Month: November 2021

Taking Mille can save lives for the Tigray while holding Mille allows more killing for Ethiopia

The government of Ethiopia has blocked all food and medical aid to Tigray

Why Ethiopia and Eritrea want to hold Mille and why TDF (Tigray Defense Force) and the OLA (Oromo Liberation Army) wants to gain control of it tells the truth about the real motivations for the ongoing conflict. In the absence of any international attempt to save the millions of Tigrayans from starvation, death from lack of health care, imprisonment for ethnicity, and even just the simple right to make a living the TDF and OLA have no choice but to seize control of the roads connecting ultimately to the seaport of Djibouti. This will allow a high flow of food, medicines, medical supplies, and fuel to Tigray and the Oromo regions. Meanwhile the Ethiopian Eritrean forces want to continue to starve, deprive, imprison, and kill Tigrayans as Abiy Ahmed as well as his supporters put it into an oblivion of dust as if they never existed.

Despite the fact that the Bible and Quran outlaw the use of starvation as a weapons the clerico-fascists of Abiy Ahmed persistent and loudening claims that God has specifically given him the right to use any means necessary to exterminate the Tigray people and subjugate the Oromo similarly continue unabated.  Numerous persons and entities supporting Abiy Ahmed claim to be for an all inclusive Ethiopian identity that would not exclude Tigrayans with the only intent to carry out a law enforcement action against the leaders of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front and the Oromo. Yet they keep persistently silent when asked why deprive the innocents of food, medicine, and personhood. Why destroy hospitals, schools and factories? 

A year without healthcare has cost over 200,000 lives in Tigray

Once a highly specialized tertiary hospital Ayder has now been rendered a place where the sick and their families wait for death

A year has passed since the onset of the Ethiopian and Eritrean war on Tigray including its subtotal blockade beginning even before November 2021 and the complete closing of all but a trickle of food aid since July 2021.

In August 2021 I wrote the concept of the crude death rate which relates to expected deaths per thousand population in Tigray. We knew that in 1950 for Ethiopia as a whole which was without any significant medical care the crude death rate was 32 per 1000 population. By 1971 it had fallen to 21.1 and then by 2020 before the war was only 6.4 per 1000. 

Tigray before the war was leading not only Ethiopia but much of Africa in increasing percentages of medically attended births, lowering maternal and child deaths, providing tertiary care for adults and children including surgical specialty services for not only Tigray but Afar, upper Amhara, and even Eritrea.  We served a total catchment area of over 10 million population.  Mekelle University’s Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital where I was Head of Neurosurgery working closely with the Tigray Regional Health Bureau was a model of developing health care for Africa.

Now 80% of hospitals and clinics in Tigray are basically nonfunctional because of intentional destruction and ransacking by Amhara militia, Ethiopian National Defense Forces, and Eritrean forces.  Medical equipment not wrecked was taken to Eritrea. Many doctors, nurses, and other health care workers such as health extension workers and health officers are displaced, have been abused or even killed. Although Ayder Hospital through a nonviolent civil action of the cities residents avoided gross destruction it has received no supplies in over a year. All health care workers have not been paid for essentially a year yet many remain trying to help without resources.

Now that a year has gone by with the medical resources of Tigray regressed to the standards of 1950 there is absolutely no doubt that the prediction that out of  7, 070,260 population of Tigray measured in the last census the Ethiopian blockade has brought about at least 226,248.32 deaths since the onset of the war in Tigray. This of course does not include deaths from intentional civilian mass genocide and execution.

To replenish the supplies, replace the lost and broken equipment, re-station the workforce, and re-establish the working society of transportation as well communication to stop this increasing death spiral will take months at best. It will take more than sending a few aid trucks. The absolute security of the Tigray Nation State functioning in an environment of growth  and freedom not destruction is the only way of recovery.

Why Eritrean forces have not left Ethiopia?

Ethiopia’s story about Eritrean troop involvement changes every day. Currently they say they have left but if they were there it would be reasonable to assist their allies in Ethiopia claims Ethiopian MFA.

Why has Eritrea not left Ethiopia? No one believes the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs notice this week stating this lie. Multiple sources report that Isaias Afwerki is controlling Ethiopian intelligence services as well placing commanders with Amhara militia and the Ethiopian National Defense Force. Why has Afwerki not left the basically defeated Ethiopian state?

Going back to 1991 it has been well documented that Afwerki wanted to unite Eritrea and Ethiopia into a confederation. This would give him access to the Ethiopian economy, a more stable currency, hosting the African Union, and legitimacy on the world scene.  Being the second worst nation in terms of human rights violations and lack of any election since he came to power would be placed aside by a new confederation with the naïve Abiy Ahmed.

Although political integration under the larger Ethiopian state had been discussed since 1952 the rise to power of Afwerki made it more of an realizable idea. His stalemate with the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front in the 1990s over the Eritrea Tigray border and subsequent hostility that remained rendered this idea mute until the Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister of Ethiopia causing the TPLF to recede from national power.

Here was the perfect situation. The master schemer manipulated the young inexperienced Abiy Ahmed into a secret pact ostensibly as far as the world was concerned creating peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea but in reality a war plan to dominate Tigray once and for all. This would pave the way for Isaias Afwerki to become the de facto leader of the new Ethiopia Eritrean state.

Even though the military confrontation with Tigray has failed there is still hope that international heavy weights and the United Nations concerned with severe famine, refugees potentially streaming to Europe, and a failed Ethiopian state leading to chaos in the Horn of Africa will push hard for some immediate ceasefire. With this ceasefire a promise of food and medical aid will be allowed into Tigray but Tigray will have to withdraw into its borders. Both Esaias and Abiy Ahmed are counting on the international call to be strong to end any further fighting thus preventing capture of Addis Ababa or Asmara.

No doubt this pause will give Isaias time to strengthen his armed forces and those of Ethiopia as well with a plan to reinvade Tigray. Of course the leaders of the Tigray National State realize this is exactly what will happen. They know Ethiopia will only let a trickle of aid come in while complaining all the while that everyone bringing aid is really plotting to help the Tigray. Many more months will go by until Ethiopia and Eritrea can once again attack in force. This is why the Tigray Defense Force and the Oromo Liberation Army must continue to march on.

Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki continuous hatred toward Christians

Still from Amnesty International’s Crisis Evidence Lab geolocated a video showing people carrying a dead man on a stretcher in Da’Ero Ela Plaza (14.129918, 38.717113), towards Arba’etu Ensessa church.

Esaias Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed despite his claim of Christianity seemed joined together in their hatred for Christians during the Ethiopia Tigray conflict.

About 40,000 Irob (sometimes spelled Erob) people live on the northern Tigray Eritrean border. They speak a different language Saho then the Tigray and high percentage of them are Roman Catholics due in part to schools and support services placed in the community by the Catholic Church since the 19th century. Traditionally they have been allies with the Tigray in opposing Eritrea and the Derg. 

Many Irob who have lived in the areas recognized as Eritrean since Eritrean independence have suffered extrajudicial killings, imprisonment, displacement, and general deprivation for years. It was not unusual to hear that Eritrean authorities would come to dismantle Irob homes to use the lumbar for government projects. Authorities blocked church functions, funerals, and public gatherings to discuss local issues which were customary to Irob cultural tradition.

Since the Ethiopia Eritrean invasion of Tigray the situation only got worse. Investigation by the European Center for Law & Justice as well as the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights reports numerous murders of priests, Catholic lay, destruction of worship facilities, and also of social supportive buildings for the Irob. Many families report many if not all the men in their family were executed by Eritrean forces. This barbarism against is not only for Catholics but also Tigray Orthodox believers where more than 80 priests and lay worshipers were murdered in Axum .

During the invasion of Mekelle, I witnessed the artillery barrage destroying much of the building housing Catholic Charities. Eritrean forces then came and removed all files and communication equipment. While meeting with lay representatives of the church to discuss how we could help offer medical help, I was accosted by Eritrean soldiers and my cell phone erased by them.

Esaias Afwerki’s prosecution of Christians in Eritrea is rated by Open Doors as the 6th worst in world. He has closed Catholic schools and hospitals throwing sick patients into the street. Even though Abiy Ahmed claims to be a Christian and member of the Mulu Wongel (Full Gospel Believers Church) in Addis Ababa his partner in the war, Esaias has expelled, tortured, and killed many members of this same church in Eritrea.

Vatican News reports that Ethiopian authorities have raided a center in Addis Ababa arresting many priests, Salesian missionaries, volunteers, and employees. Many of the Salesians have lived in Addis since 1975 with strong pacifist sentiments.

The World Council of Churches representing 50 million Christians from 349 churches in 110 countries sent letters to both Abiy Ahmed and Ethiopian Christian churches in February 2021 condemning violence, lamenting displacement, and widespread hunger in Tigray.

Rising prices and lack of medical supplies now affecting all of Ethiopia

The Djibouti to Addis railroad was plagued with problems before the war has been shut down by its proximity to fighting, lack of exports, and low electricity flow

Those that say life is going on as “usual” in the parts of Ethiopia not directly involved in combat are denying reality. As of October 21, 2021 the inflation rate was 34 to 35% which is up by two thirds what the rate was before the Ethiopia Tigray conflict began. Although the Ethiopian government is no longer publicly announcing the Consumer Price Index it has nearly doubled at 243 points since the onset of war as well. 

Meanwhile in discussions with various sources about the condition of medical supplies in Ethiopia in regions even far remote the report is that supplies of medical consumables, medications, and others are back logged at best due to lack of available funding and constraints at supply lines to Djibouti. Apparently private truckers do not want to take the risk of going near or through a war zone. From everything to food, clothing, medicines, and electronics where there is already a shortage worldwide of supply Ethiopia is faring far worse. Pretending life is normal will not help.

Abiy Ahmed the spoiled child who mislead the international community

The noted publication Ethiopia Insight stated Abiy Ahmed preaches unity but is a “solo flyer” and his opinion is the only one that counts

Why is the international diplomatic community treating Ethiopia like the spoiled child ? Their  fatal flaw is not coming to terms with the truth that Abiy Ahmed is not and never will be the leader they imagined.  History always has told us that playing into the fantasies and manipulation of such a person never ends well. As an example of how dangerous dallying with such a leader one only has to look at the failed view British Prime Minister, Nivel Chamberlain, had of Adolf Hitler which served only to bolster Nazi Germany’s ultimate attempt at European domination.

Since the onset of the Ethiopian Tigray conflict the Ethiopian leadership including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been incessantly petulant towards the Western democracies whose trade and aid programs have played a significant role in building a successful economy. These same countries who were often critical of the previous Tigray Peoples Liberation Front and who clearly harbor great reservations about a return to power of this group continue to go out of their way to forestall an invasion of Addis Ababa by the Tigray Oromo alliance basically demanding Abiy Ahmed not be forcefully removed.

Undoubtedly many in the international community including some American diplomats cannot accept that they were so wrong about Abiy Ahmed, that somewhere inside him there are redeemable qualities that can still be coaxed out to yield a real unified Ethiopian democracy with a strong central government. Abiy Ahmed made mistakes they belief but it was not his fault they hold with fervor in midst of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Members of the United Nations and Western democracies ask the world to forget and put no importance to the following actions of Abiy Ahmed and his followers. They should think hard if they really wish to continue to:

  1. Ignore the fact that he is voluntarily starving a population of over 7 million people as a part of a targeted law enforcement operation. Every minute the elderly, mothers, the sick, and young children are dying of starvation.
  2. Ignore the fact that he has destroyed and cut off all supplies to more than 80% of medical facilities in Tigray such that the crude death rate from treatable conditions has likely increased five fold.
  3. Ignore the fact that thousands of women have been violated and thousands of male children and babies killed by specific orders to Eritrean and Ethiopian forces.
  4. Ignore the fact 80,000 law abiding Tigrayan citizens have lost their businesses and bank accounts without any due process.
  5. Ignore the fact that now more 50,000 Tigrayans are imprisoned without right of trial.
  6. Ignore the fact that he broke treaties signed by Ethiopia regarding the functioning with the United Nations and African Union as well as the United States.
  7. Ignore the fact that he falsely accuses Western democracies of using established nonaligned charities as tools for regime change.
  8. Ignore the fact that at one moment Ethiopian leaderships asks for hands off to deal with “criminals” whom they claim to have defeated and the next demands salvation from an enemy who can only win Ethiopia false claims because they are being helped by Western powers who like the TPLF.
  9. Ignore the fact the the Eritrean peace pact was really a war pact with one of the most egregious tyrants in history making him a partner in genocide.

Ignoring the truth of who Abiy Ahmed and his genocidal followers are will surely just bring more suffering and death.

Ethiopia lies about aid to rebuild and relieve human suffering during occupation of Tigray

Taye Atske Selassie, Ethiopian representative to the UN lies about Ethiopia’s aid efforts to Tigray

The biggest Ethiopian lie is that Ethiopia itself sent relief to Tigray during its occupation from November 2020 to July 2021. The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, his Foreign Press Secretary and the Ethiopia Representative to the United Nations have continually claimed that during the early phases of Ethiopian and Tigray war up through the claimed unilateral ceasefire  Ethiopia intended to allow planting and Ethiopia spent millions in birr in reconstruction, food, and medical aid to Tigray.  The truth is however, what aid got in that was not blocked on way by Ethiopia was supplied by international aid agencies not Ethiopia. Soon after the Tigray resurgence that pushed Ethiopian and Eritrean forces out of most of Tigray the the strict blockade of all aid was started by July 2021.

From the onset of the Ethiopian Tigray conflict to early January 2021 I was present at Mekelle University. During that time and continuing after we received no food supplies, no medical supplies, no fuel for generators or civilian needs, and all commercial traffic was blocked. International aid agencies sent containers through Djibouti which remained at the port not allowed to pass. The heads of the Tigray Interim Administration admitted that the Federal government intended to block planting and cut off supplies to Tigray to force their capitulation.

Shipments of medical supplies including consumables, medications, and other things were hijacked by  Amhara militia, Ethiopia federal forces, and others before they reached Tigray.

I witnessed attempts at communication with the local Tigray Interim Administration, local military commanders, and even satellite calls to Ministers of Health and Education in Addis Ababa. The conversation was always that upper level Ministry officials accountable to the Prime Minister were reviewing the situation or sometimes just frankly saying it is not a “priority”. Several members of the Tigray Interim Administration during the Ethiopian occupation have at their own personal risks now admitted that the intent of the Ethiopian government was to starve, destroy, and kill Tigrayans so as described by Abiy Ahmed all that was left was “a fine dust that would blow away in the wind”.

Why is the world not holding Isaias Afwerki accountable for the Ethiopian crisis?

Passive support even admiration of the cruel tyrant Isaias Afwerki does not help the cause of African development

When will Africa learn that protecting evil dictatorships like Eritrea will always be an impediment to building a better and stronger Africa? Passing the one year mark of the human caused catastrophe of the Ethiopian war what most strikes me is the lack of discussion of the role Eritrea has played. 

The 1995 movie, The Usual Suspects, has a quote that has become iconic  “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist “. This most aptly describes the tyrant of Eritrea. While we hear constant commentary about Ethiopia and Tigray we hear next to nothing on how the most notorious master manipulator Esaias Afwerki masterminded not only what is going in Ethiopia but adding to chaos in Sudan.

Even though Eritrea competes with North Korea as to who is most egregious violator of human rights among the countries of the world it shamefully was elected to the United Nations Human Rights Council mostly by endorsement of other African nations. The faulty notion that protecting African sovereignty and prominence in international affairs means accepting cruel and vicious leadership is allowable contributes significantly to much of Africa’s human rights struggles.  The situation is so bad in Eritrea that a special envoy to follow it was created by the UN.  Mohamed Abdelsalam Babiker, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea, presenting his oral update, said this year he had seen no concrete evidence of progress or actual improvement in the human rights situation in Eritrea. 

If one wants to be generous to Abiy Ahmed that initially he had better intentions toward building Ethiopia this assumption can only be defended by pointing the finger to his naivete to the mal-intentions of the diaspora clerico-fascists and Isaias Afwerki. Yet these two entities remain obscured  in the discussions of how this cataclysm developed. 

Breaking news of accelerated Tigray detentions is just the tip of the iceberg

The Awash Arba camp is just one of three camps identified in Globe and Mail’s report of recent Tigrayan detentions

The detention and imprisonment of ethnic Tigray is not a just a recent phenomenon but has gone on for most of the duration of current Ethiopian Tigray conflict. The soaring number of Tigrayan(Tegaru) detentions in Addis Ababa in recent months reported by the Globe and Mail in detention camps in Afar and outside Addis Ababa is just the tip of the iceberg.  Much more has been going on for the past year.

After the occupation of Tigray by Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara militias completed by the end of November 2020 already thousands were forced off their farming homes and many were placed in concentration camps in Western Tigray.  Numerous video clips taken by these occupying forces taken as trophies of their orders from superiors to rape, destroy, and kill Irob and Tigray especially in the Western region and border have been documented. In Northwestern Tigray we know that multiple concentration camps were occupied by hundreds with daily rape and execution.

As the Abiy Ahmed government began to permanently shut down universities in Tigray it offered many of the Tigray a false chance to go to Addis Ababa and transfer to institutions there. This was a lie for many who instead found themselves not meeting relatives in Addis but ending up in prison camps in the Southern Regions and Afar. Many photographs have emerged falsely claiming them as captured Tigray fighters. Like those reported in Globe and Mail some of them have managed to pay thousands of birr to leave the camps.

Even in Addis, Tigrayan faculty members at universities and employees in government offices were offered special trips to discuss “peace proposals”. They were to show up for bus pick up which turned out to be to detention camps. Many physicians became wary and avoided this ploy. Unfortunately now Addis Ababa police have began just showing up at these same facilities over the past two weeks and taking custody with no discussion allowed. 

We know that thousands of Tigrayan businessman had their businesses closed down, assests confiscated, and many also imprisoned. Official government reports that there may be in excess of 80,000 individuals affected by this process.

Although these activities have been ongoing the past year the progressive defeats of the Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have accelerated this human rights violations exponentially. Some estimates reach as high as 50,000 or more currently detained. Some analysts ponder whether Abiy Ahmed wants to use them as abargaining chip.

Abiy Ahmed’s deteriorating status with Ethiopian performing artists

Singer Tariku Ganiski calls for youth not to go to war but for elders to make peace at Addis Ababa rally. See the Amharic speech he made here.

Popular Ethiopian singer, Tariku Gankisi, who is known for promoting Ethiopian unity in his works was invited to perform at a Addis Ababa rally to support the Federal governments fight against the Tigray and their allies but it did not go as organizers had planned. Instead Tariku told the crowd “Let no youth go to the front lines to fight, let the elders go holding the fresh grass and ask for reconciliation,” before his microphone was switched off by party unknown.

President John F. Kennedy said at the Alliance for Progress in 1962 that “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable”. He recognized that dictators oppression of nonviolent protest and dissent can ultimately inflame the cause for war.

In 2018 Abiy Ahmed praised the art community of Ethiopia saying “art has indispensable role in nourishing our cultural life, love, forgiveness and togetherness. The role of the artist is to be a guardian of truth and justice and creatively reveal the richness of our national life”.  However as his ever attempt to tighten controls over everything in Ethiopian life including culture has increased his appreciation for performing artists seems to have changed as have theirs towards him.

On June 29, 2020 the popular Oromo singer, Hachalu Hundessa, was murdered most likely by supporters of Abiy Ahmed. In his quest to consolidate power over the Oromo population the Ethiopian Prime Minister had already imprisoned over 7000 Oromia and overseen the extrajudicial killing of over almost 300 since coming to power in 2018. This singer’s style and message appealed to multiple generations in ballads discussing the subjugation of the Oromo people historically and more recently the expansion of the nation’s capital, Addis Ababa generally considered Amhara territory, into the Oromo national state.  Although Abiy Ahmed was initially seen as a champion of these causes he eventually dropped them preferring his Ahmara identity.