Tag: ethiopia tigray conflict

Increasing food shortage in Tigray and Ethiopia forecasted in 2022

The latest forecast for food shortage in Tigray and Ethiopia through May 2022

Ethiopia’s lack of agricultural development causing increasing food imports versus exports and ongoing poor rains are contributing to a worsening food crisis through much of the country. The Ethiopian blockade continues to prevent significant food transport to Tigray and distribution within the regional state. Food insecurity in Tigray and Ethiopia will not improve in 2022. 

The Famine Early Warnings Systems Network outlook for Ethiopia and Tigray through May 2022 sees no significant improvement in the food supply crisis. Tigray will remain in famine, most of Eastern Ethiopia will be  in an emergency or crisis state.

Ethiopia’s high government budget deficit spending billions of dollars for weapons and focus on war with a concomitant lack of attention to food production in addition to environmental factors is contributing to the food security crisis in areas other than Tigray.

Displacement of millions, inflation of food prices, and reduced income for selling livestock in Ethiopia will contribute significantly to food insecurity. Extremely poor rainfall in most of the region over the past two years has resulted in significant livestock death and limitations on the normal migration patterns of pastoralists. 

Ethiopia’s failure to develop agricultural is resulting in a decreasing ability to export food items and greater need to import them. Source: Brookings Institute

A Brookings Institute analysis suggested Ethiopia had been slow to develop the agricultural industry which makes up the most of the Ethiopian economic output. Whereas in the past food exports had contributed to acquiring foreign currency necessary to buy necessary import now there is much less available extra production in excess of domestic needs.  The country exports mostly raw products without processing to create added value, has poor financing, transport, marketing, and commercialization on an industrial scale. 

Food costs increased 41.6% year-on-year mainly due to a jump in the prices of vegetables, meat, milk, cheese, eggs and spices. Those for coffee beans and non-alcoholic beverages also increased. Source Bloombergs

The unhindered use of social media to promote Tigray genocide continues

An Amhara ENDF soldier, Geremew Demse, proudly posts on social media pictures and video of his participation in Tigray massacres. Source Tghat

The official dehumanization of Tigrayans by  Ethiopian and Eritrean supporters combined with social media celebration of murderous acts against noncombants  belays the clear intent of evil intended to be rendered. While nefarious propaganda from supporters of the Ethiopian and Eritrea governments claim there is no proof of genocide now numerous and growing examples have been posted on Facebook and other social media as egregious records of duty by members of these forces themselves.

Numerous social media exists even before the conflict with Ethiopia government officials and their clerico-fascist supporters in the rogue Ethiopian Orthodox Church and Protestant factions who say Tigray require complete extermination and support the blockade of food, medicine, and other basic necessities even though this violates the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights to which Ethiopia is a signatory by membership. This attitude was no doubt an aggravating factor in generating the ongoing genocide of Tigrayans.

One example now well documented by Tghat is Geremew Demse from the Amhara region and at one time a member of the United Nations Peace Keeping Force in Sudan. He posted pictures and video where he selects a male teenager to be executed during the  Mahbere Dego massacre. Subsequently a long line of many young men is seen being marched to their death.

Unfortunately this is just one of at least hundreds or maybe even thousands. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism and the Guardian have reported that Facebook has been inept in impeding these practices. Many nonpolitical Tigrayans living in other regions of Ethiopia whose families have been abducted and killed leading experts to believe that these were “vigilante” actions inspired by social media and encouraged by Ethiopia and Eritrea. One such case out of many is Gebremichael Teweldmedhin, a Tigrayan jeweller abducted three months ago in Gonder, a city in the Amhara region.

While Facebook has been under severe criticism by media critics for allowing this practice to continue almost unabated there has been not a single word from the Ethiopian or Eritrean government. This can only lead to the conclusion that Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afeworki endorse this method of inflicting hate into their followers and promoting more terror upon the Tigray people.

Ethiopia government needs to show respect for humanity to regain US trust

The international relations of the United States are guided by four main goals including protection of human rights and promoting democracy

By international norms of conduct both moral and legal, UN treaty obligations between member states, and finally in insuring treaty partners of the United States give due diligence to their sworn promises the United States must continue with completion of the terms in House Resolution 6600. For over a year the United States showed generous patience in trying to find humane protections for noncombatants including women and children to no avail largely on the part of Ethiopia. Statements by Ethiopian Foreign Minister Dina Mufti in his complaints fails to understand that international relations are governed by bilateral respect for humanity and regard for human life not just by association. The State Department of the United States has four main foreign policy goals: Protect the United States and Americans; Advance democracy, human rights, and other global interests; … Support U.S. diplomats, government officials, and all other personnel at home and abroad who make these goals a reality.

Both the United States and Ethiopia are members of the United Nations which means they have signed international treaties which carry the weight of law including but not limited to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Declaration of the Rights of the Child. This measure specifies that Ethiopia had a duty to protect Tigrayan and other ethnic groups suffering under the conflict from harm and provide the basic necessities of life which it absolutely neglected and in fact actively contributed to deprivation of security, food, health care, communication, power, and transportation.

Within just the last year the United States rendered over $ 1 billion in aid mostly for humanitarian relief to Ethiopia. The United States is the largest donor of aid to Ethiopia and aids Ethiopia more than any other country in Africa. Until the recent discontinuation of the African Growth and Opportunity treaty because of violation of agreed upon conditions Ethiopia averaged intakes of $237 million in tax free exports to the USA yearly. The American people are a generous lot who are willing to see their hard earned treasure help democracy but are not wanting to contribute to a regime growing more despotic by the day.

 

Congress passes sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea to halt Tigray atrocity restore democracy

 
House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a bipartisan bill introduced by Representatives Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) and Young Kim (R-CA) that requires the administration to take additional measures to seek an end to the brutal civil war in Ethiopia.

While Abiy Ahmed and his supporters thought further American action against violations against humanity was not forthcoming they made a major misjudgment. Although the United States State Department, African Union, and United Nations had been meeting with Ethiopian government and Tigray leaders for months no significant progress had been made  to bring stability to the Horn of Africa. Famine threatening millions , mass killing of civilians, displacement and deprivation of human needs including medical care are worsening in Tigray.  Significant interference in Ethiopian affairs by Eritrea and other countries only seems to create chaos.  This reality  caused the United States Congress to take action against Ethiopia, Eritrea, and any others contributing to the instability.

Despite promises of the Ethiopian government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made months ago to the United Nations to “allow unfettered access” of humanitarian aid, peace negotiation, and real investigation of human rights violations Congress could wait no longer such that yesterday a bipartisan bill (Ethiopia Stabilization, Peace, and Democracy Act) passed with the following key features according to Rep. Tom Malinowski of New Jersey:

    • Require the State Department to develop a plan for supporting democracy and human rights in Ethiopia, including plans to combat hate speech online, support accountability measures for atrocities and efforts to buttress a national dialogue;
    • Authorize the President to impose sanctions on individuals who undermine negotiations to end the conflict, commit human rights abuses, exacerbate corruption, or provide weapons to any hostile party;
    • Suspend all security assistance to the governments of Ethiopia until it ceases offensive operations, takes steps towards a national dialogue, improves protection of human rights, allows unfettered humanitarian access to conflict areas, and investigates allegations of war crimes;
    • Require the administration to oppose loans or other financial assistance from international agencies like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea unless for humanitarian purposes until they take steps to end the war and restore respect for human rights; and  
    • Require a determination from the State Department concerning allegations of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide in Ethiopia.

This latest actions follows a United States Senate Resolution passed in May 2021 with bipartisan support stating calling for the immediate cessation of hostilities in the Tigray region of Ethiopia and condemns all violence against civilians. Further, the resolution calls on Eritrea to withdraw its military forces from Ethiopia, and it urges all parties to the conflict to cease hostilities and work to protect human rights. The resolution also calls on relevant U.S. agencies to take specified actions that encourage an end to the conflict and provide humanitarian support.

Additionally many are noting the request by Somaliland to be identified as an independent country which is offering use of the Berbera port and establishment of US military base to solidify protection of United States strategic interests in the Horn of Africa. 

Joint American and Pan-African lawyers filing to AU court to stop genocide

A Pan-African coalition of lawyers and Americans filed the complaint to get the African Union to stop the atrocities committed by Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discussed it in a video posted by Human Rights Watch.

A coalition of African and American lawyers has filed a complaint of mass killings, violations of women, and military targeting of civilians in Tigray with the African Court on Human and People’s Rights. While the previous joint report by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the UN has been widely criticized as biased and limited many are hoping for a just outcome and action to stop the Tigray genocide. Debevoise & Plimpton LLP has partnered with Legal Action Worldwide (LAW), as well as the Pan-African Lawyers Union (PALU), to submit a landmark complaint against Ethiopia.

The ACHPR investigation has been different in that many interviews have been done via live internet with first hand witnesses and medical providers including members of Mekelle University and others from Tigray who were able to evacuate outside the country. Although initially there was robust discussions including a statement asking for the cessation of air attacks affecting civilians the ACHPR investigation seemed to have quieted down in the past few months after a recommendation was made to have “experts sent to Ethiopia” to further investigate. This same discussion of experts was done at the recent African Union summit but in regards to peace negotiations without discussion of investigation.

The African Commission on Human Rights and Peoples Rights was created in 1987 and has a mandate to perform review and investigation of human rights violations with treaty members which include Ethiopia and Eritrea which are charter members. While Ethiopia is not signatory to the International Criminal Court it is subject to the African Court on Human and People’s Rights to provide legal opinions regarding complaints filed of it’s charter members.

Since the first reports of human rights abuses in the invasion of Tigray by Eritrean, Ethiopian nationals, mercenaries, and Amhara militia forces the Ethiopian government has sought to minimize their impact. In February 2021 when the former  Minister of Women, Children, and Youth for Ethiopia, Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed, went to occupied Mekelle  to review early findings. Although she said violations of women “occurred conclusively and without a doubt” this view was not shared by the Ethiopian government. 

Subsequently, a joint report from the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the African Union which was very limited in the scope of where and with whom it conducted investigation. No interviews of health care providers in Tigray who provided treatment to victims were done. Much of the investigation was done by phone calls only to “witnesses” arranged by the occupying force who could be reasonably assumed to be under duress. Many areas such as Axum were not included in the joint report.

The world must hear the bell tolling for every victim of the Ethiopian war

Tsigereda Girmay a twenty year old ethnic Tigrayan was stabbed to death at Arbaminch University in Southern Ethiopia where she was a college student on January 31, 2022.

The 16th Century English cleric and poet, John Donne, wrote in his famous Meditation 17 that when the Church buries a person it is a chapter out of all of mankind’s existence. That when the bell tolls for one who has passed it is ringing for all of us to hear. In this terrible war between Ethiopia, Tigray, Oromia and others as in previous wars it is all to easy to become numb to death. We need to see the true horror and loss of this young woman and remember it has been multiplied more than hundreds of thousands if not a million times. 

The Biblical story of our creation in Genesis reminds us we are all a creation of God and priceless in our worth. John Donne declared that the death of any person should concern us because we must be involved in all mankind. Deranged calls for extermination, starvation, violence against once fellow countrymen are not actions of glory but endeavors in blasphemy against the ways of God espoused by the Christian and Islamic faiths. Government leaders and all good people of faith must come together now to find a just peace for the suffering in Tigray and Northern Ethiopia. 

The Ethiopian propaganda machine is saying she was Amhara but this is a lie. She is from Adi Remets. Here is video on Twitter where she is singing she is Tigrinya and TPLF which cannot be taken away.

Tsigereda Girmay singing she is Tigrinya and TPLF and it cannot be taken away

https://twitter.com/Kb_Tigraway/status/1489717676549283841

Are the Tigrayans another Rohingya betrayed by the Nobel Peace Prize?

Nobel Peace Prize winners, Aby Ahmed and Aung San Suu Kyi, dealings with genocide are following a similar course

Will the world’s attention and will to act fall away from the injustice in Tigray just has happened in Myanmar to the Rohingya? After intentional famine imposed on millions of Tigrayans, unjustified imprisonment of innocents, as well as hundreds of civilian deaths by drone attacks Nobel Prize winner Abiy Ahmed’s leadership in Ethiopia seems to be following in a similar pattern to that of a previous winner, Aung San Suu Kyi. Esteemed leaders who bought time doing little until the world eventually lost interest.

In 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi was hailed as “bringing power to the powerless” winning the Nobel Peace Prize then in 2015 she was elected in the “first democratic election of Myanmar” to lead the country. However in 2017 Myanmar security forces carried out genocidal violence as described by the United Nations displacing several hundred thousand Rohingya within Myanmar and another 740,000 people fleeing to neighboring Bangladesh. At the time  Kyi remained silent on issue and was criticized by many of the world’s leaders. Since the early 2000s her status has been shaky in Myanmar as her power has been continually challenged by the military whom she has been adverse to criticize calling them “sweet”. She and the military leaders have imprisoned the press and limited free speech.

Despite intense world-wide attention for a few years Myanmar has made no significant progress in resolving the crisis, or providing accountability and justice for the victims. The court-martial conviction of three military personnel for crimes against Rohingya reflects ongoing government efforts to evade meaningful accountability, scapegoating a few low-level soldiers rather than seriously investigating the military leadership who directed and oversaw the atrocity crimes.  Today almost one million Rohingya refugees live in the world’s largest refugee camps in Bangledesh’s Cox Bazar Region. Meanwhile Rohingya remain without rights of citizenship such as voting, owning a business, or even to work in Myanmar. 

A brief inquiry was officially made by the United Nations to see how the UN could have better responded to the crisis but placed no blame. The International Criminal Court found that changes in election procedures, law enforcement, and civil rights were needed but nothing substantial has happened.

Leaked report on Ethiopian plan for Tigray war admits failing economy

One page of the leaked plan for ending the conflict with Tigray. The full document is here.

The release of a leaked document of Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party Meeting at Hawassa, December 2021, entitled, The journey towards prosperity through permanent victory: War aftermath challenges and redress, after victory over Tigray PLF reveals that the Ethiopia government is well aware that continuing the armed conflict with the Tigray Defense Forces will likely lead to economic ruin for Ethiopia. The goal of continuing the conflict in the short term was to weaken the spirit of the Tigray so that Ethiopia could bargain from a strong position. Ethiopia believed the United States interest in the conflict related to wanting to remove Isaias Afwerki as head of Eritrea. Discussion was being held about limiting the power of the Amhara militia group, FANO. 

The growing weakness and worsening forecast of the Ethiopian economy for the next year was highlighted in a recent forecast. The highly regarded Fitch Country Risk and Industry Research group published an economic forecast for Ethiopia this week that sees continued worsening deficit in the Ethiopian government fiscal accounts for at least the next year. While the Ethiopian government has boasted almost $1.1 billion in revenue from coffee exports of 280,000 tons this year a close look by Fitch determined that Ethiopian coffee production would increase by only 0.3% in the near future. At the same time world wide prices for coffee are expected to fall by 6.3. Coffee exports make up about 32% of the total exports from Ethiopia. 

The removal of Ethiopia for the foreseeable future from the African Growth and Opportunity Act will see the trade deficit from necessary imports to Ethiopia increase from $9.3 to $10 billion yearly.  The potential for future improvement in Ethiopian economy is now heavily dependent on the peaceful resolution of conflicts within Ethiopia involving the Tigray and Oromo This would weigh heavily on investor sentiment and foreign capital inflows, weakening the country’s balance-of-payment position.

Similarly, the World Bank continues to see challenges in Ethiopia’s development due to ongoing conflict. Ethiopia has one of the lowest Human Development Indexes in the world at 0.38 which reflects the economic potential of the average citizen. The diversion of educational funds, nutritional support, and health funding by the Abiy Ahmed lead Prosperity Party to buying weapons (reports are that Ethiopia wants to quadruple military spending) and increasing deficits is leading to an uneducated and unhealthly workforce which will be unable to develop the country. 

Cruel irony of Ethiopia celebrating Epiphany after the Axum massacre

The Chapel of the Tablet in Aksum, Ethiopia claims to be the final resting place of the Ark of the Covenant. Armed forces under orders from Abiy Ahmed desecrated Aksum.

A special role of the Tigray in Ethiopian Christian history is evident today which is the eve of the Epiphany.  According to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church calendar the baptism of Jesus Christ by John the Baptist will be celebrated in a two festival.  On the first day, Ketera (meaning  blocking of waters for celebration) traditionally the congregants lead by the priest escort a tabot, which is a replica of the Ark of the Covenant, to initiate the holiday. On the second day after the celebration the tabot is returned to the church. This shows the continuity between the Jewish roots and Christian traditions in the saga of the Axumite empire.

The Ethiopian Orthodox Church began in Tigray in the city of Axum when in the 4th century King Ezana officially adopted Christianity.  Many centuries before the Queen of Sheba of the same area had born a son, Menelik, from the Israeli king Solomon and according to church tradition had brought the original Ark of the Covenant to Axum. 

Between November 19 and 20, 2020 Eritrean invaders came to Axum and killed hundreds of church worshipers. They left the bodies where they lay and did not allow the families to remove the bodies for several days. No doubt this attack was approved by the Ethiopian government. It escapes me how Ethiopians can celebrate this holiday after desecrating the traditional home of the Ark of the Covenant.

Ultimate hypocrisy of Ethiopia saying drone attacks on civilians cannot be justified

The statement of the Ethiopian government condemning drone attacks on civilians in UAE while continuing to carry them out against civilians in Tigray is outrageous

In recent weeks almost 200 innocent Tigray civilians including women and children have been killed by drones under the command of the Ethiopian government. Yet today in a statement of egregious blasphemy the Ethiopian government sent a letter to a supplier of the deadly drones, United Arab  Emirates after they suffered a drone attack from rebels in Yemen. The letter goes so far as to say that attacks on civilians are cowardly that “neither the norms of humanity or international law can justify”.

Following World War II the United Nations was formed with the basic tenet of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The members of the United Nations agree to principally follow these directives. Yet Ethiopia continues to openly kill and starve civilians as well violated just about every article of the UN mandate.