The constant gauntlet of fear without hope for the Tigray of Addis Ababa

International authorities estimate thousands of Tigray have been arrested recently in Addis Ababa

This family crisis was told to me a few hours ago. She was born in Addis as were her parents. Had only been to Tigray a few times and did not speak Tigrinya well. She and her husband had gone to Addis Ababa University and been active in the community helping the lest fortunate of all ethnicities for the past few years.  Their three children went to a local elementary school. No involvement in politics at all. They were church going to the local Orthodox church. Their neighborhood was not known to have many Tigray. Many of her neighbors who had previously been friendly and interacting had withdrawn from contact increasingly.

Several weeks ago federal police came and took her husband away and took her bank deposit book informing her that their joint professional office was closed as was her bank account. They searched her phone and erased it. Friends and family have been bringing food but this week the local neighborhood “watch” group told those bringing food to stop lest they would be arrested.

Today they took “Tigist”(not her real name). The authorities just took her and put her in truck with many others. No time to arrange anything. No message to anyone. Her next door neighbor heard the three children all under 7 at home crying. Now her neighbor is wondering if she is next.

Another day of the year of injustice to innocent Tigray of Ethiopia. Nobody knows exactly how many are detained or even where they are. They have no rights of habeas corpus or even to a lawyer. Trying to find out where they are can gets the one asking in detainment just for asking the question. How many is speculated to be at least 40,000 from Addis Ababa and growing everyday.

Ethiopia not invited to Biden Summit on Democracy and will suffer more severe sanctions

Statement on Detentions in Ethiopia from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, and USA

President Biden will hold his “Summit on Democracy” virtually December 9-10 with 110 countries but Ethiopia, Eritrea, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Sudan will not be invited. The Biden administration has stated that concurrent with the meeting there will be announcement of wide actions including further sanctions against countries violating human rights and practicing corruption.

The State Department of the United States has stated on numerous occasions that Eritrea should leave its occupation of Ethiopian territory, the Tigray forces should return to their territorial borders, and that Abiy Ahmed should stop imprisonment of Tigrayans. Today a Joint Statement on Detentions in Ethiopia was jointly released by the governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Sanctions are likely to be imposed on Ethiopia and Eritrea according to a spokesman for the United States Treasury Department who said “Treasury will take a series of actions to designate individuals who are engaged in malign activities that undermine democracy and democratic institutions around the world including corruption, repression, organized crime, and serious human rights abuse,” to many leaders around the world.

Those giving support to Tigray genocide risk future US federal prosecution

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described the violence in Ethiopia’s Tigray region as “ethnic cleansing“.

American citizens or legal resident aliens could be subject to fines up to $1 million or imprisonment up to 20 years for inciting, conspiracy, attempting or direct involvement with genocide. The first step to declaring a genocide in Tigray by Eritrean and Ethiopian governments has been taken by the declaration of “ethnic cleansing” by United States Secretary of State Tony Blinken this week. Additionally the US Embassy in Eritrea called once again for the complete withdrawal of Eritrea from Tigray. Numerous interviews with various US government officials has indicated that the US has been holding off on full designation pending further negotiations. However, so far no real progress has been made.

Ethiopia diaspora and others acting in substantial support of the state sponsored genocide in Tigray should understand the implications if an official genocide designation is given.

Section 1091 of Title 18, United States Code, prohibits genocide whether committed in time of peace or time of war. Genocide is defined in § 1091 and includes violent attacks with the specific intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. There is Federal jurisdiction if the offense is committed within the United States. There is also Federal extraterritorial jurisdiction when the offender is a national of the United States.

Head of Arab League promises Ethiopia will “pay the price” for GERD defiance

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit

Ahmed Aboul Gheit Secretary General of the  League of Arab States was quoted in Arab News saying that Ethiopia will “pay the price” for constructing the Renaissance Dam, which has caused a growing urgent crisis between Addis Ababa and Cairo as well as Khartoum. The Arab League is expressing complete support for Cairo and Khartoum in this matter. Increasing tensions are now extending beyond just Egypt and Sudan to include other Arab nations. He was at the Mediterranean Dialogues in Rome this week.

They are also seeing other countries supporting Ethiopia’s military efforts as being complicit. The Secretary General further explained that “It is a dam of ruin for two Arab countries (Egypt and Sudan),”, adding that the “tragic situation” facing the Arab world in recent times has given Turkey, Iran, Israel and Ethiopia an opportunity to interfere in the region’s affairs.

Founded in 1945, the Arab League is a loose alliance of nearly two dozen Arab countries that have pledged to cooperate on economic and military affairs, among other matters.

In June 2021 it sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council asking for intervention because of Ethiopia’s noncooperation with negotiations on water use from Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to which Ethiopia objected. At that time the Arab League warned Ethiopia’s statement could undermine the friendly and cooperative relations between the league and the African Union.

A quoted source said that Ethiopia’s message contained many inaccuracies, but “the most dangerous thing was the clear attempt to drive a wedge between two regional organizations that have maintained close and solid relations.”

Ethiopia is now Egypt’s greatest security threat says Minister Atti

Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Abdel Atti has been increasingly critical of Ethiopia for some time

The complete lack of Ethiopian cooperation on Nile water usage is now Egypt’s greatest security threat. No Pan-Africanism sentiments here as Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Atti in his speech at the Planet Budapest 2021 Sustainability Expo and Summit on Thursday said “Ethiopian side deliberately issued false statements and managed the dam unilaterally, which caused great damage to the two downstream countries [Egypt and Sudan],” he added. Sudan, as a result of the unilateral filling last year, suffered from a severe drought, followed by a flood, he clarified. He pointed out that the Egyptians and others along the Nile have shown “great flexibility” in trying to work out a deal with Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed has avoided meeting or discussing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with Egypt since the start of Ethiopia Tigray conflict. 

He and others in the Egyptian government have stated that the Nile River flow is a “matter of life and death” for Egyptians.  They add the increasing demand for water while is it becoming a scare resource demand that agreement by all users of the Nile must be bilateral. Climate change and this scarcity are causing a crisis. Egypt is looking at sea water desalination and improving the efficiency of using water resources in domestic, industrial, and agricultural applications but this does not negate the absolute need for Ethiopian cooperation.

Ethiopian hypocrisy of killing Oromo elders meeting in traditional democratic councils

Night Shot Of Karrayyu Tribe People Gathered Around The Gifts Offered To The Karrayyu Tribe Families For The Gadaaa Ceremony, Metahara, Ethiopia

Apparently the Abiy Ahmed regime feels threatened by longstanding democratic practices of the Oromo people. Whilst saying it wants an African solution to an African problem they kill Oromos trying to do just that. The extrajudicial killing of members of an elder council  of Karrayyu Oromo in the East Shewa zone of Oromia this week apparently by elements of Amhara militia is an attack on the Oromo culture and tradition. Unfortunately much of the discontent of the Oromo people in Ethiopia gets little attention in the current conflict. For sometime the Oromos have practiced legal pluralism with a mix of traditional practices and more modern governmental functions. Researchers on these practices have found them to be effective in reducing violence and helping local populations prosper peacefully. Interestingly Ethiopian Prime Minister in his claimed PhD thesis discussed elder councils as a way to solve conflicts but now seems to have dumped the concept. Although spokespersons for Abiy Ahmed deny their involvement, many Oromos point to the recent history of executions by Amhara militia documented on published videos and history of domination.

The Karrayyu Oromo who once numbered over 200,000 in population are a subgroup of the Oromo people, the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia numbering 33 million or 32% of the Ethiopian population. Their origins in what came to called Ethiopia goes back many hundreds of years. They are mostly nomadic pastoralists who came under Amhara domination during the reign of Menelik II at the end of the 19th century. Like many Oromos they complain of a history of discrimination and deprivation under Amhara rule.

The Karrayyu and their fellow Oromos practice the gadaa system which involve different generations rotating local government responsibilities in social, political, economic, and religious life. Western political scientists have recently studied and noted this form of democracy as potentially predating the Greek concept of democracy.

There are longstanding bonds between many Sudanese and the Tigray

A soldier walks past girls looking on in the village of Dukouli within the Quraysha locality, located in the Fashaqa al-Sughra agricultural region of Sudan’s eastern Gedaref state on March 16, 2021. –  (Photo by ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP) (Photo by ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP via Getty Images)Photo taken from Egyptian Al-Monitor which reported that Ethiopia falsely blamed Tigray forces for the attack on Sudanese forces now escalating into conflict between Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Sudanese forces.

This week I had a 2 hour discussion with a Tigray diaspora who grew up in Sudan during the Derg Regime with many connections still present there. This person just spent almost 2 months visiting Sudan especially the two main refugee camps holding more than 70,000 people mostly from Western Tigray. I will not identify this person because he/she still has relatives in the occupied region.

Some refugees are still coming in sometimes at 30 a day sometimes none. At first at the beginning of the war some where able to bring trucks or cars but now its only on foot. Over many years the Tigray have traded with the Sudanese and some older Tigrayans have stayed living in Eastern Sudan along the border. These Tigrayans who grew up in Sudan most if not all speak Arabic which is not too different then Tigrayan for many words.

This diaspora was friends with many prominent local Sudanese and one high ranking officer in the military who expressed concern for the welfare of the Tigrayans and a sense of kinship for a neighbor different then for Ethiopians in general right now. They are also upset about the failure to come to agreement on the use of the Nile with Ethiopia and feel that the Tigray have been mistreated.

Sudanese leader declares al-Fashaga is fully Sudanese threatens conflict

Sudan is committed to military conflict to protect its sovereignty over al-Fashaga reports the Sudan Tribune

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Sudan was quoted in the Sudan Tribune saying “Al-Fashqa is fully a Sudanese territory!” Analysts have noted that the strong claim of Sudan territorial claim of al-Fashaga, rich farmland on the west Ethiopian Sudanese border, as well as continued lack of agreement on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is helping to coalesce political support and unity in Sudan. The Sudanese government intends to place more military support in the disputed area and will vigorously defend against any Ethiopian incursion. Meanwhile Abiy Ahmed Prime Minister of Ethiopia has stated on multiple occasions that al-Fashaga is Ethiopian territory leading to escalating military engagements since he took power in 2018. 

Given recent events and the stances of the two countries there is a high likelihood more military conflict between them is coming. Sudan has a significant military force consisting of almost 100,00 manpower with almost that many again in reserve. Military hardware assets include 45 fighter jets, 38 attack aircraft, 43 attack helicopters, 830 tanks, 450 armored vehicles, and 10 self-propelled artillery. The weakened state of the Ethiopian military and its ongoing war with the Tigray Defense Force and Oromo Liberation Army have made Sudan’s military strength even more relevant. What outcome will this have on the Ethiopia Tigray conflict?

Ethiopia’s deteriorating relations with Sudan and Egypt will benefit Tigray

Sudan’s military reclaimed regained control of Shai Pet agricultural settlement in May 2021 a part of Al-Fashaga

While trying to induce sympathetic feelings of Pan-Africanism from other African countries, Abiy Ahmed lead Ethiopia continues to stumble badly when dealing with fellow African countries, Sudan and Egypt. Their relationship with the Ethiopian Prime Minister is deteriorating severely. If anything they may be increasingly inclined to help the Tigray.

Leading Egyptian news source, Al-monitor, today reports that Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty has stated that Egypt is increasingly finding the current Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam lack of agreement untenable. Despite numerous meetings with the African Union representatives, United Nations representatives, and leading world powers Abiy Ahmed has simply refused to talk further. There seems on the part of Egypt a growing call to act before the damn filling proceeds further. On the contrary, Tigray Presidential Advisor, Getachew Reda, held an internet video meeting with an Egyptian television network which warmly greeted and praised the Tigray.

In conversations with personal friends with connections in Egypt I am hearing that many in Egypt think there is a problem with the GERD. For the past two years Abiy Ahmed has promised electricity generation but it has not happened. Experts looking at the damn have informed Egyptian government officials that there is a fault in construction which will prevent it from reaching full capacity. This perceived fault and the potential for the Tigray to prevail in the current Ethiopia Tigray conflict have prevented military action by Egypt so far even though President Trump famously told Egypt to “bomb it”. Opinion polls in Egypt in 2020 carried out by Gallup polls show that 70% of Egyptians are concerned that GERD will affect their vital supply of water.

Earlier this year Sudan and Egypt signed a joint defense treaty and had war games in a show of force to Ethiopia. Sudan complains that uncontrolled water control has and will lead to further mixes of drought and flooding.

This year there has been growing incidents occurring on the Sudanese Ethiopian border known as al-Fashaga.  Abiy Ahmed negated previous agreements for land sharing with Sudan leading to Sudan expelling Ethiopian farmers in December 2020. Ethiopia complains that Tigray Defense Forces have tried to enter from Sudan through this route. This week another clash happened with a disputed number of casualties suffered by Sudan when Amhara and Ethiopia as well as Eritrean forces entered al-Fashaga.

Even though there is current unrest in Sudan this damn dispute could act as a unifying factor for taking more action against Ethiopia. Many note that the relationship between Sudan and Ethiopian war partner, Eritrea, has been also damaged by Eritrea’s support of uprisings at the Port of Sudan.  Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, has sponsored meetings and organization for opposition groups to Isaias Afwerki, leader of Eritrea, this past year. The defense pact with Egypt is a significant factor as well as some have theorized although not proven that Egypt is providing support to the Tigray military forces. Nizar Manek and Mohammed Kheir Omer noted authorities predicted in Foreign Policy that Sudan might ultimately align with the Tigray in November 2020 at the beginning of the conflict.

Abiy Ahmed Ethiopian war spending creating a financially failed state

The latest estimate of the debt the Ethiopian government owes to foreign lenders shows it growing by more than $10 billion per year reaching $70 billion by the end of 2022. Since Abiy Ahmed took power it has more than doubled. It is important to also remember that Abiy Ahmed is spending about $50 million per airline flight of weapons from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates of which more than 15 flights have been documented which have not been officially financially documented.

Meanwhile medical supplies, COVID immunizations, food imports, fuel, and other foreign produced goods normally imported are being severely restricted due to the emphasis on war spending through out Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian economy which recorded 10% growth annually for the 10 years prior to Abiy Ahmed coming to power is now showing losses estimated to be negative 2% this year. Most economists agree that the debt to GDP (Gross domestic product) ratio should be less then 60%. Above 70% economic growth is hard to attain which Ethiopia has exceeded.

With the prolonged war in Northern Ethiopia which is unlikely to end soon, western democracy sanctions against Ethiopia, millions of displaced persons, locust swarms, abnormal rain patterns, and low COVID vaccination rates there is no doubt that there are now factors present to improve the economy it will only worsen. Abiy Ahmed’s government has been untruthful in trying to claim economic growth rates of 6% this year. 

Ethiopia imports about $14 billion in goods while only exporting $ 3.4 billion. The United States stopping trade under violations of human rights clause in the African Growth and Opportunity treaty will result in up to $200 million in annual losses. Other European countries are also joining in sanctions.

While in good times before the war the average Ethiopian family made about $850 per year this amount has been significantly decreased by the rapidly declining value of the birr which is now 1 dollar=48 birr this week. A decrease approaching 50% devaluation over the past year. Now to repay the growing debt the Ethiopian government would have to tax the average family $648 per year to make the debt service leaving just $200 a year for living.

Lack of honesty in the economic situation as well as the above factors have resulted in government bonds of Ethiopia reaching junk status. Currently France and China are trying to work out a new repayment plan but Abiy Ahmed has failed to produce an acceptable austerity plan on which they can agree. Many analysts are questioning how Ethiopia in its current state can economically survive?