The TDF is caring for thousands of ENDF, FANO, and Oromo POWS in rehabilitation camps
What happened to injured Tigray POWs and injured Oromia soldiers fighting in Tigray before the reoccupation of Tigray by the TDF(Tigray Defense Force)?
You hear a lot of news and see many videos of captured ENDF(Ethiopian National Defense Force) and Amhara fighters now in TDF custody but what happened to Tigray fighters captured by the ENDF and Eritreans?
I was at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital through the beginning of the war continuing to the beginning of January 2021 and I have been trying to investigate where this prisoners are located. We know that the Ethiopian and Eritrean government had planned a major assault on Tigray from some time before the events of November 4th 2020. The government had lined up casualty treatment hospitals with volunteer doctors mostly from Addis Ababa University to be based at Woldia during the major assault on Tigray and ending in Mekelle.
During the first two weeks of the war we treated civilians, Tigray Defense Forces soldiers, Ethiopian National Defense Soldiers, and Eritreans at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A short time after the occupation of the city of Mekelle, the military commander of the the Ethiopian occupying forces decided to move injured ENDF and Eritrean fighters to a new military hospital that had just been constructed recently. This went on for a few weeks. The Red Cross showed up soon upon the start of the conflict and we wanted them to collect information on all injured persons but they were turned away by the Ethiopian authorities.
Medical supplies to Ayder Hospital and the military hospital essentially ceased and the Ethiopian military decided to treat their casualties in an open air hospital constructed in the newly built football stadium near the Martyrs Museum which was serving as the commanding generals headquarters.
After this the story of what happened gets difficult to follow. Many Amhara patients were transferred out of Tigray to Amhara hospitals including Woldia but not everyone.
There is a rising story that preferential treatment was given to Amhara FANO fighters and Ethiopian National Defense Forces while Oromo soldiers who were thought to be “poor candidates to survive” received less care and where often allowed to die.
Additionally most to the Tigray Defense fighters as well as many civilians including rape victims of the invading forces were removed from Ayder Hospital as I and other witnessed and never to be seen or heard from again. At this time there are no reports of any Tigray POWs in any hospital anywhere. Most of the photos given to the Ethiopian press labeled as Tigray POW have not been fighters but college students detained, Tigray residents from Addis Ababa, and refugees returning from Saudi Arabi.
It has recently been reported by several sources that some detainees of this group were summarily executed without any legal proceeding.
The question remains where are Tigray POWS? Where are the Oromia fighters injured that were fighting in Tigray?
During the plague of misery and abuse suffered by Tigray this year there has emerged a hero, a symbol of the persistent courage even in the face of overwhelming inhumanity to the Tegaru (the people of the Tigray regional state). In the midst of this unholy chaos a very young school girl who has come to be recognized as “Baby Donut” has reaffirmed the cultural character that defines Tigray.
She was outside of her school which was ransacked and taken by the invading armies when she was questioned by the enemy soldiers. She boldly asks them in a defiant manner why did they destroy her school. Why are they here in Tigray? They should leave and have done bad things. It should be remembered that this same group of soldiers had already committed terrible acts and this behavior put the young girl in real danger. The following video is a partial record of this encounter.
During the occupation of Mekelle and most of Tigray from November 2020 through the liberation of Mekelle in July 2021 horrible things were done to the people and civil institutions of Tigray. Ethiopian National Defense Force, Eritrean Army, and Amhara militias ransacked businesses, killed military age men down to newborns, raped and mutilated tens of thousands of women some as young as age 4. Such horrors are still going on in Western Tigray.
Now that at least Mekelle has been liberated President Debretsion Gebremichael (not pictured here) and advisor Getachew Reda welcome the visit of Baby Donut.
“Baby Donut” visits with the leaders of the Tigray Regional State
Like ancient Israel Ethiopia will fall without cohesion of a strong pious leader endorsed by righteous religious authority. This long and widely held political religious viewpoint has been directly assimilated into support for Abiy Ahmed by his supporters. They prophesize his fall from power will bring an unholy chaos and downfall of the state.
Abiy Ahmed visits deposed Abune Merkorios of the Ethiopia Orthodox Church who is supported by many diaspora
The origin of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church
The Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC) traces it history first to Hebrew traditions historically brought to Ethiopia by the Queen of Sheba and her son Menelik I who was fathered by the Hebrew King Solomon. Subsequently Judaism as the state religion gave way to Christianity in the third century AD under King Ezana. The EOC retained many Jewish features such as the kosher diet in part because of the nine Syrian Jewish Christians who came to Ethiopia and brought Scripture in the Geez language. Tewahedo, the concept of Jesus being of one mixed substance indivisible one from the other, separates it from Western and Eastern European Christology. Many Ethiopians see the parallels in the story of the struggle of the Jewish state and that of Ethiopia. They see this struggle as being dependent on the pious observance of the Ethiopian people.
Early on the EOC differentiated itself from the Western Roman Catholic Church and the Byzantium Church in the this concept of Tweahedo but also by accepting Donatism. In simple terms this meant that priest had to be absolutely holy and without corruption otherwise they are incapable of performing priestly duties including especially rituals of forgiveness and the eucharist. It also gave them a higher status in many ways to even the monarchy or political leaders. This lent and continues to lend authority to the words of clergy to the population.
They did however look to Emperor Constantine as a model of imperial orthodoxy. Similar to what happened in Europe during the middle ages a partnership developed between the EOC and the monarchy. The holy nature of the clergy gave them authority to proclaim Ethiopian monarchy as being chosen by divine will.
Strength through unity expands the empire and protects it
Initially the Ethiopian empire was born out of the Axumite Empire bordering the Red Sea and even some territory in Yemen consisting of the Semitic speaking peoples we know today as the Tigray and Amhara. Over the centuries holdings in Yemen were lost but the new Solomonic dynasty began to spread south and west. The Cushitic peoples of western, southern, and eastern Ethiopia were overcome and became subjects of the empire. However fierce rivalries grew within the empire leading to many episodes of betrayal, assassination, and wars. Additionally there were times when Muslims who make up at least a third and maybe 40% of the population fought the empire. Ethiopian Christians believe their “God derived” unity and tolerance towards Muslims who accepted subjugation preserved the Christian state.
This intertwining of destiny, religion, and the need to keep power created even academic misrepresentations of Ethiopian history propagated by the ruling Amhara monarchy. For example that the Oromo people were immigrants to the Ethiopia and that Muslims were meant to be graciously accepted as refugees from the pagan Saudi kingdom but not part of the Ethiopian manifest destiny. Cushitics were inferior and meant to be ruled by Amhara.
The prophetic chaos of the time of princes (without a king)
Fear of the danger of collapse of the empire from disunity happened during the period referred to as Zemene Mesafint in 1769 through 1865AD which is an analogy to the collapse of the 12 tribes of Israel in Jewish history which rendered them susceptible to invaders. Additionally the analogy goes further that this collapse was due to following away from God. Even though the Emperor Tewodros II lost to the British in war and committed suicide he is glorified as an example of strength in this unity.
Divisions develop in the Ethiopian Orthodox Church
Over the past century the EOC has developed significant divisions in its ranks. Over a half century beginning in the Caribbean Islands critics of the leadership of the Ethiopian Church began to develop. This was in part driven by the concept that Cushitic peoples of Ethiopia especially in the western and southern regions did not have the same citizenship status or rights as Northern Ethiopians. Amharic royalty had become the holders of power leading to the allowance of slavery and land acquisition of Cushitic’s. Many Oromos were characterized also as pagans for not joining the EOC. This facilitated their increased conversion to Islam and opened the way for the introduction of evangelical protestants to flourish.
Large numbers of diaspora came to the United States and Europe during the Derg regime Tigray Peoples Liberation Front conflict which followed the end of the monarchy. Opposition groups distrusted the appointments of the Patriarchs leading the EOC in Ethiopia as being too aligned with the Derg and subsequently the TPLF. Three groups of EOC churches developed, the unrecognized Holy Synod in exile, the neutral, and those loyal to the Patriarch over the past two decades.
Additionally, many Protestant converts, both in the diaspora and native Ethiopian population have now joined up with those in the Holy Synod in Exile fearing that a repeat Zemene Mesafintwill happen. Currently under order of the the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abune Mathias, the head of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, has accused the government of wanting to destroy Tigray and been placed under house arrest.
The Tigrayan Abune Mathias of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church is under house arrest
Many Ethiopian Protestant converts and exiled EOC members as well as Amharic factions in Ethiopia see Abiy Ahmed as the continuation of the partnership of political religious alliance that has been the prophecy of success for Ethiopia. While others see this as just a pretense for the continuation of expansionist Amharic elitism camouflaged by religion.
How Ethiopia’s conflict has affected farming in Tigray
In north Ethiopia, farmers commonly use an ox-drawn single-tined plough called mahrasha. Photo by: Edwin Remsberg / VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Situated in the northern periphery of Ethiopia, about 75% of the 5.7 million population of Tigray are farmers. Most people who live there depend on local yields for survival. It’s expected that there’ll be an even greater demand on local yields this year because millions cannot be reached with aid and last year’s harvest largely failed.
Hence, we set out to know what the state of farming is in Tigray. We were concerned that, due to warfare, ploughing and planting might not occur on time or at all.
Tigray’s growing period is generally 90 to 120 days long, depending on weather conditions in different areas. This stretches from June to September. Land preparation (ploughing) usually happens between March and July.
We investigated the status of ploughing from a distance because, due to the war, we couldn’t be present on the ground. Our main research tools were satellite imagery and telephone communications. This study covered March to early June 2021.
Sadly, our findings revealed a painful situation in which farmers try to grow crops, but they’ve lost many of their assets and fear for their lives. War conditions have made ploughing very challenging as oxen, used to plough farmlands, have been looted and deliberately killed. In addition, there was hardly any access to farm inputs such as seed and fertiliser, while farm tools have been destroyed by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers.
The targeted destruction of Tigray’s economic basis – especially the agricultural sector – has been framed as a deliberate attempt to starve Tigray.
Tillage in Tigray
Crop cultivation in Tigray has a long history as settled agriculture started more than 3,000 years ago. This is reflected in the region’s high crop diversity, including endemic crops, such as the renowned tef cereal. Overall, farmers have small plots (less than a hectare in total). They mainly grow subsistence crops on rain-fed lands and cash crops on irrigated lands in narrow river valley bottoms.
Farmers in Tigray have modernised a lot over the last decades: they use mineral fertilisers and selected seeds and advice is mainly provided by the Office of Agriculture.
As a whole, we found that rainfall conditions in early 2021 were conducive to a normal planting season. However, we contrasted bird’s eye photographs with historical Google Earth imagery and saw that in early May, in comparison to previous years, less cropland had been ploughed.
To better understand why this was happening, we used 17 telephone interviews with key witnesses – all of whom who are well experienced within Tigray’s agricultural sector and have strong networks.
Challenges to farming
Several key reasons were given for why land wasn’t being prepared.
In many cases, soldiers – mostly mentioned were Eritrean soldiers who had entered Tigray as an ally of the Ethiopian forces – weren’t allowing farmers to plough their land. They told farmers, “we are here fighting to die, and you want to plough?”
Another reason was that young men, who would usually do most of the tillage work, left for fear of being killed. Some became fighters.
Having experienced atrocities, many young Tigrayans felt compelled to join the forces. A witness said:
The number of youngsters joining the Tigrayan Defence Forces per household may vary based on what happened in their surroundings (especially massacres, rape and destruction). In a village that I know well, almost all the young men joined after witnessing the indiscriminate killing of 13 people.
Even if farmers were “allowed” to farm, the absence of farm implements and inputs was often quoted as a major challenge. An agricultural expert in Mekelle said that:
Most oxen have been slaughtered or looted by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers. The Eritrean soldiers are not only disallowing farmers to plough but also burnt and destroyed their farm tools.
And a staff member of Mekelle University said that:
There are no farm inputs (seeds and fertilisers) available, and many oxen have been taken (without which ploughing is impossible).
Who farmed has also changed. Farmers feared that they’d be killed while ploughing. We were told that, in some places, during the daytime elderly people, women and children worked on the lands. Adult men worked at night and stayed in the village during the day because they were a target of the Ethiopian army and supporting Eritrean forces.
Still hope, but…
Farmers have been late with land preparation, but in June most rural areas came under the control of the Tigray forces. This meant that farmers could start working on their land again. Rural markets – where farmers bought or exchanged seeds – thrived.
Despite the difficult conditions, a big effort was made in June and July to prepare the land for crops. An analysis of True Colour Composite images (combining the red, green and blue bands of Sentinel satellite imagery) showed that, by June, most farmlands had been tilled at least once – the share of exposed dark earth was similar to that of 2019 or 2020.
But this wasn’t uniform across the region. Western Tigray, for instance, remains occupied by Amhara Special Forces and militia. Most farmlands have not been tilled and, on the satellite imagery, many display the typical reddish colour of the standing unharvested sorghum from last year.
We do have hope though for many farmers. Tigrayan smallholder farming systems are resilient. From interviews, we learned that farmers adapted by switching to crops that require minimal management and to fast-growing cereal landraces. Cereals require less human presence on the fields (as compared to tomatoes or onions for instance), hence less risk for the farmers to encounter soldiers and get killed.
Nevertheless, for many the last food that people had at hand has been consumed and the next harvest will only be in November. And we read that a fresh locust infestation is threatening.
While it was in a minimal food insecurity situation before the war, the larger part of Tigray has now entered emergency and famine conditions. This corresponds to at least two starvation deaths per 10,000 inhabitants per day in areas under famine.
In April 2018 Abiy Ahmed the new appointed Prime Minister of Ethiopia came to visit Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, with a message of hope, cooperation, and development. As a teenager in the Ethiopian Army he had served in the Tigray region and learned Tigrinya, the native language. He watched a circus show, sat with Tigray People Liberation Front leaders, and talked about a future together. Before his visit he had stated that it was time for a new era for all regions to work together. That the country should look forward and not be focused in the past.
Abiy Ahmed sits with TPLF leaders at the Mekelle Monument to Martyrs
He talked about infrastructure development including hydroelectric dams, a railroad project, the Mekelle water problem, giving support to private sector development , loans for investment, export support from the national bank, improving tourism, bringing public meter taxi for Mekelle, and a short lease proclamation for agriculture. None of these things ever happened.
Instead after his visit there came to be a movement in Ethiopia about the need to deal with the past. In late 2018, the Prime Minister created a Reconciliation Commission “to maintain peace justice, national unity and consensus as well as Reconciliation among Ethiopian Peoples.”
Discussion began about injustice under the Monarchy, the Derg, and the Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Front under whose auspices Abiy Ahmed came to power as a compromise between Amhara and Oromia factions. Soon however, this effort which lacked any clear mandate, become a mechanism for consolidating power.
By the 2019 budgets for the Tigray state which were calculated by population formulas used for all regions were beginning to be cut. Many former political leaders including those of the TPLF were sought out for arrest. Ethnic identity in the Amhara region, and other regions as well, which normally had about 10% Tigray became an issue. There were pushes which began subtilty but then became open and forceful causing many Tigray to leave other regions and move back to Tigray. Abiy Ahmed was using the usual formula for dictators by creating a Tigray strawman. He began to turn on even those who facilitated his rise namely Jawar Mohammed from Oromia.
On the occasion of the 2019 harvest and women’s festival Ashenda , Abiy Ahmed sent a message that Tigray culture was an important and vital part of Ethiopia. In a speech to Parliament he stated that the TPLF and Tigray leadership were examples to follow for other regions in Ethiopia.
The Tigray Ethiopia conflict which was the end result of almost two years of escalating actions against the Tigrayan ethnicity was touted as a “law enforcement action”. That the Ethiopian government was going to free the Tegaru people from the crimes committed against them by the TPLF. Instead with its expatriate Eritrean allies it looted, killed, raped, and stole from the very people Abiy Ahmed said he would “liberate”. Finally he sarcastically complained that he had to remove his army from Mekelle because the Tegaru were helping the Tigray government too much.
Today more than 300,000 Tegaru are suffering famine. Aid is being actively blocked by the Ethiopian government. Revolts are now active in Beningshagul, Afar, Oromia, Agew, Somali, and Gambella who also feel betrayed. Hope has been replaced to a fight for survival against a great betrayal.
Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital campus of Mekelle University
Every once in a while I receive audio communication from Mekelle. This was a summary of what they told me of the situation on August 19,2021. Starvation, lack of healthcare, and the continuing blockade to help the situation continue.
Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital of Mekelle University
This is normally the tertiary hospital for Tigray and surrounding regions having a catchment area of about 10 million. It is part of the second largest medical school, research center, and training center for medical specialties in Ethiopia. Although civil non-violent actions stopped complete destruction of the hospital by Eritrean and Ethiopian National Defense Forces the hospital now is almost at a standstill. Having no antibiotics, no insulin, no cancer medications, cardiac medications, working ICU, no c-section or blood transfusion for delivery, no ambulance service the population of Tigray has been rendered to having essentially without healthcare. No laboratory equipment, x-ray machine, anesthesia machines work anywhere in Tigray. From smaller hospitals most of the equipment was taken as war booty to Eritrea. Many hospital were ransacked and bombarded by artillery. There is very little diesel available to run the hospital generator.
Currently the hospital being overwhelmed with many patients lying in hall ways with starvation victims. Children especially are the most vulnerable so they make the majority of victims. There are outbreaks also of COVID-19 and other viral diseases because no immunizations are available. Recent outbreaks of rabies have occurred because hungry vicious dogs are roaming the streets. Ayder has no rabies treatment available. There is only few intravenous bags left and those are being used to try to help infant and child victims of starvation. There is now a World Health Organization team in place to assess and assist but their pleas for help are ignored by the Ethiopian government.
Everyday more victims of abuse both male and female are coming to the hospital for counseling and care. High numbers of families are disconnected from others trying to find their loved ones.
The staff and physicians of the hospital and university have not been paid for three months. The food supply is gradually deteriorating and is much worse in the countryside. Ethiopia blocked planting and killed livestock during the occupation of Mekelle. Stores of seeds, fertilizer, farming equipment were taken as war booty to Eritrea.
Condition of the Tigray Power Supply -19August 19, 2021 Electric power remains out in all of Tigray. There is a very sparse supply of fuel for any generators and when available it comes at a high price.
The Tekezé Dam normally has four turbines that produce 300 mw of electricity through a 105 kilometer transmission line to Mekelle. It was severely damaged by the Ethiopian National Defense Force and Eritrean forces leading up and during their occupation of eastern Tigray. Now I am informed that work is going on to at least partially repair the damage. Apparently the current water level is not high enough to make use of what is currently functional so they are hoping with more time the level may rise. Significant components need to be replaced but this blocked by the Ethiopian blockade. They are hoping some interim repairs will allow partial function when the water level rises from the rainy season.
The Tekezé Dam was attacked and rendered nonfunctional by Eritrean and Ethiopian National Defense Forces
The Ashegoda wind project was similarly sabotaged by Eritrean and Ethiopian National Defense Forces. This wind farm close to the Mekelle airport can produce 120 MW power out of 30 turbines that can meet the needs of 3 million people in Tigray. I am informed that vital parts have been damaged or stolen and then taken to Eritrea. In order to repair these vital structures supplies and expertise must be allowed past the current Ethiopian blockade.
For Ethiopians previously not affected by the Ethiopian Tigray conflict it is now time to come to reality. Now is the time for all to realistically assess where to go from here. It is a time for prayer and contemplation. Ethiopians not affected by the war so far need to realize they soon will be.
Wars always start too early and end too late. Having fantasy notions about a coming Ethiopian miracle will only cause more misery. Whatever becomes of Ethiopia is going to happen regardless of what further futile military action is done by Ethiopia.
Captured prisoners of the Amhara militia and Ethiopian National Defense Force on Mount Guna August 16, 2021 where the TDF repeated their historical victory which turned the tide against the Derg.
One in four people in all of Ethiopia are approaching a state of famine and for Tigray that is approaching 500,000. Ethiopian Airlines and mining interests are so disrupted by the war that the economy of Ethiopia is falling fast. Abnormal rain patterns as well as war now occurring in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Oromia, Beningshugal, Somali, and the SNNPNR will surely reduce the major harvest this year. Inflation for the year is approaching 50% and the birr may reach 75 to the US dollar very soon.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has left to meet Isaias in Eritrea and then on to Turkey. It may happen that the Bole Airport may be overtaken by Oromia Liberation Army forces before he makes it back if he really intends to comeback. So far Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has refused to negotiate but instead promising a massive counterattack which has never materialized. The Tigray and their allies have at least offered to negotiate.
At this point it is clear by many military and strategic analysts that Ethiopia cannot mount a significant counterattack to defeat Tigray. Now the Tigray Defense Force is being joined by fighters of liberation armies from Agew, Afar, Somali, Beningshugal, Oromia, and Gambella.
The Tigray Defense Force and their allies are driven by a need to free their people from perceived tyranny and abuse from Amhara elitism. The Amhara elites and their allies claim they want to preserve a chance for a unified Ethiopia that will become a more modern state. Unfortunately they cannot force their point of view upon others. As I and others have stated previously Ethiopian has always been an empire of subjugated nations. The prejudiced view of a united state of Ethiopia quickly fades from view as soon as you leave Addis for the countryside.
Thousands of Ethiopians are displaced now. Dessie Hospital and others in Amhara are overwhelmed with casualties. Most of the fighting equipment of the Ethiopian national defense force has been destroyed or taken by the Tigray Defense Force. Supply lines to both Tigray and Amhara as well as from Djibouti and Kenya are cut off. It may be just hours to days before the Bole Airport is closed. As of now no Ethiopian airline flight is flying domestically. Civilian traffic between major cities is severely restricted. The isolated and tormented people of Western Tigray will soon be freed.
A prayer from His Eminence Archbishop Abba Kewestos Ethiopian Orthodox Patriarchate:
In the name of the Father and of the Son And of the Holy Spirit one God, Amen.
For he that will love life, and see good days, let him refrain his tongue from evil, and his lips that they speak no guile:
Let him eschew evil, and do good; let him seek peace, and ensue it. For the eyes of the Lord are over the righteous, and his ears are open unto their prayers: but the face of the Lord is against them that do evil.
And who is he that will harm you if you will be followers of that which is good?
But if ye suffer for righteousness’ sake, happy are ye: and be not afraid of their terror, neither be troubled;
But sanctify the Lord God in your hearts: and be ready always to an answer to every man that asketh you a reason of the hope that is in you, with meakness and fear;
The Isaias Afwerki Abiy Ahmed partnership has not brought them the results they expected
Unexpected consequences of the Tigray Ethiopian conflict may be making Isaias Afwerki rethink his decision to commit military forces in support of the Ethiopian National Defense Force. The war has brought about changes in the relationship with not only Ethiopia but also the Arab states and Sudan. Rather than securing his position of power, Afwerki may have weakened his position.
Why did Isaias Afwerki, dictator of Eritrea, enter the Tigray Ethiopian conflict? Some say it was to permanently crush his long term adversary the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front. Others say it was to create a new partnership with Ethiopia that would bolster the Eritrean economy. However these explanations overlook the evil genius that has allowed Afwerki to survive since his rise to power in 1991.
It is now known that Eritrea has a debt burden of $3.87 billion with one of the poorest poor capita incomes of $587 annually. Over 45% of its food needs need to be imported for the population of only a little over 3 million. Almost every professional has left the country. There is a minimal health care and university system which combined with one of the most repressive governments, often compared with North Korea, which limits potential for development.
For the past few years Eritrea has sought to gain income from mining interests. It gave 60% interest to Chinese mining companies to develop and export gold, copper, zinc, and more recently has been looking at potash. Loans in excess of $300 million are in default to Arab states with the largest to Qatar . Bloombergreports that in fact Qatar interests have filed suits in American courts to reclaim losses from Eritrean assets in foreign banks. The large Bina Mine had been built and run by the Canadian company, Nevsun. But a lawsuit on behalf of Eritrean workers was allowed in the Canadian courts leading to a settlement which revealed that workers at the mine were basically slaves. The Canadian interest except for a bout 10% was sold to the Chinese company, Zijin, in 2020.
The friendliness of Arab interests to finance the high cost of the Chinese partnership is waning fast. Eritrea had hoped to gain Arab favor and forgiveness by allowing Arab military ports and airbases to support their efforts in the Yemen conflict in which they fighting a proxy war against Iran. However the Arabs definitely see a conflict of interest as they have sided with Egypt and Sudan against Ethiopia in the rapid filling of the Grand Renaissance Dam. No doubt they expected Afwerki to be speaking loudly in support of the Arab united view rather than being mute.
The United States and United Nations have clearly not wanted to alienate the delicate relationship they have with the Arab alliance. Clearly pressure from the United States played a role in the withdrawal of United Arab Emirates forces out of Eritrea and the use of their assets by Afwerki. The United States and Western democracies have been recognizant of Egyptian interests towards the use of the Nile River no doubt seeing Middle East interests of importance.
For Afwerki economic realities which must be taking priority more than any concern about “friendship” with Abiy Ahmed. Afwerki has a keen sense of survival. No doubt he was surprised by the resurgence of the Tigray Defense Force, the growing world condemnation of the Ethiopian “law enforcement action” with its associated atrocities, and finally by its unforeseen consequence of economic chaos in Ethiopia which will not help Eritrea.
Recent transport of gold reserves by high ranking Prosperity Party officials of Ethiopia to Dubai as well the maintenance of secrecy about what is exactly contained in the document of the peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea are raising new questions. Is it likely that Abiy Ahmed is in fact been making payments to Afwerki for his mercenaries to function in Ethiopia? Now that the Ethiopian state is at risk and its resources depleted is Afwerki rethinking his strategy. If the payments or promises of payments have stopped then reasonably one would expect Eritrea to disengage.
Afwerki based upon the promises of Abiy Ahmed never expected that the Tigray Defense Force would resurge to threaten his own survival. Now that there is beginning to be realignment of Sudanese interests with Tigray interests and the fact that the Khartoum is the now with the Sudanese government’s blessing the headquarters of opposition to the Eritrean government. Before the Tigray conflict Afwerki had been wooing Sudanese interests after a long history of distrust. Perhaps this is another reason Afwerki may be deciding he may need to withdrawal to protect his own interests.
The failure of definitive action of the United Nations to decisively act against genocide since World War II predicts the victims of Ethiopian genocide on Tigray can expect no real help. As a result of the genocidal actions of the Ethiopian government under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed towards the Tigray beginning on November 4th, 2020 it is possible that 750,000 people will die, thousands have suffered rape and other humans rights atrocities, and a population of more than 6 million people have been deprived of food security, personal safety, shelter, education, health care, transportation, and all means of communication for 9 months.
Unfortunately this catastrophe is just the latest of many genocides that have occurred in which the United Nations having recognized the crisis and its potential for horrific damage to human life yet accomplished nothing to stop or prevent it.
Critiques of the United Nations (UN) have noted that it has a history of acting “as a slow, reactionary bureaucracy, failed to effectively combat the genocides”. The UN is guided by the principle that military action is always to be avoided and that prolonged negotiation is the only answer. Unfortunately what this means is that usually the aggressor will get to maintain whatever territory or enslaved population already captured and often the oppressed have little chance for return to the previous status quo. This type of response is recognized by aggressors who know they have weeks to months to quickly do whatever immoral and egregious action they wish to take before the UN will even begin to discuss it. Knowing this the government of Ethiopia has taken a strong stand that it will not negotiate with the Tigray believing it faces no real threat of significant sanctions from the international community. For the Tigray it means they have no other course of fighting to overturn the government of Ethiopia.
Even when UN peacekeepers have been deployed they have failed to protect civilians when confronted by threat of attack by aggressors as they are directed basically to never engage as was seen in Bosnia in the 1990s. Former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon acknowledged, for example, that UN troops were pulled out of Rwanda “when they were most needed” and further acknowledged that the innocent at Srebrenica were “abandoned to slaughter” in 1995.
Genocide was recognized officially in 1946 in response to the genocide of 6 million Jews by the German Nazi regime. Polish lawyer, Raphael Lemkin, in his 1944 book Axis Rule in Occupied Europe which lead to the UN Resolution 96(1), 11 December 1946 formally recognizing it. The definition of a genocide was created in this resolution:
“Genocide is a denial of the right of existence of entire human groups, as homicide is the denial of the right to live of individual human beings; such denial of the right of existence shocks the conscience of mankind, results in great losses to humanity in the form of cultural and other contributions represented by these human groups, and is contrary to moral law and the spirit and aims of the United Nations. Many instances of such crimes of genocide have occurred when racial, religious, political and other groups have been destroyed, entirely or in part.”
Yet only three genocides have been officially recognized by the UN Rwanda in 1994, Bosnia (and the 1995 Srebrenica massacre), and Cambodia under the 1975-79 Pol Pot regime.
Human nature is that we will take action to protect another based upon what their relation is to us. Evolutionary biologists talk about actions which preserve those closest to the same gene pool. Although the religions of the Abrahamic covenant (Christianity, Islam, Judaism) preach universal brotherhood mans ability to selfishly not see that the needs of others beyond his immediate circle of family and local community makes us reluctant to get involved. In Christianity this concept noted by Saint Paul was felt to be the greatest impediment to becoming a true Christian.
Dictators like Abiy Ahmed become most dangerous to their own people when they realize they are going to lose power. There is a saying among hunters that a wounded animal becomes dangerous in its last moments.
Abiy Ahmed has transformed from democratic reformer to a dictator reminiscent of Mengistu Hale Mariam, former ruler of the Derg Regime deposed by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front
There have been numerous academic studies by political and social scientists on the mechanisms used by dictators to gain power and how it often backfires. If you compare their findings with the recent history of Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, you see he must have read the textbook on how to be a dictator.
Abiy Ahmed has created strawmen as threats to his supporters well-being namely the TPLF and the foreign influences. Feigning that following his cause is the righteous one, the one true path to Ethiopian autonomy and greatness. That Western democracies intent is to see Ethiopia broken into pieces as a nation while Abiy promises a mighty state rivaling the global superpowers. This call for action against a falsehood facilitated his drawing together a coalition into the Prosperity Party as a test of loyalty.
For dictators to come to power they need kingmakers. They do not have to be a majority of the ruled population but kingmakers have to be activists and committed. By supporting the dictator they will gain influence but at the same time the dictator must mistrust them and find means to control them. They have to remind the kingmakers that they can easily at the dictators wish be removed from the inner circle.
There are different theories about how dictators use power. The “romantic theory” says if dictators obtain absolute power they are just free to do whatever is necessary. Another more pragmatic view is that the key to their power is controlling those who control necessary functions or resources such as the military, press, etc.
In true democracies civilian interest groups can organize through voting to replace leaders. However in a dictatorship one of the problems for dictators is that the very people they put in position to control functions or resources can turn against them. The majority of dictators who are overturned are not replaced by elections but by coups of the power groups they helped create. Although some dictatorships last decades the average dictatorship in modern times has been 3 1/2 years.
It is interesting that Abiy Ahmed has now reached that time where most dictators are dethroned. Although for there are still many buying into his straw men delusions the reality of the weakness that has come to the Ethiopian state rather then the strength he proclaims is beginning to be undeniable. He now finds himself daily reversing his previous declarations such as the Ethiopian and allied forces completely vanquished the Tigray leadership and military to just “flour in the wind“, that Mekelle was just a poor village not capable of any significant military threat, that record prosperity for all Ethiopians was just around the corner, that freedom of the press would become law not a memory, and that political opposition would be given a “seat at the table” not a cell in the jail. Instead he has reigned on all these promises. Like previous dictators now he is in a delusional state wantonly punishing those who are “not with him in supporting the state” encouraging starvation, genocide, even killing of his own armed forces for withdrawing from battle. I pray to God that the many Tigrayans, Oromians, and others in custody through out Ethiopia are not killed out of a crazy man’s spite.
