US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described the violence in Ethiopia’s Tigray region as “ethnic cleansing“.
American citizens or legal resident aliens could be subject to fines up to $1 million or imprisonment up to 20 years for inciting, conspiracy, attempting or direct involvement with genocide. The first step to declaring a genocide in Tigray by Eritrean and Ethiopian governments has been taken by the declaration of “ethnic cleansing” by United States Secretary of State Tony Blinken this week. Additionally the US Embassy in Eritrea called once again for the complete withdrawal of Eritrea from Tigray. Numerous interviews with various US government officials has indicated that the US has been holding off on full designation pending further negotiations. However, so far no real progress has been made.
Ethiopia diaspora and others acting in substantial support of the state sponsored genocide in Tigray should understand the implications if an official genocide designation is given.
Section 1091 of Title 18, United States Code, prohibits genocide whether committed in time of peace or time of war. Genocide is defined in § 1091 and includes violent attacks with the specific intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. There is Federal jurisdiction if the offense is committed within the United States. There is also Federal extraterritorial jurisdiction when the offender is a national of the United States.
A soldier walks past girls looking on in the village of Dukouli within the Quraysha locality, located in the Fashaqa al-Sughra agricultural region of Sudan’s eastern Gedaref state on March 16, 2021. – (Photo by ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP) (Photo by ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP via Getty Images)Photo taken from Egyptian Al-Monitor which reported that Ethiopia falsely blamed Tigray forces for the attack on Sudanese forces now escalating into conflict between Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Sudanese forces.
This week I had a 2 hour discussion with a Tigray diaspora who grew up in Sudan during the Derg Regime with many connections still present there. This person just spent almost 2 months visiting Sudan especially the two main refugee camps holding more than 70,000 people mostly from Western Tigray. I will not identify this person because he/she still has relatives in the occupied region.
Some refugees are still coming in sometimes at 30 a day sometimes none. At first at the beginning of the war some where able to bring trucks or cars but now its only on foot. Over many years the Tigray have traded with the Sudanese and some older Tigrayans have stayed living in Eastern Sudan along the border. These Tigrayans who grew up in Sudan most if not all speak Arabic which is not too different then Tigrayan for many words.
This diaspora was friends with many prominent local Sudanese and one high ranking officer in the military who expressed concern for the welfare of the Tigrayans and a sense of kinship for a neighbor different then for Ethiopians in general right now. They are also upset about the failure to come to agreement on the use of the Nile with Ethiopia and feel that the Tigray have been mistreated.
Sudan is committed to military conflict to protect its sovereignty over al-Fashaga reports the Sudan Tribune
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Sudan was quoted in the Sudan Tribune saying “Al-Fashqa is fully a Sudanese territory!” Analysts have noted that the strong claim of Sudan territorial claim of al-Fashaga, rich farmland on the west Ethiopian Sudanese border, as well as continued lack of agreement on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is helping to coalesce political support and unity in Sudan. The Sudanese government intends to place more military support in the disputed area and will vigorously defend against any Ethiopian incursion. Meanwhile Abiy Ahmed Prime Minister of Ethiopia has stated on multiple occasions that al-Fashaga is Ethiopian territory leading to escalating military engagements since he took power in 2018.
Given recent events and the stances of the two countries there is a high likelihood more military conflict between them is coming. Sudan has a significant military force consisting of almost 100,00 manpower with almost that many again in reserve. Military hardware assets include 45 fighter jets, 38 attack aircraft, 43 attack helicopters, 830 tanks, 450 armored vehicles, and 10 self-propelled artillery. The weakened state of the Ethiopian military and its ongoing war with the Tigray Defense Force and Oromo Liberation Army have made Sudan’s military strength even more relevant. What outcome will this have on the Ethiopia Tigray conflict?
Sudan’s military reclaimed regained control of Shai Pet agricultural settlement in May 2021 a part of Al-Fashaga
While trying to induce sympathetic feelings of Pan-Africanism from other African countries, Abiy Ahmed lead Ethiopia continues to stumble badly when dealing with fellow African countries, Sudan and Egypt. Their relationship with the Ethiopian Prime Minister is deteriorating severely. If anything they may be increasingly inclined to help the Tigray.
Leading Egyptian news source, Al-monitor, today reports that Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty has stated that Egypt is increasingly finding the current Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam lack of agreement untenable. Despite numerous meetings with the African Union representatives, United Nations representatives, and leading world powers Abiy Ahmed has simply refused to talk further. There seems on the part of Egypt a growing call to act before the damn filling proceeds further. On the contrary, Tigray Presidential Advisor, Getachew Reda, held an internet video meeting with an Egyptian television network which warmly greeted and praised the Tigray.
In conversations with personal friends with connections in Egypt I am hearing that many in Egypt think there is a problem with the GERD. For the past two years Abiy Ahmed has promised electricity generation but it has not happened. Experts looking at the damn have informed Egyptian government officials that there is a fault in construction which will prevent it from reaching full capacity. This perceived fault and the potential for the Tigray to prevail in the current Ethiopia Tigray conflict have prevented military action by Egypt so far even though President Trump famously told Egypt to “bomb it”. Opinion polls in Egypt in 2020 carried out by Gallup polls show that 70% of Egyptians are concerned that GERD will affect their vital supply of water.
Earlier this year Sudan and Egypt signed a joint defense treaty and had war games in a show of force to Ethiopia. Sudan complains that uncontrolled water control has and will lead to further mixes of drought and flooding.
This year there has been growing incidents occurring on the Sudanese Ethiopian border known as al-Fashaga. Abiy Ahmed negated previous agreements for land sharing with Sudan leading to Sudan expelling Ethiopian farmers in December 2020. Ethiopia complains that Tigray Defense Forces have tried to enter from Sudan through this route. This week another clash happened with a disputed number of casualties suffered by Sudan when Amhara and Ethiopia as well as Eritrean forces entered al-Fashaga.
Even though there is current unrest in Sudan this damn dispute could act as a unifying factor for taking more action against Ethiopia. Many note that the relationship between Sudan and Ethiopian war partner, Eritrea, has been also damaged by Eritrea’s support of uprisings at the Port of Sudan. Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, has sponsored meetings and organization for opposition groups to Isaias Afwerki, leader of Eritrea, this past year. The defense pact with Egypt is a significant factor as well as some have theorized although not proven that Egypt is providing support to the Tigray military forces. Nizar Manek and Mohammed Kheir Omer noted authorities predicted in Foreign Policy that Sudan might ultimately align with the Tigray in November 2020 at the beginning of the conflict.
The latest estimate of the debt the Ethiopian government owes to foreign lenders shows it growing by more than $10 billion per year reaching $70 billion by the end of 2022. Since Abiy Ahmed took power it has more than doubled. It is important to also remember that Abiy Ahmed is spending about $50 million per airline flight of weapons from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates of which more than 15 flights have been documented which have not been officially financially documented.
Meanwhile medical supplies, COVID immunizations, food imports, fuel, and other foreign produced goods normally imported are being severely restricted due to the emphasis on war spending through out Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian economy which recorded 10% growth annually for the 10 years prior to Abiy Ahmed coming to power is now showing losses estimated to be negative 2% this year. Most economists agree that the debt to GDP (Gross domestic product) ratio should be less then 60%. Above 70% economic growth is hard to attain which Ethiopia has exceeded.
With the prolonged war in Northern Ethiopia which is unlikely to end soon, western democracy sanctions against Ethiopia, millions of displaced persons, locust swarms, abnormal rain patterns, and low COVID vaccination rates there is no doubt that there are now factors present to improve the economy it will only worsen. Abiy Ahmed’s government has been untruthful in trying to claim economic growth rates of 6% this year.
Ethiopia imports about $14 billion in goods while only exporting $ 3.4 billion. The United States stopping trade under violations of human rights clause in the African Growth and Opportunity treaty will result in up to $200 million in annual losses. Other European countries are also joining in sanctions.
While in good times before the war the average Ethiopian family made about $850 per year this amount has been significantly decreased by the rapidly declining value of the birr which is now 1 dollar=48 birr this week. A decrease approaching 50% devaluation over the past year. Now to repay the growing debt the Ethiopian government would have to tax the average family $648 per year to make the debt service leaving just $200 a year for living.
Lack of honesty in the economic situation as well as the above factors have resulted in government bonds of Ethiopia reaching junk status. Currently France and China are trying to work out a new repayment plan but Abiy Ahmed has failed to produce an acceptable austerity plan on which they can agree. Many analysts are questioning how Ethiopia in its current state can economically survive?
26th of November 2021 Professor Tassew Woldehanna, the President for the AAU, announces unprecedented actions against Ethnic Tigray degree holders
The announcement of Addis Ababa University that retroactive removal of academic degrees conferred on ethnic Tigrayans for not supporting the government of Abiy Ahmed may have severe repercussions not contemplated by the authors of this rash measure. Historically this type of action has been most associated with authoritarian regimes seeking to silence intellectual discourse which dissents from the despotic party line. When brought up in democracies on the other hand it has been rejected. International accrediting agencies for institutions of higher learning, funders of research, and potential universities offering advanced academic training for Ethiopians could place sanctions against this academic betrayal.
In the prelude to the World War II conflict Nazi Germany created a false Jewish strawman leading to the genocide of more than 6 million. In the midst of going from legalized discrimination to overt murder came the removal of all academic degrees from Jews in Germany and the occupied territories including Poland.
In the United States students at Harvard University last year brought up the possibility of removing degrees from supporters of Donald Trump as punishment for his policies with which they vehemently disagreed. Long discussions where held and ultimately these type of sanction was deemed inappropriate as an attack on freedom of speech.
The academic world of which I am a part is a world wide commitment to learning and teaching for the betterment of all mankind. Even between countries who are sometimes adversarial such as China and the United States cooperate and share scientific discourse as well as research. I myself have looked at Iranian medical publications on treatment of tuberculosis of the spine as helpful for what to do in Tigray even though I do not agree with many policies of the Iranian government. The academic achievement of someone is a separate issue then their political affiliation. The beauty of academics is that those of different views can find common ground on which to collaborate.
I fear that the international academic community might feel compelled perhaps justifiable so to sanction active faculty of Addis Ababa University for their betrayal of the academic norms of procedure. This could include barring participation in international meetings, research funding from international sources, decertification of Addis Ababa University from international accreditation, and sanctions on assets of university leaders.
The continued efforts to isolate Ethiopia from the international community being self imposed will only lead to further loss of many milestones previously attained in development and human dignity.
Protestors supporting Ethiopian government in Washington D.C. If they act without support or guidance from foreign governments they are acting within their right of free speech. However if receiving compensation and/or guidance that they are acting for a foreign government this is different.
Many Ethiopian diaspora becoming deeply involved as advocates for the Ethiopian governments genocidal actions should be aware of the differences between free speech and acting as a foreign agent. The United States government has already imposed sanctions on Ethiopia for violating human rights previously protected in legal treaties with the United States and other countries. In addition now the government of Ethiopia is making threats of physical violence against the United States to the extent of approaching becoming a hostile nation.
Recently at a Washington, D.C. rally in protest of the Tigray famine several Tigrayan women were slapped, punched, and knocked down allegedly by members of diaspora Ethiopian organization. This is currently under police investigation. If for example these assaults were carried out or supported under suggestion of the Ethiopian government this becomes an issue.
Similarly, there appears at least superficially to be communication between Ethiopian diaspora groups in the USA and Addis Ababa about which political candidates should be supported.
Ethiopian diaspora need to be aware that while serving in the Ethiopian or Eritrean military can ultimately lead to losing American citizenship it is also true that acting as an unregistered foreign agent for Ethiopia or Eritrea can lead to significant prison terms or fines.
The following information is taken from the official Department of Justice website
FARA is an acronym for the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938, as amended, 22 U.S.C. § 611 et seq. (“FARA” or “the Act”)FARA is an important tool to identify foreign influence in the United States and address threats to national security. The central purpose of FARA is to promote transparency with respect to foreign influence within the United States by ensuring that the United States government and the public know the source of certain information from foreign agents intended to influence American public opinion, policy, and laws, thereby facilitating informed evaluation of that information. FARA fosters transparency by requiring that persons who engage in specified activities within the United States on behalf of a foreign principal register with and disclose those activities to the Department of Justice. The Department of Justice is required to make such information publicly available.
WHAT IS AN “AGENT OF A FOREIGN PRINCIPAL”?
An “agent of a foreign principal” is any person who acts as an agent, representative, employee, or servant, or otherwise acts at the order, request, or under the direction or control of a “foreign principal” and does any of the following:
Engages within the United States in political activities, such as intending to influence any U.S. Government official or the American public regarding U.S. domestic or foreign policy or the political or public interests of a foreign government or foreign political party.
Acts within the United States as a public relations counsel, publicity agent, information service employee, or political consultant.
Solicits, collects, disburses, or dispenses contributions, loans, money, or other things of value within the United States.
Represents within the United States the interests of a foreign principal before U.S. Government officials or agencies.
Prior to Abiy Ahmed coming to power poverty had been declining in Ethiopia but now rural poverty is increasing even in areas far away from conflict according to the World Bank and other authorities
Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party war on Tigray is creating rapidly increasing severe rural poverty in Ethiopia not seen in many decades. In his quest to stay in power against the steady advance of Tigrayan and Oromo forces Ethiopia’s leader is rapidly reducing all other human needs to minimal levels instead just focusing on surviving. Ethiopia has gone from being an economic miracle to an economic disaster caused by the quest for power of the Prime Minister.
In the decade before Abiy Ahmed came to power as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia the extreme poverty rate of the Ethiopian population defined as living on less than $ 2 per day had decreased from over 39% to 19% overall. Now data from the World Bank Group shows that first due to COVID19 and subsequently the prolonged war which severely limited economic output and creation of employment the overall rate has reversed especially in rural populations rising to 41%.
Ethiopia has maxed out credit at over $40 billion requiring payments greater than $ 2 billion per annum just to pay the debt service not the principle. Severe cuts in human needs such as medications, medical consumables, infrastructure maintenance and improvement, and equipment imports just to run basic societal functions are increasing. The rapid decline of the birr which has been more than 30% over the past few month alone as well as growing international sanctions due to the Ethiopian governments human rights violations combined with ongoing war make any chance for economic recovery poor.
International air travel authorities are increasing the risk calculation for flights to Bole International Airport almost daily due to the approaching battlefront.
Ethiopian Airlines, one of the largest sources of foreign capital which bolsters the Ethiopian economy, has been severely affected by the prolonged Ethiopian Tigray war. Allegations of illegal war activity, approaching battlefront, decreased passenger traffic, and new initiatives by competitors are challenging the previous preeminence of the Ethiopian Airlines. Even before the war began in November 2020 what was Africa’s leading airline whose hub, Addis Ababa, had become the main African travel hub, was hurting due to the worldwide COVID 19 epidemic.
Now with many international agencies and governments evacuating the capital city of Ethiopia because of the proximity of the Tigray and Oromo forces many are wondering if an airport shutdown and closure of service is coming soon.
Numerous news sources have convincingly shown the airline to consistently carry munitions and troops in flights designated as regular civilian passenger flights which is against previously agreed upon international travel treaties including the Convention on Civil Aviation universally accepted around the world.
In October 2021 the Biden administration stated that strong evidence of weapons ferrying into and between Ethiopia and Eritrea would be justification for sanctions against the airline. Although officials at Ethiopian Airlines initially refuted the claims they later changed the message after numerous well documented instances were revealed to say that they were loyal and proper in what they were doing. Fair trade practices with duty free imports to the United States are governed by Ethiopia agreeing to follow human rights practices which it has not.
The new vulnerability and limits on Ethiopian Airlines is bringing in a new vigor for other African countries to develop alternative airlines instead of allowing the continuing monopoly. At the recent Dubai Airshow this past month, Air Tanzania, Uganda Airlines and RwandAir made major commitments with Airbus and Boeing to buy new aircraft while the cash strapped Ethiopian Airlines only worked on trying to lower maintenance costs. Many speculate that Ethiopian Airlines is in trouble financially because the reduced traffic has caused difficulty to make the payments on the millions of dollars in aircraft leases held.
A young child with his mother visits a clinic in Southern Tigray which now have no supplies of medication or intravenous hydration
For young children in Tigray the availability of health care facilities and safe transport to them, intravenous hydration, and antibiotics for treatment can make all the difference whether a child lives or dies from infection which was the leading cause of death for those under age of 5 even before the Ethiopia Tigray conflict. This adds to many children already dying everyday from starvation.
This week health officials in Addis Ababa are celebrating improved use of antibiotics in Ethiopia but remain silent on the fact that for almost a year there has been no supply of antibiotics to save the lives of innocent children in Tigray. It seems they feel no responsibility to the welfare of children in Tigray. Given the Ethiopian blockade and the resistance of international authorities to challenge the humanitarian catastrophe in Tigray it is reliably expectant without a doubt that many times more children are dying.
The leading cause of death of children in Ethiopia under age 5 has been well established to be infectious disease. A study looking at demographic data and disease statistics in 2019 before the Ethiopian Tigray conflicted indicated that male children, 0–11 months aged children, 12–23 months aged children, anemic children, husband with a lower education, mothers paid employment, non-breastfed children, regions of Amhara, Afar, Dire Dawa, Benishangul, Gambela, Oromia, SNNPR, Somali and Tigray were significantly associated with higher odds of morbidity in Ethiopia.
The general effects of the war contribute further to the medical crisis. Lack of fuel for public means of transportation means that for the mostly rural population of Tigray there is no way to seek medical consultation.
Severe budget cuts due to the need for war spending more than doubling the Ethiopian government budget has now resulted in medical supply shortages throughout Ethiopia not just Tigray. Even in discussions I had recently with some in the SNNP this is a growing situation. So it is likely death rates for young children from infection are increasing nationwide now not just in Tigray.
