My personal reflections on NYT article on Abiy Ahmed’s planned war

Today’s NYT article on how the Ethiopia Tigray war really started when Abiy Ahmed and Isaias hatched their plan months before November 2020

Having lived and worked at Mekelle University since 2015 and in Ethiopia since 2012 I am some reflections on the New York Times article today which stated the war began before the Northern Command action by the Tigray Defense Force and what may lay ahead.

In the year prior to November 2020 the relations between Mekelle University and the Federal Ministries of Science and Higher Education as well as Health were deteriorating. Instead of the usual budget increases of about 13% there were discussions that Mekelle University had always gotten “too much” and that it was going to be downscaled even though what the University received was an appropriate amount for the population it served the same as the others. University Department heads and administers were suddenly no longer invited to be part of major discussions at the Federal level.

Several times Federal police showed up in Mekelle unannounced in violation of the Ethiopian constitution leading to tense moments on the streets in Mekelle and at the airport. Security was removed from leading Tigray military officers and Tigray People Liberation Front party leaders leading to the assassination of two generals in Addis Ababa.  We all had the feeling that things were going to get violent eventually even if we prayed they would not.

Following the occupation of Mekelle, the Ethiopian Federal government never lived up to its promise to restore or rebuild society when the TDF looked all but defeated. The University was in effect deconstructed and unbudgeted for education and Ayder Hospital was abandoned by the Federal government as if it did not exist. The Tigray were less than human, they did not deserve healthcare, education, protection, or even food said the self-righteous religious cleric0-fascists directing the mob supporters of the Prosperity Party.

I still have flashblacks about the many hundreds of civilian patients we saw at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital especially as the Eritrean and Ethiopian forces where coming south from Adigrat through Wucro. Mutilated babies and mothers. Grotesque injuries to women. Many civilians shot in the back trying to flee combat areas. There was an intentional genocide to not just control Tigray but to wipe them out. I am convinced that eventually outside reviews will show the scope of this horror we have seen is just the tip of the iceberg of the mass murder committed. Apart from the Armenian genocide suffered in the early part of the 20th century genocide has never been successfully hidden for a long period of time. The truth will come out. 

Ethiopia’s financial resources are quite diminished now. Some estimate their reserves are less than $150 million as it is reportedly spent $ 150 million in just the past two months for drones and weapons. As a result in every region of Ethiopia there is no money for education, health care, or infrastructure. The supplying “dogs of war” have eaten their fill and not left much left to plunder. Some might even argue that Ethiopia was a demonstration run for Turkey to convince other countries to buy it’s drone weapons which Ethiopia nicely paid for. Now in return for not giving more weapons they will use their new sphere of influence to get new deals from the West. That was a part of the plan no doubt along. They got paid to get in and they will get paid to get out. Like a confidence game criminal they will move on to the next victim when they have exhausted Ethiopia’s treasures. Whatever wealth Ethiopia had has been transferred to the puppet masters who controlled Abiy Ahmed. 

Ethiopia was always the pawn in a larger power game between Arab states wanting to expand their sphere of influence, Russia, China, Europe and the USA. This is not about colonialism or African independence. I do not see how being $80 billion in debt to a foreign country for weapons is a step in the direction of self sufficiency. 

The only winners in this disaster were the weapons dealers and loan providers. Ethiopian development is probably been knocked backwards 10 to 30 years at least even if the war stops now. So much hate has been generated between Tigray, Amhara, Oromo, and other peoples the idea of Ethiopia going forward as a united people seems more remote then ever.

The African Union is quietly abandoning Addis Ababa. Addis Ababa premier investment group Cepheus Capital which promised great investment rewards in a land of milk and honey cannot continue the false promises of high growth and stability. Ethiopia may default on its junk rated bonds in the next quarter. Ethiopia will come out of this most likely more divided or in a state of chronic war. With a primitive quality of living comparable to the times the prosecutors of the war like to fantasize about.  Unfortunately the old saying TIA, this is Africa, which former President Obama warned us about is still true. The never ending cycle of self-destruction continues.

 

 

The quick death of Ethiopia’s freedom of the press

Ethiopia is not only becoming a major repressor of free press but aligning itself with the other worst oppressor countries

While Abiy Ahmed supporters complain of international press discrimination against the Ethiopian government they turn a blind eye to the complete loss of press freedom and increasing prosecution in Ethiopia. The respected Committee to Protect Journalists latest report finds Ethiopia only second to Eritrea in violations of press freedom. Any news about Ethiopian federal government activities not officially approved is now considered an act of terrorism immediately liable to imprisonment. 

In May 2021 Reuters reported that over 21 journalists many of whom had been previously freed had been arrested in the previous year. Scores of journalists and their media have been shut down, jailed, or left the country fearing imprisonment or worse. Despite this Billene Seyoum, press representative for Abiy Ahmed, falsely claims “conditions for journalists are improving”.

When Abiy Ahmed came to power as Ethiopian Prime Minister in 2018 one of the tenants he proclaimed for his vision of a new democracy was freedom of the press. In fact the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize committee noted specifically that Abiy had “discontinued media censorship”. Now Abiy Ahmed’s voice is the only one allowed to be heard in Ethiopia.

 

 

 

A tribute and prayer for Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed

Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed resigned her position as Minister of Women, Children, and Youth in September 2021 citing personal reasons but it is clear the behavior of the government was not tolerable to her faith.

There are reports that former Ethiopian Minister of Women, Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed, is in Kenya hoping to find peace for Ethiopia. We know her faith in Islam teaches that women and children are to be protected in war. I pray that Allah, the Arabic name for God who formed his covenant with Abraham which also lead to my Christian faith, will watch over his faithful servant. There is always hope for a peaceful solution to the Ethiopian crisis when good people of conscience and faith exist.

Filsan Abdullahi Ahmed was appointed the Minister of Women, Children, and Youth by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in March of 2020. She is an observant Muslim Somali region native from educated parents and education in both Ethiopia and England. Prior to government service she had established her reputation as working with youth and seeking equality for women in government positions.

After the occupation of Mekelle, the Tigray capital, reports came out of many instances of violence against women which caused her to work with the Attorney General in Mekelle in February to investigate these claims. As a result on February 11, 2021 she announced such claims were “true without a doubt”. Ultimately Abiy Ahmed and his followers began a propaganda campaign against the truth leading to Filsan Ahmed’s resignation on September 27, 2021. Apparently now she is exile and fearing reprisal. 

The ongoing Ethiopian war is depriving a generation of education and growth

“As the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region expands, an entire generation of children is facing a disruption to their education that will limit their economic opportunities and could fuel further conflict.”

Abiy Ahmed’s ongoing war on Tigray and Oromo is costing Ethiopian youth throughout Ethiopia a chance for a decent education and to escape poverty. The all out financial burdens of war have created massive inflation and diversion of funds away from education. Instead of going to school teenagers from Northern Ethiopia now just like their Eritrean neighbors to the north under Isaias Afwerki can only look forward to carrying a rifle instead of books.

The effect of war on children includes not only poor physical development from malnutrition but also psychosocial developmental aberration due to constant lack of security for families as noted in past reports to UNESCO.  For example the militarized country of Eritrea with a population of only 4 million or so frequently has more than 300,000 youth not being significantly educated. As a university educator for medical students, neuroscientists, and neurosurgeons in Tigray who was seeing Ethiopia hoping to emerge into a 21st century middle income country which can only be achieved by a strong education system this hope has all but faded.

Following the Derg war and Eritrean wars Ethiopia had gradually made progress in developing education. However, research on the effect of the Eritrean war showed that deprivation of education had severe long term effects on the Ethiopian economy. The percent of national budget had risen to over 4% of government spending under the previous government which was above average for an African country but still many of the poor especially rural women did not progress beyond elementary school.  Now that number has decreased drastically.

Every school in Tigray was destroyed by Eritrean and Ethiopian forces. Several million people including children are now displaced such that tens of thousands of schools are now dysfunctional in Tigray, Amhara, and the Afar regions. The Ethiopian government has shut down the primary and secondary education system supposedly to allow harvesting of crops but the reality is there is no available funding for education now and will not be until the war comes to end. 

The Tigray President , Koreta, and Democritus theory of war

As a young recruit to the TPLF Debretsion was seen to be shy and quiet but intense in wanting to learn. He quickly became an expert on communications and intercepting enemy radio communications. He was able to interpret enemy plans and helped develop counter-strategy.

After a week of strategic withdrawal when many Ethiopian supporters were predicting imminent defeat today we see again a dramatic advance of the Tigray Defense Forces.  In fact before the news about the new rout of Amhara and Ethiopian National Defense Forces was announced many Amhara websites were falsely claiming complete victory in hours. It seems their wrong perceptions clouded the reality of the moment.

The study of what decides the fortunes of war for winner and loser goes back to ancient Greece and China as well. Living in the 3rd century BC in ancient Greece, Democritus was loved by Aristotle and hated by Plato. He believed that man relied too much on what he perceived by senses alone which could be affected by emotion and should instead always determine what is truth by applying reason. While others said “fortune favors the bold” Democritus said bold helps the start but does not decide the end of war.

Thinking about this takes me back to my many conversations with Debretsion Gebremichael, the President of the Tigray State, on many subjects relating to university and medical matters on shared airplane flights. He was mostly an attentive listener who would ask questions in a way that indicated he was seeking to understand cause and effect for every topic. 

Of course I never had a chance to discuss war with him but this recurrent use of koreta by the Tigray to draw their enemy into a snare of ambush on the false pretense of an easy victory against a retreating army seems to be a recurring story. Interestingly this technique also goes back to ancient Rome and the victory of Hannibal at Carthage.

Debretsion Gebremichael presents quite a contrast from the boastful, somewhat empty intellectual, and rash acting Abiy Ahmed who continually seems to have problems with his perception of reality.

Abiy Ahmed’s dedication only to war insures greater poverty for Ethiopians

The cost of war for Ethiopians is not just felt on the battlefront or even the millions now displaced but in the ransacking of the future of young Ethiopians who once believed in future prosperity. The dream of Ethiopia to escape poverty is rapidly fading.  While Ethiopian diaspora who are rarely Tigray and Oromo tout Abiy Ahmed as a prophetic bringer of fortune and power the opposite is becoming clear.  The economy of Ethiopia is diving into a bottomless abyss beginning when Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018 with an increasingly accelerating progression downward. 

The Ethiopian birr has fallen in value by almost 50% since 2018. Noted Johns Hopkins economist Steven Hanke as well as others note that the current inflation rate of 31% which predicts will lead to an unbearable circumstance for the average Ethiopian.

The birr continues to decline vs the dollar

Total Ethiopian gold reserves were at over $ 400 million when Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018 but now are likely below $100 million after payments to Eritrea, United Arab Emirates, Iran and others for weapons.

The Biden administration has clearly stated that it no longer considers the government under Abiy Ahmed a democracy. The free trade agreement, African Growth and Opportunity Act, with Ethiopia was dependent upon Ethiopia following democratic principals mutually agreed upon which were violated. Similarly many Western democracies are taking a similar view.

Although the Ethiopian government falsely claimed economic growth rates of 6% the real number is more like -2% and dropping. The  human rights violations and the instability of the Ethiopian state by an ongoing war with no end coming on the horizon severely inhibits foreign investors from participating in the Ethiopian economy which at this point has no future.

Eritrea’s choosing no COVID19 vaccination endangers Ethiopia and Africa

Eritrea propaganda complains that great achievements are vilified by the West. In reality they have empty buildings without proper faculty or equipment except for that recently stolen from the Tigray invasion.

While the 55 states of the  African Union struggle to contain COVID19 Eritrea is the only one who has chosen not to even start COVID19 vaccination said John Nkengasong ,the head of the African Centres for Disease Control. One wonders if the mentoring of Eritrean leader, Isaias Afwerki, to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has influenced Ethiopia’s decision to drastically scale down its own COVID19 vaccination plan with less than  4% of the population even receiving one dose. The exposure of a Eritrea taking no real steps to control COVID19 endangers neighboring Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Somalia and the rest of Africa.

Sixty six percent of Eritrea’s 5 million population  live in extreme poverty on less than $1 a day. Eritrea’s reporting of  the health care system leaves much to be desired. In spite of making claims of an advanced and comprehensive health care system for the most part health care in Eritrea exists only in a very sparse and rudimentary level.  Political elites go to Dubai while the poor and deprived suffer despite claims of “remarkable achievements“.  While reporting $24 per capita per year which would be equal to Ethiopia there is a definite disparity between Ethiopian and Eritrean healthcare. I know this personally having cared for hundreds of Eritrean refugees and visitors in Mekelle from the camps and when the border was open. I also saw elites in private clinics who would fly into Addis from Dubai. Additionally we had a few doctors training with us who were refugees from Eritrea. Eritrea spends more on propaganda showing some facilities in Asmara rather then giving the care. A young Eritrean doctor has given testimony on the fallacy of Eritrean claims.

While giving the excuse they are a young country they have poor training for physicians and nurses. No training beyond medical school for specialization. Essentially no intensive care and limited newborn facilities. There is a shortage of essential medicines such as insulin, antibiotics, and blood pressure control pharmaceuticals. Ironically, we were negotiating with them to train surgeons before the war broke out.

Saint Paul’s warning against idolatry presiding over Christianity in the world today

Watching the memorial to Bob Dole at the WWII monument brought this reflection of St. Paul’s warning of idolatry

Watching the memorial to Senator Bob Dole today. Tom Hanks in his tribute speech said “Bob Dole struggled to make America always a more prefect nation in an imperfect world”! America has always been a place where strong disagreements on policy and action have been a part of our nation. Arguments about the rights of individuals versus duty to the nation started with the first days of American independence. Yet there was something special about the “greatest generation” who came through World War II of which the late Senator Dole is a great example. 

America in the early years of the war was not just fighting for democracy but for survival. Different political bents found common purpose and the absolute need to communicate and talk with each other. A day ago I was with an elderly friend who was very active in politics in St. Louis years ago with frequent interactions in Washington, D.C. He described how politicians from different parties would live in the same neighborhood, share family picnics, and sometimes a beer at the local pub. Now it is as if they are in enemy camps.

Somehow today we have lost that sense of unity. Today it is always “we” versus “they”. Our tribal affiliation is more important than the real greater purpose. Thaddeus Williams in Confronting Injustice without Comprising Truth makes the strong point that Saint Paul in his Biblical writings in Romans and Acts warned Christians to beware of this type of idolatry that leads us to see others as not also being of God’s creation. Idolatry represents a rebellion against God, against truth, and is worthless.

Unfortunately this idolatry presiding over what should be our Christian values separates us not only from each other but also God. This only seems to be increasing not only in the USA but throughout the world wherever you see conflict including Ethiopia. 

Ethiopia has spent over $2 billion killing Ethiopians but little saving them from COVID19

Earlier this year Abiy Ahmed’s government mislead the population that an effective Ethiopia traditional medicine cure to COVID19 had been found as a part of the propaganda campaign. Later the Ministry of Health had to back track.

While the world prepares for the expected winter onslaught of the COVID19 pandemic Ethiopia has fallen far behind in vaccination complicated by intentional duplicity and deception to it’s people as a part of the overall propaganda campaign to hide government failures. With only 7.9% of the population receiving only 1 dose and 1.3% receiving two doses of vaccine in a country of 155 million Ethiopia is reporting very few cases. Why? Certainly there is no mechanism for testing, treatment, or data collection in Tigray where a complete blockade is underway. About the number of testing sites among the number of displaced people estimated to be over 4 million and perhaps as high as 20 million there is little information.

In September 2020, Abiy Ahmed touted a new factory to make test kits allowing testing for COVID19 in a contract with the Chinese company BGI but its focus was on testing travelers coming to Ethiopia who could pay for the tests as well as creating an export product rather than government domestic use. The Ethiopian government agreed to only purchase 1.5 million kits for domestic use.

In the midst of the worldwide COVID19 pandemic that just is not going away the Ethiopian government had sown mistrust with claims of an “African solution” that would obviate foreign vaccines when the Ministry of Innovation and Technology, Ministry of Health and traditional medicinal practitioners announced that they have approved a traditional medicine that was tested on humans and animals since the COVID 19 outbreak was in December 2019. No doubt this was at the urging of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Later when the facts became known that Ethiopia did not have even the research capacity to do such a study and that it was false, the Minister of Health had to back track saying that the initial message was “misunderstood”.

There was much excitement in March 2021 when plans were announced that The first shipment of the AstraZeneca vaccines produced by Serum Institute of India (SII) arrived in Ethiopia on through COVAX, which facilitated the procurement and shipment of the vaccines. Subsequent shipments of 5.4 million doses as part of the current global deployment plan were to arrive in Ethiopia by May 2021. Ethiopia had stated that by the end of 2021 20% of the population would immunized. Now the standard has changed from two injections to three further exacerbating the disparity.

While the COVAX provides up to 30% of the doses for free African countries must fund 70%. Ethiopia has spent over $2 billion in the last year alone to kill Ethiopians rather use funds to protect its citizens health. Costs of vaccines include manufacturing, safe storage, transportation, and logistical support. One dose costs $1.41 and two doses$3.15. This means Ethiopia would have to spend 70% of $362,250,000 equaling $253,575,000 to give just two doses to every Ethiopian.

Health care spending per capita in Ethiopia had slowly increased reaching almost $25 per person in 2017 before Abiy Ahmed came to power. Since then there has been a steady decline of about 10% per year. Falling birr value against foreign currency, $70 billion government foreign debt almost doubled by war expenditures, and new sanctions inhibiting foreign investment make the likelihood of increasing health care expenditures almost impossible.

The supply of vaccines has also been effected by the growing need for boosters which has caused the World Health Organization to complain that developed countries should prioritize the whole world receiving a first dose but politically this has been difficult to accept.

 

Jeffrey Feltman’s high stakes but potential high reward mission

Special Representative to the Horn of Africa is going to UAE, Egypt, and Turkey this week to discuss the Ethiopia Tigray conflict as well as related issues

The complicated issues to be discussed by United States Special Representative Jeffrey Feltman with United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Egypt are as big challenge as one can imagine but the stakes are high for all involved. The discussion will be pointed to finding peace in Northern Ethiopia between Tigray and the Ethiopian government but will also have to include stalemates in water use agreements of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and trying to resurrect the nuclear arms treaty with Iran. While visiting the three named countries discussion involving and perhaps under the radar are also likely to go on with Israel, Eritrea, and  Iran. 

Saudi Arabia and UAE continue to fight a proxy war in Yemen supporting government forces against Iranian backed Houthi insurgents which seems to be stuck in constant famine and civilian death but no resolution. This could be repeated in Ethiopia if no negotiated peace comes.

The United States has maintained targets for negotiation to fruitfully begin including Tigray forces withdrawal to its borders, Eritrea withdrawal from Ethiopia, free flow of food, medicine, and fuel to Tigray and the other regions of Ethiopia. It has asked for a clear and comprehensive investigation of human rights violations including those against women in Tigray and Northern Ethiopia by all parties by an unbiased body.

The United States has considerable power to negotiate as Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Iran would want to escape further sanctions which could be devastating. Egypt and Sudan are at the point of hostility to the point that they are not in a serious discussions with Ethiopia. Offering Iran a chance to re-enter markets may sway its selling of weapons to Ethiopia.  The United Arab Emirates enjoys its sovereignty but its closeness with the United States is more vital then supplying Ethiopia weapons. Being good negotiators they no doubt will want some favorable concessions.

Ethiopia needs to decide if it wants to stay as a favored nation to the United States and Western democracies are move to the China, Russia, Iranian axis. With debts approaching $80 billion and no agreement in sight with China on repayment there is no doubt that many years of austerity lay ahead for Ethiopia even if it wins “victory” soon cutting its future economic development severely. Without negotiation there is a risk of civil instability going on for years with the consequent limited international interest in investing in Ethiopian development.

On the other hand Tigray will have make a promise to stay within its borders in return for guarantees of security from the United States and Western democracies. Tigray needs friends but that comes at the price of forgetting to attempt an overthrow of the Ethiopian federal government. No doubt what to do with Western Tigray will be a major contention.

In the ideal world, the GERD controversy, Sudanese-Ethiopian land dispute, and Tigray war could be tied up with less sanctions for Iran and Eritrea. Not everyone would get all they want but more war could be averted. We can only hope reason will reign over passion for all groups.