ethiopian national defense force Archives

Abiy Ahmed and Prosperity Party revoked all their promises of hope and unity for Ethiopia

The growing paradox between what Abiy Ahmed promised and what reality has emerged under his leadership

The glow of hope was replaced by the tarnish of despair in just three years after Abiy Ahmed came to power in April 2018 as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. The world watched initially with awe as the new leader freed political prisoners, took up the plight of Oromo interests being ignored in the growth of Addis Ababa, promised democratic elections, and a dialogue with all of Ethiopia’s varied and many ethnic groups. But this new wave of democracy would not last.

A major part of his rise in political popularity was the civil actions of the Qeerro demonstrators and support of Oromo activists including Jawar Mohammed who accompanied the new Prime Minister on his tour meeting diaspora in the United States. Today Jawar Mohammed and others sit in jail without a real due process. The Oromo whose cause was once championed by the Prime Minister suffer extrajudicial killings without restriction.

Early in his new role, Abiy Ahmed complimented the Tigray as an example of a good regional government in discussing with the Ethiopian parliament what should be expected of elected officials.

Now Ethiopia is involved in a civil war with an ever growing number of participants from almost all regions of Ethiopia joining the Tigray and Oromo fighters who clearly see that the Prime Minister has violated his supreme duty to follow the Ethiopian constitution and act in the best interests of Ethiopia.

The Tigray regional state had only 9000 armed forces in its service in November 2020 not the 250,000 claimed. Build ups in Eritrea and Amhara as well as severe cutting of budgets normally allotted by population and most importantly the characterization of the Tigray leadership as “terrorists” even after they had left power peacefully created an intolerable environment. It is literally a miracle that they were able to survive the initial onslaught of the combined forces of Ethiopia and Tigray estimated to be over 150,000. No doubt that a part of this revival was due to the will to overcome the intentional and massive genocide being acted upon the innocent Tigray population.

As someone who has lived and worked in Tigray for the past 7 years until I was forced to evacuate I have spent time in many regions talking to farmers, city dwellers, and thousands of patients and their families. The representation that the Tigray were subjugated to an unpopular despotic regional government is nonsense. What ever differences existed have been dismissed as the vast majority of Tigrayans, the Tegaru, are united in the purpose of avoiding an intended complete genocide. No doubt this is why Abiy Ahmed and his followers have such a fear of children, the elderly, and mothers of the Tigray that they want to arrest all of them immediately.

Today, Ethiopia is a failed state due to the chameleon nature of the Prime Minister and his followers which have now revoked all their promises. Many of his former supporters are now in prison. There is no free speech, no free press, no growing economy, and now Ethiopia is becoming identified most closely with outlaw nations like North Korea, Iran, and yes especially Eritrea. Ethiopia has allied itself with the enemies of all the values it once promised to hold most dear.

Abiy Ahmed’s Recent Action reminds of Hitler’s “Nero” Decree

A child was one of several civilians killed and injured by the Ethiopian airstrike on a market in Mekelle claimed to be the main communication center by the ENDF

Reminiscent of Hitler’s actions in the face of defeat in World War II Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has done his own “Nero” Decree. Devastating loss of soldiers and equipment in the past week to Tigray Defense Forces have only hardened the Ethiopian Prime Minister to escalate further his grotesque acts of war crime and inhumanity. Many military analysts are saying setbacks of the Ethiopian National Defense Force may have reached a point of no return.

Ethiopian jet aircraft attacked a busy market in downtown Mekelle calling it the center of Tigray Defense Force communications near a well known hotel, Planet Hotel. Ayder Hospital reports there were 3 causalities. This is the latest action whereas earlier in the week the jets repeatedly area bombarded areas along the A2 highway in Amhara killing at least hundreds of Amhara and Afar civilians, his own Amhara forces, and destroying many businesses with little effect on the Tigray Defense Forces. Throughout the past 11 months under his command hundreds of thousands of innocents have been summarily executed, starved, raped, striped of health care, possessions, and communication.

In March of 1945 when Allied Forces crossed the Rhine and Russian forces were moving in fast from the West, Adolf Hitler made his infamous “Nero” Decree. He admitted to a few of his generals that defeat was imminent. He called for the destruction of Germany’s infrastructure and stepped up arrests of Jews and other undesirables as well as their executions. The similarity of using genocide and deprivation of Abiy to Hitler seems to become closer and closer with each passing day. One wonders if Abiy Ahmed has read Mein Kampf.

In public remarks Abiy Ahmed rambled between talking about avocados and that every Amhara citizen should stand by his house and fight to the death. While at the same giving frantic calls to the United States State Department to help him even though he does not want to negotiate with “Terrorists”. Meanwhile his supporters continue their chants “Hands off Ethiopia!” meaning they want no interference from the United States while complaining they want more food aid to Amhara even as they block it to Tigray.

The Ethiopian response to the Tigray insurgency is not a winning strategy

The Tigray insurgency plan has a considerable chance for success when compared with many previous historical fights. Insurgency against an established governmental institution have happened since prehistoric times. Scholars in schools of war and government policy have studied these occurrences to see if there are factors which can reliably predict who will prevail? Certain patterns emerge from these studies.

Map of the studied 59 cases of insurgency in the world

Of the past 59 cases of insurgency across the globe those occurring in Africa more than the other regions have tended to favor the insurgent force.

When we apply this type of analysis to the Ethiopia Tigray conflict we find there are some important factors which favor Tigray and go against Ethiopia prevailing with a successful counter insurgency plan.

Allowing the Tigray to switch from a guerrilla type of warfare to conventional warfare. The resurgence of Tigray from being trapped in mountains with only rifles to functioning as an army was an important step towards potential victory.
The large component of experienced professional fighters in the Tigray Defense Force. Upwards of 75% of the experienced officers and all important noncommissioned officers of the pre-existing Ethiopian Army are now fighting with Tigray Defense Force. Many of the leadership of the current Ethiopian National Defense Force were defeated by the the same Tigray leadership in the Derg war.
Ethiopia applying an “iron fist” of repression ethnic punishment. Case after case has shown that ethnic cleansing and repression builds support for the insurgency. A resilient fighting force with determination and high morale is created.
Ethiopian failure to include motives for negotiation and wither Tigray support. Offers to negotiate a peace take the power away from insurgents and tend to favor the government. Abiy Ahmed’s refusal to negotiate goes against conventional wisdom in dealing with insurgency.
Ethiopian reliance on a foreign nation to successfully fights it battles. The requirement of Eritrean support ex parte portrays weakness on the part of Ethiopia and emboldens the Tigray insurgency.
Ethiopia inability to counter diaspora support. World wide support by Tigray diaspora has resulted in condemnation of Ethiopian practices on the Tigray people including starvation, abuse, ethnic cleansing, and discrimination against noncombatants.
Most insurgencies average a 6 year duration yet Ethiopia cannot economically sustain its current military spending more than a few months. Ethiopia has already spent $ 2 billion in one year equal to its whole annual budget. It had only $480 million left to last the rest of year but spent another $51 million on weapons from Turkey. Inflation and the falling birr which may drop to 100 birr to the dollar predicts risk of state failure.

Deteriorating Sudanese Ethiopian relations has implications for the Tigray Ethiopian conflict

The rapidly cooling relations between Sudan and Ethiopia has implications to the Tigray Ethiopia conflict. There have been growing tensions between the Ethiopian government of Abiy Ahmed and Sudan for several reasons. Tigray leadership has discussed the need to open a western land route for supply which means through Sudan. Could Sudanese Tigray relations be warming up? Logic would suggest Sudan will move to at least neutral if not passively supportive of the Tigray cause.

Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is seeing his relationship with Abiy Ahmed deteriorate

Sudan Prime Minister recalls ambassador to Ethiopia
The recall of the Sudanese ambassador from Addis Ababa occurred after an internationally supported plan for Sudan to mediate negotiations between the Tigray National State and Ethiopia was flatly rejected. The Ethiopian spokesperson added to their usual statement that they do talk to “terrorists” that they have “trust” issues with Sudan. This was a diplomatic slap in the face to Sudan.

Territorial Dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan
There is a very productive agricultural area the Sudanese call al-Fashaga and the Ethiopian’s call Mazega. Previously the TPLF leader Meles Zenawi had worked out a joint sharing agreement for its use. When Abiy Ahmed came to power the influence of the Amhara elites who claimed this area as theirs become vocal that it belongs to Amhara.

There are frequent skirmishes between Sudan and Ethiopian forces along the disputed farmland with Ethiopia currently holding a captured Sudanese officer. Skirmishes including military movements and exchange of fire have happened when Eritrean and Ethiopian National Defense Force invaded Sudanese territory to capture escaping refugees or search for elements of the Tigray Defense Force.

Dispute over Grand Renaissance Dam
Recently Sudan signed a joint defense treaty with Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Both parties feel that Ethiopia is not cooperating with their rights to the Nile flow. They have wanted the dam to be slowly filled over many years rather than rushed filling the Ethiopian government has done. I have had discussions with some quite familiar with current Egyptian policy makers who tell me that Egyptian Sudanese cooperation of the GERD plan of action have decided to avoid aggressive action because they expect that if there is a Tigray takeover negotiation will be easier to reach a compromise.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Damn is causing tension between downstream nations of Sudan and Egypt

Dispute over Refugees from Ethiopia
Tens of thousands of refugees have fled from Tigray and recently more from Amhara, the Qemant in numbers of at least 3000, because of the Amhara aggression to non-Amhara. Sudan is complaining to the UN that they do not have the resources to care for them. Local Sudanese authorities have exhibited shock at the growing number of bodies of tortured Tigrayans found floating in the Tekeze river bordering Sudan and Western Tigray currently occupied by Eritrea and the Ethiopian National Defense Force.

Tens of thousands of refugees from Tigray and now Amhara are in Sudan

Sudan is hosting opposition to Eritrea
The Sudanese are also hosting the organization of a shadow opposition government against Abiy Ahmed ally, Eritrea, and may be allowing organization of opposition military forces. This is occurring even though the ruler of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, visited Sudan just a few months ago where they reportedly agree to more mutual cooperation. So one must assume the relationship has taken a turn for the worst.

Growing dissension between Ethiopian National Defense Forces and Amhara militia for defense of Northern Amhara

Growing dissension between Ethiopian National Defense Forces and Amhara militia of the defense of Northern Amhara. The FANO militia group is attacking ENDF soldiers and even civilians for retreating from Tigray Defense Force movements to capture Amhara cities.

As of today August 5, 2021 the cities of Lalibela and Woldiya have been captured by the Tigray Defense Force. We know from multiple sources that several occurrences have happened this week to indicate a weakening of the resolve of the Ethiopian National Defense Force in the face of a string of defeats as well as increasing friction with the Amhara militia.

The FANO Amhara militia group blocking the ENDF from withdrawing from Woldiya in anticipation of TDF capturing the city

When the regular ENDF forces tried to withdrawal from W0ldiya their movement out of the city was opposed by the Amhara militia group, FANO, who actually shot the Oromia commander and blockaded the street with large objects including trees. Anonymous sources have also revealed that the commanders of Lalibela had expressed their displeasure of the tenure of the war because the tactics used in Tigray had inflamed such a passion in the TDF forces attacking them. Similar to W0ldya we are hearing reports that there were sometimes violent clashes between FANO and the regular ENDF before the TDF captured the city today. It was reported that FANO robbed and killed civilians as they left the city to avoid fighting TDF. Then a few hours later placed Woldiya under an artillery bombardment that have injured and killed civilians.

Multiple civilian victims suffered when FANO left Woldiya before the TDF capture. Civilians were shot and then the next day an artillery barrage injured and killed more from the FANO directed forces.

On August 4, 2021 a group of Tigray civilians trying to make back to Tigray from near Woldiya were killed by attack of their bus from Fano directed forces

The President of the Amhara, Agegnehu Teshager, region has consistently for the past two weeks complained to the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that he is not receiving enough support from Addis Ababa in terms of reinforcement. Now he is called for all adults to join the fight in the face of the TDF advances.

President of Amhara region Agegnehu Teshager calls for complete mobilization of adults to defend Amhara just a week after denying TDF had successfully invaded the Amhara region

As the TDF advances northwest into Amhara it has now come to light that official communication released today from the Amhara Prosperity Party have become even more genocidal and bizarre. They are spinning that the ENDF and Amhara militia are doing a strategic withdrawal to lead TDF into the mountains of Northern Amhara where a “trap” will be sprung. Great sacrifice of the Amhara will be necessary they say to defeat the TDF however for the TDF they say “Our farmer is determined to fight the herd, to strip the barn, to rape his wife, to kidnap his son, to kill the young”

Tigray Defense Force using weather to win

There is heavy rainfall in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia during the summer months from the book, Nile River Basin :Ecohydrological Challenges, Climate Change and Hydropolitics Chapter: 6 Publisher: Springer Science Publisher

The rapid movement of the Tigray Defense force in recapturing Tigray and moving into the Amhara region is due to their successful understanding of fighting in the mountains during the rainy season. The Tigray-Ethiopian conflict is centered in Northern Ethiopia which for the most part is a very mountainous regions. From June through September especially in the mountains is the rainy season called Kiremt . It has been known for centuries that weather must play a role in how a war is fought if it is to be won. In 1917 the Harvard Climatologist, Robert Ward, wrote about the effect of weather on World War I being fought in Europe. He said “ war does not make the weather but weather does make the war”

The soldier must have weather protection, be able to move to contact the enemy efficiently , and have functional armament. He must be disciplined and trained to make difficult maneuvers. The added stress of fighting the elements as well as the enemy requires that the will to fight is present. The surrender of enemy forces now numbering over 30,000 to the Tigray Defense Force demonstrates this factor is with the Tigray Defense Force. The video attached shows the TDF marching on foot through a city near Lalibela in the cold rain. Many of the fighters do not have uniforms but they have multiple layers of clothing and rain gear which often the ENDF does not have.

The current rapid movement of the Tigray Defense Forces through the northern Amhara region is an example of military tactics made with weather in mind. Soldiers must be trained and equipped in a way that they can move through mountainous and often slippery terrain efficiently. During much of the year in Northern Ethiopia valleys and low points are dry but during the rainy season can be transformed to rivers. There are few good highways so often corridors of travel may be little more than a dirt path which can become so muddy that it becomes to difficult to even move in it.

Tigray Defense Forces crossing a seasonal wash in the mountains of the Amhara region

The frequent rain and thunderstorms curtails the ability of the Ethiopian forces to move their troops by airplane or helicopter. It also makes it difficult to carry out airstrikes with any precision. The placement of artillery units becomes difficult because they get stuck in the mud or cannot be placed accurately. The Tigray Defense forces tend to move over mountain trails in unexpected directions making it difficult for the Ethiopian forces to pursue or track them in the weather.

Whilst the TDF moves on foot through mountains the ENDF prefers to use trucks on highways that are passable during the rainy season making it easy to guess where they will pass. They practice poor convoy management in their movement to contact which is why they are so often ambushed successfully by the TDF.

Tigrayans show mercy to genocidal Ethiopian and Eritrean invaders

In the face of terrible civilian atrocities done to the Tigray people by the invading Ethiopian National Defense Force, Amhara militias, Eritrean military, and Somali mercenaries there are increasing reports of mercy and kindness given to their attackers by Christians and Muslims.

The city and villages surrounding Hawzen have been the victim of attack first in 1988 at a market place where hundreds of civilians where massacred and again this Spring. The following is an eyewitness account (corrected for grammatically errors) of mercy in the face of horror:

“Last March near Hawzen there were joint offensive attacks against TDF by both Eritrean and Ethiopian forces with heavily mechanized army targeting civilians. The TDF waited them in a very strategic place to counterattack which caused the enemy to be dispersed. Some of the enemy soldiers were captured by farmers who had seen friends and family cut down by enemy fire while they was trying to hide themselves around their village. The farmers held them and the soldiers started to cry …one soldier said that they deserved even death punishment but he pleaded to the farmer to be taken and killed in front of the church in order to save his body from being consumed by vulture or hyena. But the farmers were with full of humanity and mercy, they gave food and taken to POW center with out any harm.”

Here is another account from a village near Mekelle”

“In wejerat ..it is just east of mekelle. One farmer is killed by Ethiopian soldier and immediately some the attacking soldiers captured and taken to to show to the victim’s family what the soldier had done. But the family of the victim told to TDF to not harm them …since they have a family like us ..we dont need a bad thing on them we need only a verdict from God”….

Tigray Defense Forces meet with representatives of a captured city in Amhara

In the attached picture TDF talks to gathered Amhara of a captured city to reassure them that their everyday life can continue under their local leaders.