If Tigray is defeated will Eritrea claim Western Tigray?

Who was the real winner of the Isaias Afwerik Abiy Ahmed “agreement”?

One has to ask why would Esaias Afwerki give back Western Tigray to Amhara if the TDF is defeated? Now that his armed forces have taken over Western Tigray while Amhara militia and ENDF forces are moving closer to Gondar in case of possible attack what is stop Isaias from annexing Western Tigray?  Could the Dictator of Eritrea now decide to claim Western Tigray for his own? Described as having a split personality with bout of charisma, no doubt to which Abiy Ahmed succumbed, but also mixed with a brutal and cruel tendency to have no limits in attaining power.  Some analysts have labeled him as being “addicted” to creating havoc.

Amhara and Ethiopian National Defense Forces  have been increasingly replaced by Eritrean troops in Humera and Western Tigray.  The cloud cover which obscured much of the views of the ground in Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea are starting to clear some allowing the viewer of satellite images to get a better view of happenings on the ground as the rainy season comes to an end. We can see that some planting is being done in Western Tigray that is new. Yet we know that Tigrayan farmers have been blocked from planting and many are killed.  Stories are beginning to come out that some “settlers” from Eritrea have been seen in the area of Humera. Hundreds of trucks are coming into Humera and the surrounding area daily caring more then just military personal. 

A well written analysis of the Esaias Afwerki -Abiy Ahmed relationship written in March 2020 when the Tigray Ethiopia war looked all wrapped up had some interesting insights into these allies of convenience. Esaias has always wanted to be the predominate ruler of the Horn of Africa. The young and inexperienced Abiy Ahmed in his naivete offered him the chance of a lifetime to get rid of his archenemy the TPLF and too to dominate a new Ethiopian empire that he has dreamed about since his days as a rebel fighter against the Derg. In statement made on his own Eritrea news channel Esaias has previously state he would never sit by and watch Ethiopian affairs develop without his input again. Greater Ethiopia should be his to rule and now destiny may have finally arrived. 

Unique Tigray facial ritual scar may mark them for killing by Eritrean and Amhara militia

Recovery of Tigrayan genocide victims downriver from Humera shows how they were likely targeted by cultural markings and suffered horrible murder.

Young Tigrayan woman with the “eleven” scarification on the temples

Over the past week increasing numbers of dead bodies have been found floating in the Tekeze river which borders between Western Tigray and Sudan. At least 40 bodies have been recovered in area downriver from the Tigray city of Humera which is under control of Eritrean and Amhara militia. It is the rainy season there and the current is quite swift making recovery difficult for local fisherman so only a few bodies have been able to be collected which have been buried by the local Sudanese.

Sudanese fisherman preparing a Tigrayan victim of genocide from Humera found in the Tekeze river

According to reports by AP and others many have been found to be bound with hands behind their back and suffered burns before death. Tewodros Tefera, a Tigrayan general surgeon refugee who is helping Tigrayan refugees in Sudan and Sudan doctors examined the bodies and recognized the characteristic Tigray facial marking on some of the bodies and identified another with a tattoo in the Tigrinya language. Some of the bodies have suffered gun shot and axe wounds.

For centuries at least the Tigrayans often called the Tegaru have practiced ritual face marking. This is not unusual in Africa although the specific way the Tegaru do it is unique. In early childhood two parallel small incisions are made lateral to the eyebrow. Locally it is called the “eleven”. Sometimes this was done at the time a child showed febrile illness. There is a cultural belief that this mark protects health. Unfortunately this mark is known to those committing genocide in Tigray such that those bearing it become the targets of abuse or murder. In previous times the Derg regime and bands of Amhara militia have gone on hunting parties to kill those with these facial scars. These markings leave no doubt that it is Tigrayans who are being killed.