Tsigereda Girmay a twenty year old ethnic Tigrayan was stabbed to death at Arbaminch University in Southern Ethiopia where she was a college student on January 31, 2022.
The 16th Century English cleric and poet, John Donne, wrote in his famous Meditation 17 that when the Church buries a person it is a chapter out of all of mankind’s existence. That when the bell tolls for one who has passed it is ringing for all of us to hear. In this terrible war between Ethiopia, Tigray, Oromia and others as in previous wars it is all to easy to become numb to death. We need to see the true horror and loss of this young woman and remember it has been multiplied more than hundreds of thousands if not a million times.
The Biblical story of our creation in Genesis reminds us we are all a creation of God and priceless in our worth. John Donne declared that the death of any person should concern us because we must be involved in all mankind. Deranged calls for extermination, starvation, violence against once fellow countrymen are not actions of glory but endeavors in blasphemy against the ways of God espoused by the Christian and Islamic faiths. Government leaders and all good people of faith must come together now to find a just peace for the suffering in Tigray and Northern Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian propaganda machine is saying she was Amhara but this is a lie. She is from Adi Remets. Here is video on Twitter where she is singing she is Tigrinya and TPLF which cannot be taken away.
Tsigereda Girmay singing she is Tigrinya and TPLF and it cannot be taken away
I do not believe that organized government efforts to hide the truth of punitive injury to civilians in Tigray, Myanmar, Syria, and other places in the world to which we do not now pay enough attention will continue to succeed forever. Public health research may be a vital tool to document the injustice of tyrants who deprive dissenters of basic human needs. The beloved American President, Abraham Lincoln, once said in a famous political debate in 1858 one “cannot fool the people: you may fool people for a time; you can fool a part of the people all the time; but you can’t fool all the people all the time”. The emergence of starvation and denial of health care as weapons of war must countered by collection of reliable data so that those responsible can be brought to justice and this practice abandoned as a viable threat.
Today I was very fortunate to play a small part in symposium called The Health Crisis of War: Making War a Health Agenda organized by Dr. Mulugeta Gebregziabher of The Global Center for Health at the Medical College of South Carolina. It is patently clear that public health care research multidisciplinary teams from around the world are studying the effects of conflict on the noncombatant populations immersed in war in Syria, Yemen, Myanmar, and now Ethiopia. Many tools are now available from remote types such as satellite imaging and radar scanning to physiological and biochemical analysis of victims as well as their environments which are without prejudice. No amount of government censorship, press persecution, or political bartering will stop this process from continuing to develop.
Nobel Peace Prize winners, Aby Ahmed and Aung San Suu Kyi, dealings with genocide are following a similar course
Will the world’s attention and will to act fall away from the injustice in Tigray just has happened in Myanmar to the Rohingya? After intentional famine imposed on millions of Tigrayans, unjustified imprisonment of innocents, as well as hundreds of civilian deaths by drone attacks Nobel Prize winner Abiy Ahmed’s leadership in Ethiopia seems to be following in a similar pattern to that of a previous winner, Aung San Suu Kyi. Esteemed leaders who bought time doing little until the world eventually lost interest.
In 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi was hailed as “bringing power to the powerless” winning the Nobel Peace Prize then in 2015 she was elected in the “first democratic election of Myanmar” to lead the country. However in 2017 Myanmar security forces carried out genocidal violence as described by the United Nations displacing several hundred thousand Rohingya within Myanmar and another 740,000 people fleeing to neighboring Bangladesh. At the time Kyi remained silent on issue and was criticized by many of the world’s leaders. Since the early 2000s her status has been shaky in Myanmar as her power has been continually challenged by the military whom she has been adverse to criticize calling them “sweet”. She and the military leaders have imprisoned the press and limited free speech.
Despite intense world-wide attention for a few years Myanmar has made no significant progress in resolving the crisis, or providing accountability and justice for the victims. The court-martial conviction of three military personnel for crimes against Rohingya reflects ongoing government efforts to evade meaningful accountability, scapegoating a few low-level soldiers rather than seriously investigating the military leadership who directed and oversaw the atrocity crimes. Today almost one million Rohingya refugees live in the world’s largest refugee camps in Bangledesh’s Cox Bazar Region. Meanwhile Rohingya remain without rights of citizenship such as voting, owning a business, or even to work in Myanmar.
A brief inquiry was officially made by the United Nations to see how the UN could have better responded to the crisis but placed no blame. The International Criminal Court found that changes in election procedures, law enforcement, and civil rights were needed but nothing substantial has happened.
The Oromo Liberation Army gave 5 conditions for peace talks
Any future of Ethiopia which includes the Oromo nation must give them their fair say in governance. The five conditions demanded by the Oromo Liberation Army for peace talks seem reasonable. News about Ethiopian conflict and dissension by formal press organizations as well as interested parties on social media mostly involves discussions of Tigray and the Ethiopian government. Yet the largest group making up 35% of Ethiopia’s population and arguably the most oppressed group in Ethiopian history, the Oromos, receive much less international attention. They deserve more. Although I know the Tigray region and her people much better over the ten years I have been in Ethiopia I have had the chance to meet many Oromia who shared their history and feelings with me. Any future of Ethiopia which includes the Oromo nation must give them their fair say in governance which no previous government has ever done. The five conditions are:
1.Reaching a negotiated cessation of hostilities across the country;
2.Dealing with Eritrean influence and withdrawing its forces from Ethiopia;
3.Releasing all political prisoners across the country;
4.Opening unimpeded humanitarian corridors wherever it’s needed;
5.Repealing the proclamation that designates OLA and TPLF as terrorist organizations;
6.An all-inclusive process that leads to the establishment of an independent commission acceptable to all stakeholders.
In the 19th and 20th centuries, the Amharic monarchy ruling the Ethiopian empire saw the Oromos as a lesser race to be dominated. Their language and culture was Cushitic in origin versus the Amhara and Tigray of the Abyssinian regions which were Semitic. Amharic academics promulgated the false hood that the Oromo people were recent immigrants to the Ethiopian territory. Today Oromo academics have shown that their existence in Ethiopia goes back to the first millennium. The concept of an Amharic manifest destiny and the belief by many clergy in the Ethiopian Orthodox Church of this inferiority allowed the development of slavery of the Cushitic peoples of the expanding Ethiopian empire into what is now Oromia and the The Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region. These lands had good rainfall as well as fertile valleys and flatlands which produced agricultural bounties. Many Amhara settled into the Oromo lands and the local rulers where deposed. Even still brave Oromo cavalry bravely defended Ethiopian sovereignty at the battle of Adwa against the Italians. While many saw great hope that a Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, who has Oromia ancestry by his father would elevate the status of the Oromo region this has been negated with drone attacks killing countless civilians and extrajudicial killing of political prisoners.
In the midst of potential peace negotiations a growing message of hate continues unabated from Abiy Ahmed’s powerbase
There seems to be growing dissension in the Ethiopian political factions which pressed for the savage military aggression against Tigray over a year ago. While some communication about peace negotiation is going on between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray leadership many of those in Abiy Ahmed’s powerbase are continuing messages of hate and the need to not only vanquish but wipeout the Tigray people. Military leaders, diaspora internet pro-Ahmara “news”, and clerics have not abated their hate.
While Ethiopia once used to pride itself as being one of the most religious nations in the world there is no doubt that the the barbarism seen by forces of the Ethiopian government and allies are not consistent with Christian or Muslim teachings. For Ethiopian Christians they seem to forget that scripture in both the Old and New Testament warn that hate increases man’s distance from the God who made all humans and our salvation. God loves all sinners as much as he loves us. Simply explained in 1 John 4:20 (NIV) “Whoever claims to love God yet hates a brother or sister is a liar. For whoever does not love their brother and sister, whom they have seen, cannot love God, whom they have not seen.”
This week UN reports over 400,000 are at the famine stage and 2 million are at the brink.
When many people hear about starvation they assume that intervention that is done when many start to die will result in complete reversal of ill health. Unfortunately the reality is that moderately severe starvation for just a few months can lead to permanent disability and premature death even once proper nutrition has been re-established. The World Food Program and other agencies announcement that 40% of Tigrayans are suffering severe hunger means that even for those that have not yet died they may already have contracted a permanent condition. This is especially so for children.
Thus the urgency of a rapid and comprehensive response to the growing Tigray famine is absolute. Severe decline in brain function, child growth stunting, diabetes, increased birth maternal and child mortality, birth defects, and lowered resistance to infectious diseases such as tuberculosis (endemic in Ethiopia) have been well recognized since World War II in civilian populations deprived in war. Children who survived then in adulthood showed increased levels of diabetes and heart disease leading to premature death.
One page of the leaked plan for ending the conflict with Tigray. The full document is here.
The release of a leaked document of Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party Meeting at Hawassa, December 2021, entitled, The journey towards prosperity through permanent victory: War aftermath challenges and redress, after victory over Tigray PLF reveals that the Ethiopia government is well aware that continuing the armed conflict with the Tigray Defense Forces will likely lead to economic ruin for Ethiopia. The goal of continuing the conflict in the short term was to weaken the spirit of the Tigray so that Ethiopia could bargain from a strong position. Ethiopia believed the United States interest in the conflict related to wanting to remove Isaias Afwerki as head of Eritrea. Discussion was being held about limiting the power of the Amhara militia group, FANO.
The growing weakness and worsening forecast of the Ethiopian economy for the next year was highlighted in a recent forecast. The highly regarded Fitch Country Risk and Industry Research group published an economic forecast for Ethiopia this week that sees continued worsening deficit in the Ethiopian government fiscal accounts for at least the next year. While the Ethiopian government has boasted almost $1.1 billion in revenue from coffee exports of 280,000 tons this year a close look by Fitch determined that Ethiopian coffee production would increase by only 0.3% in the near future. At the same time world wide prices for coffee are expected to fall by 6.3. Coffee exports make up about 32% of the total exports from Ethiopia.
The removal of Ethiopia for the foreseeable future from the African Growth and Opportunity Act will see the trade deficit from necessary imports to Ethiopia increase from $9.3 to $10 billion yearly. The potential for future improvement in Ethiopian economy is now heavily dependent on the peaceful resolution of conflicts within Ethiopia involving the Tigray and Oromo This would weigh heavily on investor sentiment and foreign capital inflows, weakening the country’s balance-of-payment position.
Similarly, the World Bank continues to see challenges in Ethiopia’s development due to ongoing conflict. Ethiopia has one of the lowest Human Development Indexes in the world at 0.38 which reflects the economic potential of the average citizen. The diversion of educational funds, nutritional support, and health funding by the Abiy Ahmed lead Prosperity Party to buying weapons (reports are that Ethiopia wants to quadruple military spending) and increasing deficits is leading to an uneducated and unhealthly workforce which will be unable to develop the country.
Addis Standard reports Generals Bacha and Hassen are to be appointed to diplomatic posts
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s appointment of Ethiopian National Defense Force senior leaders, General Bacha Debele and General Hassen Ibrahim, along with a whole new slate of foreign diplomats might seem strange but there is hidden rationale behind this action. One very credible theory behind this action has nothing to do with these appointees diplomatic skills but rather is likely to be an attempt to shield them from international or domestic prosecution for war crimes carried out under their leadership.
Remember that in August 2021 the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission had completed a report that human rights violations had been committed in Ethiopian Tigray conflict ostensibly by all parties. This report was criticized for not including all the potential war crimes especially the massacre of church goers in Axum. The former Ethiopian Minister of Women, Youth, and Children Filsan Abdi who went to Mekelle in July 2021 has stated repeatedly that she found credible evidence for widespread violation of women from ENDF and Eritrean forces which were downplayed by Abiy Ahmed leading to her resignation. In December 2021 after examining what evidence was available the UN Human Rights Commission voted to sponsor an international investigation.
There is good legal precedent that personal immunity (immunity ratione personae) and functional immunity relating to the office held (immunity ratione materiae) given to diplomats may offer protection from international prosecution. Legal scholars who study the history of prosecution of war crimes note that there is a “culture of impunity which contributes to a climate in which human rights violations persist and are not deterred”. Thus mechanisms of enforcement are often not available because of these loopholes in prosecution.
Mesfin Tegenu, Chairman of the American Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee (photo from Twitter)
Mesfin Tegenu, chairman of the American Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee is reported by AP News to say that Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is wanting to discuss peace with Tigray which will preserve the Ethiopian state. This has not been confirmed by Tigray sources, the United States State Department, or even the Ethiopian government.
I previously noted that Ethiopia is in a classic Catch-22. This occurs in the face of the Tigray Defense Force gains in reclaiming Western Tigray as well as holding off attacks by Amhara militia, Afar forces, and the Eritrean military. Meanwhile the Ethiopian economy continues a downward spiral to complete ruin with rising food prices and a debt service that is unpayable for loans in excess of $60 billion. Also the growing Oromo forces against Abiy Ahmed now control half of the Oromo state and nothing has been heard from them about this new development.
The Brown Political Review expresses a view that Abiy Ahmed’s continued despotism blocks the emergence of peace and prosperity in Ethiopia. Instead real national dialogue is the only way to economic viability
Ethiopia is in a Catch-22 situation. There is no clear foreseeable victory for Abiy Ahmed which involves complete surrender of the OLF or TDF. Come to peace terms with the Tigray National State and the Oromos to salvage the economy or continue a war which has no visible end in sight and will only lead to further economic decay for Ethiopia in order to satisfy Amhara centered nationalists (the main backers of Abiy Ahmed) who want Tigray and Oromo rebellions completely obliterated.
Although Ethiopia’s Central Statistical Agency has been trying to hide failing economic reports since August 2020 the dismal economic outlook can no longer be hidden. Although some economic analysts had predicted a robust economic recovery earlier in the year based upon two factors:
That the Ethiopian forces would come to stop significant fighting from Tigray and Oromo factions
That cessation of the fighting would improve foreign investors confidence in Ethiopia without sanctions
Currently the Tigray Defense Force is making slow but steady progress into Western Tigray and creating a buffer zone against invasion in the northwestern Afar. Attempts at reinvasion by Eritrean armed forces have been repelled. Meanwhile almost half of the Northern Oromo region has been taken by the Oromo Liberation Front who now openly recruit and train thousands more each week. There is no clear foreseeable victory for Abiy Ahmed which involves complete surrender of the OLF or TDF.
In December 2021 food prices went up 41.6% the highest in decade while the actual value of the birr against the dollar has essentially reached 50 to the dollar and continues to fall. The Ethiopian government has played games with statistics for economic growth using the falling birr to create false gains which are really losses in terms of international currency value in economic growth (-2%), gross domestic product, and per capita income. By the end of 2022 Ethiopian government debt will exceed $60 billion which has an unsustainable debt service unless severe austerity measures occur.
Other analysts have noted that while the previous regime of Meles Zenawi leadership of the Ethiopia Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front was able to achieve high economic achievement under authoritarian rule this will not be the case for Abiy Ahmed’s prosperity party. Centralizing decision making to Amhara oligarchs, severely suppressing human rights and free press, and not sharing real dialogue with the Tigray and Oromo parties will never bring the “market liberalization” needed to put Ethiopia back on a growth path.
President Biden made clear that there will be no re-instatement of the AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act Treaty) until the requirements for human rights guarantees stipulated in the treaty are restored. Professor Jon Abbink is a professor of Politics and Governance at Leiden University, a proclaimed Abiy Ahmed government supporter, and has stated that AGOA termination delisting will cost the loss of “200,000 Ethiopian jobs directly and in the textile and apparel sectors (ca. 80% women) and indirectly in extra 700 to 800,000 additional supportive jobs (in transport, catering, distribution)”. It will dent the emerging young Ethiopian industrialization policy, in which the country showed great promise. Although The (international) firms in the new Ethiopian industrial parks will partly survive by seeking new markets but this will be enough to sustain them.
