Tag: Ethiopia

OLA forces reach Addis outskirts increased trade sanctions against Ethiopia coming

Abiy Ahmed meets with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey

At this moment multiple sources report Oromo Liberation Army elements are fighting in the neighborhood near Entoto Mountain on the edge of Addis Ababa just a short distance from the airport. At the same time Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a hasty visit to see the President Erdoğan of Turkey.  The Tigray Defense Force continues to advance toward both Bahir Dar and Gondar while also pushing into Western Tigray. The supply of weapons and trained combat soldiers seems to have run out for the Amhara militias trying a last stand near Bahir Dar and Gondar.

Meanwhile Germany and the United States are setting up to increase sanctions on the Ethiopian government.  Many are asking will the Prime Minister be able to come back if a take over of Addis is imminent?

Although there are all out call outs for volunteers many of the new fighters have no training and only sticks for weapons

Assuming for the moment his Prosperity Party will stay in power at least for a while recent diplomatic actions or lack there of predict poor relations with the United States. The snubbing of USAID Head Samantha Powers last week and now Jeffrey  Feltman, the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, by Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, raises the high likelihood that Ethiopia will be declared in violation of the AGOA which allows Ethiopian exports to the USA in hundreds of millions of dollars. Should the Ethiopian government survive which many seem to doubt at this point Ethiopia .

 

Graph of the trade balance between Ethiopia and the United States in millions of dollars

The United States State Department requests for peace talks with the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front by the Ethiopian government have been soundly rejected as well as requests for military forces invading Tigray to withdrawal, restoration of power, internet, access of aid and investigatory bodies to be allowed to enter Tigray. Growing impatience with the American State Department as well as members of Congress who have passed several resolution condemning the treatment of Tigrayans and the atrocities attributed to the Ethiopia and Eritrean fighting forces have resulted in no response.

U.S. total imports of agricultural products from Ethiopia totaled $151 million in 2019. Leading categories include: unroasted coffee ($130 million), nursery products ($6 million), spices ($3 million), planting seeds ($357 thousand), and wine and beer ($271 thousand)

Only 9% of total imports to Ethiopia come the United States. Ethiopia main imports are: foodstuffs, textile, machinery and fuel. Ethiopia main trading partners are: China (18 percent of total imports), Saudi Arabia (13 percent),  Russia and India (9 percent)

The African Growth and Opportunity Act of 2001 gave Ethiopia a chance to export 1800 different products to the United States duty free. However to participate in AGOA To meet AGOA’s there are strict eligibility requirements including ” countries must establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process.  Additionally, countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption and protect human rights.”

Ethiopia needs prayer and a reality check

For Ethiopians previously not affected by the Ethiopian Tigray conflict it is now time to come to reality. Now is the time for all to realistically assess where to go from here. It is a time for prayer and contemplation. Ethiopians not affected by the war so far need to realize they soon will be.

Wars always start too early and end too late. Having fantasy notions about a coming Ethiopian miracle will only cause more misery. Whatever becomes of Ethiopia is going to happen regardless of what further futile military action is done by Ethiopia.

Captured prisoners of the Amhara militia and Ethiopian National Defense Force on Mount Guna August 16, 2021 where the TDF repeated their historical victory which turned the tide against the Derg.

One in four people in all of Ethiopia are approaching a state of famine and for Tigray that is approaching 500,000. Ethiopian Airlines and mining interests are so disrupted by the war that the economy of Ethiopia is falling fast. Abnormal rain patterns as well as war now occurring in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Oromia, Beningshugal, Somali, and the SNNPNR will surely reduce the major harvest this year. Inflation for the year is approaching 50% and the birr may reach 75 to the US dollar very soon.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has left to meet Isaias in Eritrea and then on to Turkey. It may happen that the Bole Airport may be overtaken by Oromia Liberation Army forces before he makes it back if he really intends to comeback. So far Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has refused to negotiate but instead promising a massive counterattack which has never materialized. The Tigray and their allies have at least offered to negotiate.

At this point it is clear by many military and strategic analysts that Ethiopia cannot mount a significant counterattack to defeat Tigray. Now the Tigray Defense Force is being joined by fighters of liberation armies from Agew, Afar, Somali, Beningshugal, Oromia, and Gambella.

The Tigray Defense Force and their allies are driven by a need to free their people from perceived tyranny and abuse from Amhara elitism. The Amhara elites and their allies claim they want to preserve a chance for a unified Ethiopia that will become a more modern state. Unfortunately they cannot force their point of view upon others. As I and others have stated previously Ethiopian has always been an empire of subjugated nations. The prejudiced view of a united state of Ethiopia quickly fades from view as soon as you leave Addis for the countryside.

Thousands of Ethiopians are displaced now. Dessie Hospital and others in Amhara are overwhelmed with casualties. Most of the fighting equipment of the Ethiopian national defense force has been destroyed or taken by the Tigray Defense Force. Supply lines to both Tigray and Amhara as well as from Djibouti and Kenya are cut off. It may be just hours to days before the Bole Airport is closed. As of now no Ethiopian airline  flight is flying domestically. Civilian traffic between major cities is severely restricted. The isolated and tormented people of Western Tigray will soon be freed.

A prayer from His Eminence Archbishop Abba Kewestos Ethiopian Orthodox Patriarchate:

In the name of the Father and of the Son
And of the Holy Spirit one God, Amen.

For he that will love life, and see good days, let him refrain his tongue from evil, and his lips that they speak no guile:

Let him eschew evil, and do good; let him seek peace, and ensue it.
For the eyes of the Lord are over the righteous, and his ears are open unto their prayers: but the face of the Lord is against them that do evil.

And who is he that will harm you if you will be followers of that which is good?

But if ye suffer for righteousness’ sake, happy are ye: and be not afraid of their terror, neither be troubled;

But sanctify the Lord God in your hearts: and be ready always to an answer to every man that asketh you a reason of the hope that is in you, with meakness and fear;

Amen.

What I learned and hope to return to at Mekelle University Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital

Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital campus of Mekelle University

In building neuroscience and neurosurgery at Mekelle University I experienced great happiness in serving the people and training future neurosurgeons and scientists.  My seven year experience at Mekelle University serving the people of Tigray and surrounding areas as well teaching neurosurgeons and neuroscience gave me a new perspective on what is true career success. I now recognize there are three phases.

When I first came to Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in 2015 my initial goal was get a good neurosurgery service going. They were really the only government hospital capable of developing this goal outside Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, as well as being some distance north so it would offer chances to treat patients who would otherwise go untreated. The University and hospital were committed to building not only quality and quantity of good health care for Tigray and surrounding regions but also to medical education. 

Initially I helped teach neuroscience and clinical neurology/neurosurgery to medical students and general surgery residents (young physicians who have graduated from medical school now doing specialty training) basic neurosurgical skills involving mostly traumatic injuries. My goal was to create a neurosurgery training program as well as a neuroscience research team. 

Teaching medical students about head injury

After about a year working with Ethiopian Ministries and some good collaboration from the Ethiopian ministries, World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies, and Mekelle University faculty we started a five year training program and a three year fellowship program. Up until the Tigray Ethiopian conflict we had grown to 18 trainees, doing 1,500 operations  year, and published internationally recognized research with our multidisciplinary research team on neural tube defects which occur in a high incidence in Ethiopia.

Our research team meet with the World Health Organization

Going through this experience made me reflect on what has been important in my career. When I was a college student at Texas A&M, then a medical student at Harvard, and finally a resident at the University of Miami I was mostly focused on personal achievement and perhaps also personal recognition. Through out that experience and subsequent practice I saw my career as having two phases. Learning to be a neurosurgeon and then becoming a great neurosurgeon. However it was my experience at Mekelle University and Ayder Comprehensive Hospital that taught me there was still a greater accomplishment which was to train great neurosurgeons and neuroscientists. 

Senior neurosurgery resident is supervised to remove a brain tumor

At first it was struggle. The hospital had little experience with neurosurgery. As a 60+ year old guy I was in the hospital every night doing surgery with young general surgeons and then residents with whom we had to start from scratch. Still they were eager to learn. With help from Indian and the few Ethiopian neurosurgeons we got up to date textbooks for them to read. Even though English was their second language they became proficient. At the end of the first year they knew more than I did at their level some 40 years ago. 

During surgery they have to learn about anesthesia, positioning, hand control, to make movements less than millimeter which could mean life or death, how to control bleeding, how to do a 12 hour operation, and much more. We began to have weekly seminars on very complicated ideas where they absorbed the concepts so well I was learning as much they were.  We were organized as most neurosurgical services in a sort of military style hierarchy to which the residents responded to well. Very quickly good and close relationships developed not only with those that were Tigray but also with others from other Ethiopian regions and other countries in the program.

I formed strong relationships with the research bodies of Mekelle University and we created a strong multi-disciplinary research team on neural tube defects which lead to meeting with government and World Health Organization officials, international NGOs, and a finally the beginning of a nationwide plan for prevention and treatment.

Before the  Ethiopian occupation and blockade shut the neurosurgery training program down we had operated on more than 5,000 patients from not only  Tigray but also Amhara,  Eritrea, and occasionally Addis Ababa to Gambella. This week far away from Mekelle I had been doing the “paper work” for my first graduates. I wish we could have had a formal ceremony but I had good voice communication provided. Now I have learned that the best phase of a neurosurgeon’s career is seeing his trainees carry on and expand what I started. 

Holiday dinner with my neurosurgery residents and fellow

I pray God will see fit to facilitate Ayder Comprehensive Hospital and myself to return  to its service, teaching, and research missions once again.

United Nations inability to stop genocide gives Tigray no option but to fight to the end

The failure of definitive action of the United Nations to decisively act against genocide since World War II predicts the victims of Ethiopian genocide on Tigray can expect no real help.  As a result of the genocidal actions of the Ethiopian government under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed towards the Tigray beginning on November 4th, 2020 it is possible that 750,000 people will die, thousands have suffered rape and other humans rights atrocities, and a population of more than 6 million people have been deprived of food security, personal safety, shelter, education, health care, transportation, and all means of communication for 9 months.

Unfortunately this catastrophe is just the latest of many genocides that have occurred in which the United Nations having recognized the crisis and its potential for horrific damage to human life yet accomplished nothing to stop or prevent it.

Critiques of the United Nations (UN)  have noted that it has a history of acting  “as a slow, reactionary bureaucracy, failed to effectively combat the genocides”. The UN is guided by the principle that military action is always to be avoided and that prolonged negotiation is the only answer. Unfortunately what this means is that usually the aggressor will get to maintain whatever territory or enslaved population already captured and often the oppressed have little chance for return to the previous status quo. This type of response is recognized by aggressors who know they have weeks to months to quickly do whatever immoral and egregious action they wish to take before the UN will even begin to discuss it. Knowing this the government of Ethiopia has taken a strong stand that it will not negotiate with the Tigray believing it faces no real threat of significant sanctions from the international community. For the Tigray it means they have no other course of fighting to overturn the government of Ethiopia.

Even when UN peacekeepers have been deployed they have failed to protect civilians when confronted by threat of attack by aggressors as they are directed basically to never engage as was seen in Bosnia in the 1990s. Former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon acknowledged, for example, that UN troops were pulled out of Rwanda “when they were most needed” and further acknowledged that the innocent at Srebrenica were “abandoned to slaughter” in 1995.

Genocide was recognized officially in 1946 in response to the genocide of 6 million Jews by the German Nazi regime. Polish lawyer, Raphael Lemkin, in his 1944 book Axis Rule in Occupied Europe which lead to the UN Resolution 96(1), 11 December 1946 formally recognizing it. The definition of a genocide was created in this resolution:

“Genocide is a denial of the right of existence of entire human groups, as homicide is the denial of the right to live of individual human beings; such denial of the right of existence shocks the conscience of mankind, results in great losses to humanity in the form of cultural and other contributions represented by these human groups, and is contrary to moral law and the spirit and aims of the United Nations. Many instances of such crimes of genocide have occurred when racial, religious, political and other groups have been destroyed, entirely or in part.”

Yet only three genocides have been officially recognized by the UN  Rwanda in 1994, Bosnia (and the 1995 Srebrenica massacre), and Cambodia under the 1975-79 Pol Pot regime.

Human nature is that we will take action to protect another based upon what their relation is to us. Evolutionary biologists talk about actions which preserve those closest to the same gene pool. Although the religions of the Abrahamic covenant (Christianity, Islam, Judaism) preach universal brotherhood mans ability to selfishly not see that the needs of others beyond his immediate circle of family and local community makes us reluctant to get involved. In Christianity this concept noted by Saint Paul was felt to be the greatest impediment to becoming a true Christian.

 

Abiy Ahmed and his Prophet believe God is telling him all sin is allowable to achieve his destiny

An intercepted phone call between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and a woman evangelical Christian commonly referred to as Prophet Birtukan where he is basically dictated to by her about what his policy should be to Tigray is creating much controversy.

In the recording Abiy just gives slight affirmation and listen for several minutes as the “Prophet” tells him he should show no mercy to Tigray, be strong and unyielding, trust no one including his own wife, and remember that others who he trusted before have betrayed him. He has been chosen by God to  defeat the Tigray and make Ethiopia great.

There have been many back channel reports that some of Abiy Ahmed’s advisors and military generals have suggested he open up negotiations but he has always refused. It now becomes evident that the rumors of him believing he has some twisted Christian manifest destiny to crush opposition in his quest for territory and power allows any evil deed necessary even if violates accepted Christian morality.

How dangerous is Abiy Ahmed when he realizes his loss of power?

Dictators like Abiy Ahmed become most dangerous to their own people when they realize they are going to lose power. There is a saying among hunters that a wounded animal becomes dangerous in its last moments.

Abiy Ahmed has transformed from democratic reformer to a dictator reminiscent of Mengistu Hale Mariam, former ruler of the Derg Regime deposed by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front

There have been numerous academic studies by political and social scientists on the mechanisms used by dictators to gain power and how it often backfires. If you compare their findings with the recent history of Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia,  you see he must have read the textbook on how to be a dictator.

Abiy Ahmed has created strawmen as threats to his supporters well-being namely the TPLF and the foreign influences. Feigning that following his cause is the righteous one, the one true path to Ethiopian autonomy and greatness. That Western democracies intent is to see Ethiopia broken into pieces as a nation while Abiy promises a mighty state rivaling the global superpowers. This call for action against a falsehood facilitated his drawing together a coalition into the Prosperity Party as a test of loyalty.

For dictators to come to power they need kingmakers. They do not have to be a majority of the ruled population but kingmakers have to be activists and committed. By supporting the dictator they will gain influence but at the same time the dictator must mistrust them and find means to control them. They have to remind the kingmakers that they can easily at the dictators wish be removed from the inner circle.

There are different theories about how dictators use power. The “romantic theory” says if dictators obtain absolute power they are just free to do whatever is necessary. Another more pragmatic view is that the key to their power is controlling those who control necessary functions or resources such as the military, press, etc.

In true democracies civilian interest groups can organize through voting to replace leaders. However in a dictatorship one of the problems for dictators is that the very people they put in position to control functions or resources can turn against them. The majority of dictators who are overturned are not replaced by elections but by coups of the power groups they helped create. Although some dictatorships last decades the average dictatorship in modern times has been 3 1/2 years.

It is interesting that Abiy Ahmed has now reached that time where most dictators are dethroned. Although for there are still many buying into his straw men delusions the reality of the weakness that has come to the Ethiopian state rather then the strength he proclaims is beginning to be undeniable. He now finds himself daily reversing his previous declarations such as the Ethiopian and allied forces completely vanquished the Tigray leadership and military to just “flour in the wind“, that Mekelle was just a poor village not capable of any significant military threat, that record prosperity for all Ethiopians was just around the corner, that freedom of the press would become law not a memory, and that political opposition would be given a “seat at the table” not a cell in the jail. Instead he has reigned on all these promises. Like previous dictators now he is in a delusional state wantonly punishing those who are “not with him in supporting the state” encouraging starvation, genocide, even killing of his own armed forces for withdrawing from battle. I pray to God that the many Tigrayans, Oromians, and others in custody through out Ethiopia are not killed out of a crazy man’s spite.

Famine, Inflation, loss of regional autonomy expanding armed opposition to Ethiopian central authority

Nationwide food shortage, inflation, and lack of regional autonomy in all of Ethiopia are driving a new coalition from many regions to act against the rule of Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party. Although the Tigray conflict gets the most attention armed resistance is now active in Oromia, Amhara, Afar, Somali, and Gambella regions of Ethiopia. These other actions are clearly becoming more aggressive given the recent advances of the Tigray Defense Force.

Food security forecast for Tigray and Ethiopia by the World Food Program

Since 2018 the government of Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party has focused on city improvement in Addis Ababa to make it a “true capital city of Africa” Meanwhile food production and agricultural improvement projects throughout Ethiopia have been put on a low priority. Many local government leaders were pushed aside or forced to join the Prosperity Party which obligated them to this Addis Ababa first policy and abandoning local concerns.

The World Food Program forecast for food security extending to January 2022 of Ethiopia sees famine to crisis level conditions continuing in not only Tigray but also the whole south regions of Ethiopia. Somali region will have below levels of food supply. The worst area remains southeastern Tigray.

Recurring drought over the past decade without real attention to improving overall production has added to the need for necessary food imports to have remained at least 15% and may grow. Higher prices for seeds and agricultural materials like fertilizer along with inflation (now at 45% this year -the birr trading near 50 per US dollar) means it will harder for farmers to be ready to plant their crops or at least do so in lesser volume. Lesser rains limit the amount of pasture grazing available to raise livestock such as goats, sheep, and beef. Sheep are the most demanding and its availability is now sharply curtailed.

Rainfall patterns of Ethiopia compared to normal (From WFP)

Ethiopia has major growing season and minor growing season extremely dependent on rain patterns. Belg is the shorter season from February to April, and meher is the main season from May to September (they have different names in different regions). These patterns have become increasingly unpredictable.  Total annual grain production (including mainly corn, wheat, sorghum, barley, and teff) greatly depends on rainfall patterns during the belg season.

Deteriorating Sudanese Ethiopian relations has implications for the Tigray Ethiopian conflict

The rapidly cooling relations between Sudan and Ethiopia has implications to the Tigray Ethiopia conflict. There have been growing tensions between the Ethiopian government of Abiy Ahmed and Sudan for several reasons. Tigray leadership has discussed the need to open a western land route for supply which means through Sudan. Could Sudanese Tigray relations be warming up? Logic would suggest Sudan will move to at least neutral if not passively supportive of the Tigray cause.

Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is seeing his relationship with Abiy Ahmed deteriorate

Sudan Prime Minister recalls ambassador to Ethiopia
The recall of the Sudanese ambassador from Addis Ababa occurred after an internationally supported plan for Sudan to mediate negotiations between the Tigray National State and Ethiopia was flatly rejected. The Ethiopian spokesperson added to their usual statement that they do talk to “terrorists” that they have “trust” issues with Sudan. This was a diplomatic slap in the face to Sudan.

Territorial Dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan
There is a very productive agricultural area the Sudanese call al-Fashaga and the Ethiopian’s call Mazega. Previously the TPLF leader Meles Zenawi had worked out a joint sharing agreement for its use. When Abiy Ahmed came to power the influence of the Amhara elites who claimed this area as theirs become vocal that it belongs to Amhara.

There are frequent skirmishes between Sudan and Ethiopian forces along the disputed farmland with Ethiopia currently holding a captured Sudanese officer. Skirmishes including military movements and exchange of fire have happened when Eritrean and Ethiopian National Defense Force invaded Sudanese territory to capture escaping refugees or search for elements of the Tigray Defense Force.

Dispute over Grand Renaissance Dam
Recently Sudan signed a joint defense treaty with Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Both parties feel that Ethiopia is not cooperating with their rights to the Nile flow. They have wanted the dam to be slowly filled over many years rather than rushed filling the Ethiopian government has done. I have had discussions with some quite familiar with current Egyptian policy makers who tell me that Egyptian Sudanese cooperation of the GERD plan of action have decided to avoid aggressive action because they expect that if there is a Tigray takeover negotiation will be easier to reach a compromise.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Damn is causing tension between downstream nations of Sudan and Egypt

Dispute over Refugees from Ethiopia
Tens of thousands of refugees have fled from Tigray and recently more from Amhara, the  Qemant in numbers of at least 3000, because of the Amhara aggression to non-Amhara. Sudan is complaining to the UN that they do not have the resources to care for them. Local Sudanese authorities have exhibited shock at the growing number of bodies of tortured Tigrayans found floating in the Tekeze river bordering Sudan and Western Tigray currently occupied by Eritrea and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.

Tens of thousands of refugees from Tigray and now Amhara are in Sudan

Sudan is hosting opposition to Eritrea
The Sudanese are also hosting the organization of a shadow opposition government against Abiy Ahmed ally, Eritrea, and may be allowing organization of opposition military forces. This is occurring even though the ruler of Eritrea,  Isaias Afwerki, visited Sudan just a few months ago where they reportedly agree to more mutual cooperation.  So one must assume the relationship has taken a turn for the worst.

Estimate of total civilian deaths of the Tigray in the conflict with Ethiopia

Civilians of Mahibere Dego, in a mountainous area of central Tigray were reportedly massacred following this photo

Total deaths of the civilian Tigrayan population from genocide, starvation, and absence of health care could easily approach 750,000 in the next few months.  Now almost 10 months since the conflict began Tigray remains blocked from trade, food aid, medical supplies, power, communication, fuel, in other words just about every thing. International aid agencies including the United Nations have done preliminary investigations with findings that at least 100 trucks of food aid is necessary everyday to avert fatal starvation. They found there is no real working medical facility or supply in Ethiopia. Ongoing killing is still present in Western Tigray by the Eritrean, Amhara militia, and Ethiopian Defense Forces.

Lack of Health Care Will Increase the Crude Death Rate in Tigray
The crude death rate for Ethiopia defined as the percentage of deaths in a population was first estimated in 1950 at about 32 deaths per 1000 population. By 1971 with the beginning of building of medical schools and development of a health system it was reduced to 21.11. Years later in 2020 with major teaching hospitals in every region, rural health care, and a stronger national health system the crude death rate had been dramatically reduced to 6.29 per 1000 population. Unfortunately it is perfectly logical to assume that if you take away all health care and medical supplies in Tigray the crude death rate just from the absence of health care will soar to 32 deaths per 1000 per year. For the 7, 070,260 population of Tigray measured in the last census that means this lack of health care will bring about 226,248.32 deaths annually in Tigray.

Ethnic genocidal killings by military and militia groups in Tigray
International human rights groups have done some preliminary investigation and estimate that so far 1,900 people have been killed. There is continuing violence in Western Tigray which remains occupied by Eritrea, Amhara militia, and Ethiopian national defense forces where floating bodies have been discovered at about a 40 in the Tekeze river flowing from the occupied city of Humera. The Ethiopian military plans to execute 17,500 Tigrayan soldiers who were detained at the onset of the conflict. From battle field reports it appears Ethiopian federal forces did not take prisoners of combatants only of civilians “collaborators” such that is possible that perhaps 10,000 Tigray Defense Forces have been killed.

Death From Starvation in Tigray
The United Nations relief agencies and other groups have determined that 100,000 children and over 250,000 adults are at critical stages of risk of death from starvation. The routes of delivering the necessary 100 trucks a day to help relief this emergency pass through active battlefield. Many in the Amhara political structure are espousing the view that no aid should be given to Tigray unless they unilaterally give up the fight now. 

 

Jawar Mohammed predicted Abiy Ahmed would bring civil war and state collapse

Jawar Mohammed predicted in October 2020 that Abiy Ahmed would build a personal authoritarian rule that polarized Ethiopian society leading to civil war that collapsed the state.

Jawar Mohammed accompanies new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on his USA tour in July 2018(photo from Ethiopian MFA twitter)

In late October 2020 Jawar Mohammed an Abiy Ahmed ally who was key to Ahmed coming to power wrote a prophetic prediction of a disaster the leadership of Abiy Ahmed could bring to Ethiopia. His work was published in the Addis Standard, the leading newspaper of Addis Ababa on October 28, 2020 but had been written some time before. Jawar Mohammed was in prison awaiting trial for terrorism and remains there still. A review of his predictions is chillingly accurate to the chaos and loss of life that has come to pass. Note that the members of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front expressed similar views having known Ahmed well during his time in the security services.

From 2014 through 2016 growing protests occurred in the Oromo Regional State of Ethiopia which constitutes in excess of 30% of the total 110 million Ethiopians. An Oromian, Jawar Mohammed  ran a media company based in the United States emerged as a leader of the new movement. He lead a nonviolent but very massive uprising called the Qeerroo (young unemployed unmarried men) movement which spread to all of Oromia, Addis Ababa, and inspired similar actions in other regions.

As they gained momentum the leaders including Jawar Mohammed felt they had three options in changing from an authoritarian state under the coalition organized by the late TPLF leader Meles Zenawi. They felt an overt overthrow was too dangerous and a prolonged negotiated transplacement was too complicated and lengthy. Instead they decided a transformation through a transitional leader was the best way to join moderates throughout Ethiopia together.

Working with Lemma Megersa, the leader of the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization, a “soft coup” was done. In the course of this process Lemma suggested that his protégé , Abiy Ahmed be the new leader. However, Jawar Mohammed had his doubts because of Ahmed’s inexperience with politics and administration. He felt Abiy Ahmed demonstrated a simplistic view and extreme personal ambition which was concerning..

Despite his concerns Jawar Mohammed became an ally of Abiy Ahmed who initially welcomed the return of Oromia opposition groups with open arms. He felt could play three roles to Ahmed including advisor, providing constructive criticism, and working for stability. However soon a downward spiral began. As soon as he assumed power, Ahmed began to remove other reformers who had helped him. Suddenly they became terrorists. Jawar Mohammed sees the disunity of the reform movement as being complicit in allowing Abiy Ahmed to rapidly change from reformer to autocrat.