amharic elitism as a central theme as well. 
 
Although many languages both Cushitic and Semitic are spoken in Ethiopia, for approximately the past 150 years the Amhara leadership of the country (beginning with  the monarchy)  as well as the Ethiopian orthodox church essentially mandated that the Amhara language would be the official language of commerce and government. Elite schools and universities taught in Amharic thus its speakers were seen as superior to the non-speakers of Amharic. Those wishing to become “educated” had to learn Amharic. Political ideas and policies thus became mostly associated with this Amharic elitism.  Until just the past two decades attendance of the prestigious  Addis Ababa University was limited to the Amhara.
 
What is the Tigray Identity
The Tigray people claim their ancestry to the Axumite empire which was started by the Queen of Sheba, a Biblical figure, who lived thousands of years ago ( an aristocrat of  the ancient Saba people who lived about the eastern and western areas bordering the Red Sea and spoke a Semitic language). Legend has it she conceived a son with King Solomon of Israel and converted to Judaism. Centuries later the Axumite empire converted to Christianity under King Ezana. Although early kings of Northern Ethiopia were Tigray they eventually lost power to the Amhara whose background is also related to that of the Tigray. The Tigray have a long tradition of being a warrior clan. In fact going back centuries in both domestic battles and battles against foreign invaders their abilities as fighters and commanders of armies were always sought. At same time these qualities have always fostered suspicion by other ethnic groups especially when the military services of the Tigray were no longer needed.  Most recently the term Tigray is most often used to describe the region while the term Tegaru is coming more into use to describe its people and now even being used to differentiate them from Eritreans.
 
The Rise of the Tigray
The rise of the Tigray who make up only 6% of the population of Ethiopia to lead an alliance that would topple a powerful government without any outside assistance starting from essentially no resources was unexplainable to scholars. Daniel Young a journalist with the Sudan Times began to follow their rise in 1988 and eventually wrote the definitive scholarly work, The Peasant Revolution of Ethiopia.
Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia
He did numerous interviews with peasants after gaining their trust. He noted then as did others that although there has always been talk about a greater nation for the most part over the past century there have always been nationalist movements within Ethiopia. Ethiopia has always been a empire and not a nation. Although the goal of the Tigray (Tigray Peoples Liberation Front) was primarily to overthrow the Derg (a quasi communist-socialist multiethnic movement which included many military leaders and was supported by the Russian communist party) the TPLF developed the concept that to be successful they had to gain great support from the countryside peasants. One important component was they incorporated educated Tigray women into leadership roles. The Tigray were remarkable for developing and sticking to their ideals and goals, creating alliances, strong action against dissent for which they have been criticized, and finally for basing their strength from a bottom up approach which is significantly different then the Amhara elite model which is a top down scenario.
 
Bottom Up versus Elitist Lead Revolution
From a social science perspective there has always been controversy over whether a revolutionary movement can be driven by perceived peasant led initiatives (bottom up) or by elitist lead initiatives. The successful revolt of the Vietnamese against French Colonialism and American interference is often demonstrated as a model of the bottom up approach. Thus what we are seeing now is a repeat of this ongoing struggle in Ethiopia of peasant based vs elite based focus and empire vs nation identity once again. How will it turn out?
This article has been updated from its original form