Tag: Abiy Ahmed

Remembering 300 days of sorrow and strife in Mekelle

300 Days ago the misery of Tigray began but now the Tigray Army is giving hope for 7 million suffering in Tigray

Beginning 300 days ago Mekelle University has suffered airstrikes, artillery bombardment, rifle fire, pilfering of its records and equipment. Today the halls of the university and the wards of its hospital are empty accept for refugees trying to survive. Many of our employees and staff have been killed not because they became fighters to defend Tigray but just for walking on the street or trying to evacuate their elderly parents from a village.

The whole of the city of Mekelle, capital of Tigray, was bombarded with artillery for 24 hours even though all TDF defenders had left the city

A year ago Mekelle University was teaching thousands of students from not only Tigray and Ethiopia but many surrounding countries. Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital was teaching medical school to hundreds and training specialists in pediatrics, internal medicine, general surgery, pathology, obstetrics gynecology, otolaryngology, oral maxillofacial surgery, orthopedics and trauma surgery, forensic medicine, and neurosurgery. We were starting training in master anesthesia, MD anesthesiology, oncology, neuroscience PhD, and many other fields. Leading research was done in agriculture, veterinary medicine, engineering, medicine, and many other fields.

Even though we were a “Federal University” we were abandoned by the Ministries of Science and Higher Education as well as the Ministry of Health. As soon as the war started they pretended we did not exist. The Mekelle community shared what little food, water, and shelter they had with students from other regions and countries. All payment stopped to employees. All medical supplies stopped. With the encouragement of the the Ethiopian military Eritreans were allowed to rape students, ransack buildings, and take any war booty meaning computers, lab equipment, etc.  back to Eritrea.

It will take millions of dollars to rebuild the University and its services to the community. Unfortunately is is just a small part of the overall damage done to Tigray. Millions are still starving at the order of Abiy Ahmed and his hench man Isaias. But I can imagine it would be far worse now if the Tigray Army had not resurged and marched forward. It is not over but we pray God will guide them on their mission to find peace and eliminate the threat to the Tegaru from their man-made insufferable misery.
Psalm 18:39
“For You have girded me with strength for battle;
You have subdued under me those who rose up against me.”

Religious promotion of atrocities by Abiy Ahmed supporters is blasphemy against the Holy Spirit

The hope for a new harmonious national Ethiopian identity has now transformed to Abiy Ahmed and his blasphemers proclaiming killing, raping, and starvation are ordered by God to restore order. It is curious that Abiy Ahmed who claims to belong to a Christian denomination devoted to the Holy Spirit would so viciously act against it.

The dove is the classic artistic representation of the Holy Spirit

The Mulu Wongel (Full Gospel) Pentecostal church to which Abiy Ahmed claims membership began in the 1960s as a result of European missionaries. A key feature of this Christian denomination is that following initial baptism the believer seeks repeated episodes of intense connection with the Holy Spirit often evidenced by speaking in tongues similar to what the Bible describes in 1 Corinthians 14. The Mulu Wongel Church says it wants to be transformative to communities including families, women, and children while being transparent, impartial, and demonstrating humility.

This faith now claims 4.5 million Ethiopian believers. In interviews with the press the Prime Minister has stated that his “faith dictates his political vision and actions”. Detractors say what he is really doing is creating a grand deception.

After coming to power as Prime Minister in 2018 he sought expansion of his religious advisors seeking out Pentecostal and evangelistic diaspora in the United States and Europe as well as congregations of diaspora Ethiopian Orthodox Church from unrecognized Synods by the domestic Ethiopian Orthodox Church. Out of this expansion of support there arouse a new concept of how Abiy Ahmed began to see himself. Reinforced by his new friends, he began to espouse this idea of medemer which outwardly looked like a fusion of different Ethiopia ethnicities into a central national unity and purpose. He has confided to reporters that he does not understand why “others do not understand him”.  As more opposition developed he became more and more heavy handed. Instead what was underneath the surface was really an old recurring idea going back centuries of building an Ethiopian Empire with Amharic elite leadership at the helm. Whereas before he had seemed to identify with his Oromo identity this was tossed away when he saw a chance to gain power with the Amhara elite.

Although Abiy Ahmed came to power as the last minute leader of Oromia soon he ditched his Oromia allegiances and friends. Jawar Mohamed, the charismatic Oromo leader who lead the Qeero movement which could be said was the major cause of Abiy Ahmed coming to power was placed in prison where he languishes today.

Soon all things he claimed to stand for with the Mulu Wongel church were sinisterly transformed. Numerous diaspora protestant and unrecognized Ethiopian Orthodox churches began to speak of prophecy. That Ethiopia had survived and prospered by the marriage of church which proclaimed a manifest destiny under committed leaders in the vein of the Amharic monarchy which had been deposed by Derg Regime. They drew an analogy to the struggles of the early Jewish nation in the Book of Judges. In the midst of current unrest throughout Ethiopia seen following the withdrawal of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front(TPLF) in 2018 from national power they called for a return to this old concept insisting it was the will of God and Abiy was the intended “King”.

Although Abiy Ahmed had previously made speeches praising the TPLF and told a reporter in a televised interview he had no intent to ever go to war with Tigray that promise did not last. Following his meetings with the tyrant Isaias of Eritrea although not clearly evident then Abiy decided that Tigray would be the strawman in his quest for power with Isaias as his henchman. He cared little that Isaias has tortured, imprisoned, and killed members of the Mulu Wongel Church in Eritrea.

The diaspora clergy who had modest congregations found a cash cow with Abiy Ahmed. Many of them created GoFundMe accounts sometimes taking hundreds of thousands of dollars or euros with firery speeches about the threats to the survival of Ethiopian nationhood if the rats or cancer of the Tigray and others was not removed. God was making special allowances for Abiy Ahmed and fellow believers to do whatever was necessary to preserve their vision of Ethiopian state. Following God’s will would in fact create a new divine superpower to lead Africa and dominate the world. Whatever was necessary would be allowable under God such that no sin could be committed because it was for a higher purpose.

They seemed to have forgotten Jesus teachings in the Bible about sin. Although Jesus does say governments may ask citizens to perform functions as a part of their duty to the state there is a certain sin which is clearly unforgiveable. Blasphemy is especially egregious when a leaders of a group encourages others to do evil acts in the name of Jesus.

“whoever blasphemes against the Holy Spirit never has forgiveness, but is guilty of an eternal sin” (Mark 3:28–29)

In three Gospels Jesus makes abundantly clear that blasphemy against the Holy Spirit is unforgiveable especially if the offender shows no sign of remorse. It is curious that Abiy Ahmed who claims to belong to a Christian denomination devoted to the Holy Spirit would so viciously act against it.

Abiy Ahmed hypocritical deals with Turkish drug smuggling collaborator and Christian oppressor

Is Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed now making deals with a Turkish anti-Christian cocaine dealer? Does the hypocrisy of Abiy Ahmed know no bounds?

Photographs from the Nordic Monitor showing 24 containers of cocaine caught being smuggled to Brazil

Just this month a story published in the Nordic Monitor described that a jet owned by a close associate of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was caught smuggling 1.3 tons of cocaine into Brazil. The jet was owned by a company owned by Şeyhmus Özkan, a known oil smuggler who enjoys political cover thanks to his close ties to the Erdoğan government. He is a vital supporter of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.  The article noted that the response of the Turkish government to this event “bears the hallmark of a coverup by Turkish authorities”. Is Abiy Ahmed planning to use Ethiopian jets the same way to help his economy?

Components of Turkish Airlines have filed bankruptcy in last year and have struggled to do well in the international COVID19 pandemic. Additionally although offering low fairs which are probably violating international regulations on national subsidy to capture markets the airline suffers from a poor reputation of customer service. Frequent comments such as “worst airline ever” appear on the well known rating website Skytrax.

Although Abiy Ahmed presents himself as devoted evangelical Christian who promotes tolerance of religious diversity that is not the case with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who is coming under increasing international criticism for his suppression of Christianity in Turkey. Historically Istanbul once known as Constantinopol was known as the first nation to officially adopt Christianity by the Emperor Constantine. He is recognized and venerated by Ethiopian Orthodox followers as his mother, Helen, who is said to  have found the relics of the cross on which Jesus was crucified. This is in fact an important holiday in Ethiopia called Meskel which means cross in the ancient language of Ge’ez used by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church in its scripture. Why make deals with a man who mocks your own religion?

Ethiopians celebrate Meskel in the large square named for the holiday

Whereas it was once commonplace for Orthodox Christianity and Islam to co-exist in Turkey that has changed under Erdoğan’s leadership. Christian churches are being converted to Mosques and Christians are frequently confronted by police and accused of treason. The celebration of Meskel as an open public celebration as done in Ethiopia is outlawed in Turkey.

Fear of kingless country prophecy, Zemene Mesafint, drives Abiy Ahmed supporters

Like ancient Israel Ethiopia will fall without cohesion of a strong pious leader endorsed by righteous religious authority. This long and widely held political religious viewpoint has been directly assimilated into support for Abiy Ahmed by his supporters. They prophesize his fall from power will bring an unholy chaos and downfall of the state.

Abiy Ahmed visits deposed Abune Merkorios of the Ethiopia Orthodox Church who is supported by many diaspora

The origin of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church

The Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC) traces it history first to Hebrew traditions historically brought to Ethiopia by the Queen of Sheba and her son Menelik I who was fathered by the Hebrew King Solomon. Subsequently Judaism as the state religion gave way to Christianity in the third century AD under King Ezana. The EOC retained many Jewish features such as the kosher diet in part because of the nine Syrian Jewish Christians who came to Ethiopia and brought Scripture in the Geez language. Tewahedo, the concept of Jesus being of one mixed substance indivisible one from the other, separates it from Western and Eastern European Christology. Many Ethiopians see the parallels in the story of the struggle of the Jewish state and that of Ethiopia. They see this struggle as being dependent on the pious observance of the Ethiopian people.

Early on the EOC differentiated itself from the Western Roman Catholic Church and the Byzantium Church in the this concept of Tweahedo but also by accepting Donatism. In simple terms this meant that priest had to be absolutely holy and without corruption otherwise they are incapable of performing priestly duties including especially rituals of forgiveness and the eucharist. It also gave them a higher status in many ways to even the monarchy or political leaders. This lent and continues to lend authority to the words of clergy to the population.

They did however look to Emperor Constantine as a model of imperial orthodoxy. Similar to what happened in Europe during the middle ages a partnership developed between the EOC and the monarchy. The holy nature of the clergy gave them authority to proclaim Ethiopian monarchy as being chosen by divine will.

Strength through unity expands the empire and protects it

Initially the Ethiopian empire was born out of the Axumite Empire bordering the Red Sea and even some territory in Yemen consisting of the Semitic speaking peoples we know today as the Tigray and Amhara. Over the centuries holdings in Yemen were lost but the new Solomonic dynasty began to spread south and west. The Cushitic peoples of western, southern, and eastern Ethiopia were overcome and became subjects of the empire. However fierce rivalries grew within the empire leading to many episodes of betrayal, assassination, and wars. Additionally there were times when Muslims who make up at least a third and maybe 40% of the population fought the empire.  Ethiopian Christians believe their “God derived” unity and tolerance towards Muslims who accepted subjugation preserved the Christian state.

This intertwining of destiny, religion, and the need to keep power created even academic misrepresentations of Ethiopian history propagated by the ruling Amhara monarchy. For example that the Oromo people were immigrants to the Ethiopia and that Muslims were meant to be graciously accepted as refugees from the pagan Saudi kingdom but not part of the Ethiopian manifest destiny. Cushitics  were inferior and meant to be ruled by Amhara.

The prophetic chaos of the time of princes (without a king)

Fear of the danger of collapse of the empire from disunity happened during the period referred to as Zemene Mesafint in 1769 through 1865AD which is an analogy to the collapse of the 12 tribes of Israel in Jewish history which rendered them susceptible to invaders. Additionally the analogy goes further that this collapse was due to following away from God. Even though the Emperor Tewodros II lost to the British in war and committed suicide he is glorified as an example of strength in this unity.

Divisions develop in the Ethiopian Orthodox Church

Over the past century the EOC has developed significant divisions in its ranks. Over a half century beginning in the Caribbean Islands critics of the leadership of the Ethiopian Church began to develop. This was in part driven by the concept that Cushitic peoples of Ethiopia especially in the western and southern regions did not have the same citizenship status or rights as Northern Ethiopians. Amharic royalty had become the holders of power leading to the allowance of slavery and land acquisition of Cushitic’s. Many Oromos were characterized also as pagans for not joining the EOC. This facilitated their increased conversion to Islam and opened the way for the introduction of evangelical protestants to flourish.

Large numbers of diaspora came to the United States and Europe during the Derg regime Tigray Peoples Liberation Front conflict which followed the end of the monarchy. Opposition groups distrusted the appointments of the Patriarchs leading the EOC in Ethiopia as being too aligned with the Derg and subsequently the TPLF. Three groups of EOC churches developed, the unrecognized Holy Synod in exile, the neutral, and those loyal to the Patriarch over the past two decades.

Additionally, many Protestant converts, both in the diaspora and native Ethiopian population have now joined up with those in the Holy Synod in Exile fearing that a repeat Zemene Mesafint will happen. Currently under order of the the Prime Minister of Ethiopia,  Abune Mathias, the head of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, has accused the government of wanting to destroy Tigray and been placed under house arrest.

The Tigrayan Abune Mathias of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church is under house arrest

Many Ethiopian Protestant converts and exiled EOC members as well as Amharic factions in Ethiopia see Abiy Ahmed as the continuation of the partnership of political religious alliance that has been the prophecy of success for Ethiopia. While others see this as just a pretense for the continuation of expansionist Amharic elitism camouflaged by religion. 

 

 

 

Ethiopia’s worsening inability to pay $40 billion debt

While Abiy Ahmed has struggled trying to squelch rebellion throughout Ethiopia and proclaiming wonderous record economic growth truth of financial collapse is coming out. This week China’s EximBank decided to hold disbursing $339 million in further loan to Ethiopia because it is default. Currently 12 major infrastructure projects have no capital to continue including the electric railroad from Dijoubti to Addis Ababa. Another $98 million in debt from the African Development bank is also in default.

The Ethiopia-Djibouti railway carries a heavy debt burden

The railway is currently disabled by forces allied with the Tigray Army but its problems started well before the Tigray Ethiopian conflict. Under Abiy Ahmed’s leadership production of electricity for the whole nation had fallen behind to the extent that often there was not enough power to run the train. Secondly, although the Ethiopian government had dreamed of the train carrying exports including shoes to Djibouti this did not happen.

Since 2018 the African Union and international credit organizations had counseled Abiy Ahmed to focus on realistic economic development and restructure debt in a realistic matter. Instead he fixed his whole plan for fixing the economic distress and debt burden of Ethiopia on visions of selling electricity from the Grand Renaissance Dam.

International financial analysts have warned Ethiopia that the “Chinese model of heavy infrastructure development” financed by Chinese banks was a failed strategy unless domestic economic production was substantially increased. For example instead of being a net exporter of footwear the Ethiopian share of the domestic market is only 10% while 90% are imported.

Abiy Ahmed proclaimed that the Ethiopian Tigray conflict had cost more than $2.5 billion before the expansion of the war into Amhara and further uprising of regional liberation groups active throughout Ethiopia. At this point it is clear there will be no rapid return to the status quo present before November 2020. The war prosecuted by Abiy Ahmed has brought and likely will bring more sanctions from Western democracies as well as more defaults to Chinese, European, and other creditors. Financial stability does not seem attainable for the foreseeable future. There can be no prosperity without peace. 

Noted international authority on national debts, Fitch, now rates Ethiopia as ccc which is equivalent to a financially failed state. Now with $40 billion in debt, in a country wide civil war, severe inflation, yearly locust outbreaks and poor forecasts of economic growth unlike was present before he took power there seems no answer but a change in leadership.

The betrayal of the Tigray Region by Abiy Ahmed

In April 2018 Abiy Ahmed the new appointed Prime Minister of Ethiopia came to visit Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, with a message of hope, cooperation, and development. As a teenager in the Ethiopian Army he had served in the Tigray region and learned Tigrinya, the native language. He watched a circus show, sat with Tigray People Liberation Front leaders, and talked about a future together. Before his visit he had stated that it was time for a new era for all regions to work together. That the country should look forward and not be focused in the past.

Abiy Ahmed sits with TPLF leaders at the Mekelle Monument to Martyrs

He talked about infrastructure development including hydroelectric dams, a railroad project, the Mekelle water problem, giving support to private sector development , loans for investment, export support from the national bank, improving tourism,  bringing public meter taxi for Mekelle,  and a short lease proclamation for agriculture. None of these things ever happened.

Instead after his visit there came to be a movement in Ethiopia about the need to deal with the past.  In late 2018, the Prime Minister created a Reconciliation Commission “to maintain peace justice, national unity and consensus as well as Reconciliation among Ethiopian Peoples.”

Discussion began about injustice under the Monarchy, the Derg, and the Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Front under whose auspices Abiy Ahmed came to power as a compromise between Amhara and Oromia factions. Soon however, this effort which lacked any clear mandate, become a mechanism for consolidating power. 

By the 2019 budgets for the Tigray state which were calculated by population formulas used for all regions were beginning to be cut. Many former political leaders including those of the TPLF were sought out for arrest. Ethnic identity in the Amhara region, and other regions as well,  which normally had about 10% Tigray became an issue. There were pushes which began subtilty but then became open and forceful causing many Tigray to leave other regions and move back to Tigray.  Abiy Ahmed was using the usual formula for dictators by creating a Tigray strawman. He began to turn on even those who facilitated his rise namely Jawar Mohammed from Oromia.

On the occasion of the 2019 harvest and women’s festival Ashenda , Abiy Ahmed sent a message that Tigray culture was an important and vital part of Ethiopia. In a speech to Parliament he stated that the TPLF and Tigray leadership were examples to follow for other regions in Ethiopia. 

The Tigray Ethiopia conflict which was the end result of almost two years of escalating actions against the Tigrayan ethnicity was touted as a “law enforcement action”. That the Ethiopian government was going to free the Tegaru people from the crimes committed against them by the TPLF. Instead with its expatriate Eritrean allies it looted, killed, raped, and stole from the very people Abiy Ahmed said he would “liberate”. Finally he sarcastically complained that he had to remove his army from Mekelle because the Tegaru were helping the Tigray government too much. 

Today more than 300,000 Tegaru are suffering famine. Aid is being actively blocked by the Ethiopian government.  Revolts are now active in Beningshagul, Afar, Oromia, Agew, Somali, and Gambella who also feel betrayed.  Hope has been replaced to a fight for survival against a great betrayal. 

 

 

OLA forces reach Addis outskirts increased trade sanctions against Ethiopia coming

Abiy Ahmed meets with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey

At this moment multiple sources report Oromo Liberation Army elements are fighting in the neighborhood near Entoto Mountain on the edge of Addis Ababa just a short distance from the airport. At the same time Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a hasty visit to see the President Erdoğan of Turkey.  The Tigray Defense Force continues to advance toward both Bahir Dar and Gondar while also pushing into Western Tigray. The supply of weapons and trained combat soldiers seems to have run out for the Amhara militias trying a last stand near Bahir Dar and Gondar.

Meanwhile Germany and the United States are setting up to increase sanctions on the Ethiopian government.  Many are asking will the Prime Minister be able to come back if a take over of Addis is imminent?

Although there are all out call outs for volunteers many of the new fighters have no training and only sticks for weapons

Assuming for the moment his Prosperity Party will stay in power at least for a while recent diplomatic actions or lack there of predict poor relations with the United States. The snubbing of USAID Head Samantha Powers last week and now Jeffrey  Feltman, the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, by Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, raises the high likelihood that Ethiopia will be declared in violation of the AGOA which allows Ethiopian exports to the USA in hundreds of millions of dollars. Should the Ethiopian government survive which many seem to doubt at this point Ethiopia .

 

Graph of the trade balance between Ethiopia and the United States in millions of dollars

The United States State Department requests for peace talks with the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front by the Ethiopian government have been soundly rejected as well as requests for military forces invading Tigray to withdrawal, restoration of power, internet, access of aid and investigatory bodies to be allowed to enter Tigray. Growing impatience with the American State Department as well as members of Congress who have passed several resolution condemning the treatment of Tigrayans and the atrocities attributed to the Ethiopia and Eritrean fighting forces have resulted in no response.

U.S. total imports of agricultural products from Ethiopia totaled $151 million in 2019. Leading categories include: unroasted coffee ($130 million), nursery products ($6 million), spices ($3 million), planting seeds ($357 thousand), and wine and beer ($271 thousand)

Only 9% of total imports to Ethiopia come the United States. Ethiopia main imports are: foodstuffs, textile, machinery and fuel. Ethiopia main trading partners are: China (18 percent of total imports), Saudi Arabia (13 percent),  Russia and India (9 percent)

The African Growth and Opportunity Act of 2001 gave Ethiopia a chance to export 1800 different products to the United States duty free. However to participate in AGOA To meet AGOA’s there are strict eligibility requirements including ” countries must establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism, and the right to due process.  Additionally, countries must eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption and protect human rights.”

Ethiopia needs prayer and a reality check

For Ethiopians previously not affected by the Ethiopian Tigray conflict it is now time to come to reality. Now is the time for all to realistically assess where to go from here. It is a time for prayer and contemplation. Ethiopians not affected by the war so far need to realize they soon will be.

Wars always start too early and end too late. Having fantasy notions about a coming Ethiopian miracle will only cause more misery. Whatever becomes of Ethiopia is going to happen regardless of what further futile military action is done by Ethiopia.

Captured prisoners of the Amhara militia and Ethiopian National Defense Force on Mount Guna August 16, 2021 where the TDF repeated their historical victory which turned the tide against the Derg.

One in four people in all of Ethiopia are approaching a state of famine and for Tigray that is approaching 500,000. Ethiopian Airlines and mining interests are so disrupted by the war that the economy of Ethiopia is falling fast. Abnormal rain patterns as well as war now occurring in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Oromia, Beningshugal, Somali, and the SNNPNR will surely reduce the major harvest this year. Inflation for the year is approaching 50% and the birr may reach 75 to the US dollar very soon.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has left to meet Isaias in Eritrea and then on to Turkey. It may happen that the Bole Airport may be overtaken by Oromia Liberation Army forces before he makes it back if he really intends to comeback. So far Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has refused to negotiate but instead promising a massive counterattack which has never materialized. The Tigray and their allies have at least offered to negotiate.

At this point it is clear by many military and strategic analysts that Ethiopia cannot mount a significant counterattack to defeat Tigray. Now the Tigray Defense Force is being joined by fighters of liberation armies from Agew, Afar, Somali, Beningshugal, Oromia, and Gambella.

The Tigray Defense Force and their allies are driven by a need to free their people from perceived tyranny and abuse from Amhara elitism. The Amhara elites and their allies claim they want to preserve a chance for a unified Ethiopia that will become a more modern state. Unfortunately they cannot force their point of view upon others. As I and others have stated previously Ethiopian has always been an empire of subjugated nations. The prejudiced view of a united state of Ethiopia quickly fades from view as soon as you leave Addis for the countryside.

Thousands of Ethiopians are displaced now. Dessie Hospital and others in Amhara are overwhelmed with casualties. Most of the fighting equipment of the Ethiopian national defense force has been destroyed or taken by the Tigray Defense Force. Supply lines to both Tigray and Amhara as well as from Djibouti and Kenya are cut off. It may be just hours to days before the Bole Airport is closed. As of now no Ethiopian airline  flight is flying domestically. Civilian traffic between major cities is severely restricted. The isolated and tormented people of Western Tigray will soon be freed.

A prayer from His Eminence Archbishop Abba Kewestos Ethiopian Orthodox Patriarchate:

In the name of the Father and of the Son
And of the Holy Spirit one God, Amen.

For he that will love life, and see good days, let him refrain his tongue from evil, and his lips that they speak no guile:

Let him eschew evil, and do good; let him seek peace, and ensue it.
For the eyes of the Lord are over the righteous, and his ears are open unto their prayers: but the face of the Lord is against them that do evil.

And who is he that will harm you if you will be followers of that which is good?

But if ye suffer for righteousness’ sake, happy are ye: and be not afraid of their terror, neither be troubled;

But sanctify the Lord God in your hearts: and be ready always to an answer to every man that asketh you a reason of the hope that is in you, with meakness and fear;

Amen.

Unexpected consequences of Tigray Ethiopia conflict for Eritrea and Isaias Afwerki

The Isaias Afwerki Abiy Ahmed partnership has not brought them the results they expected

Unexpected consequences of the Tigray Ethiopian conflict may be making  Isaias Afwerki rethink his decision to commit military forces in support of the Ethiopian National Defense Force. The war has brought about changes in the relationship with not only Ethiopia but also the Arab states and Sudan. Rather than securing his position of power, Afwerki may have weakened his position.

Why did Isaias Afwerki, dictator of Eritrea, enter the Tigray Ethiopian conflict? Some say it was to permanently crush his long term adversary the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front. Others say it was to create a new partnership with Ethiopia that would bolster the Eritrean economy. However these explanations overlook the evil genius that has allowed Afwerki to survive since his rise to power in 1991.

It is now known that Eritrea has a debt burden of $3.87 billion with one of the poorest poor capita incomes of $587 annually. Over 45% of its food needs need to be imported for the population of only a little over 3 million. Almost every professional has left the country. There is a minimal health care and university system which combined with one of the most repressive governments, often compared with North Korea, which limits potential for development.

For the past few years Eritrea has sought to gain income from mining interests. It gave 60% interest to Chinese mining companies to develop and export gold, copper, zinc, and more recently has been looking at potash. Loans in excess of $300 million are in default to Arab states with the largest to Qatar . Bloomberg reports that in fact Qatar interests have filed suits in American courts to reclaim losses from Eritrean assets in foreign banks. The large Bina Mine had been built and run by the Canadian company, Nevsun. But a lawsuit on behalf of Eritrean workers was allowed in the Canadian courts leading to a settlement which revealed that workers at the mine were basically slaves. The Canadian interest except for a bout 10% was sold to the Chinese company, Zijin, in 2020.

The friendliness of Arab interests to finance the high cost of the Chinese partnership is waning fast. Eritrea had hoped to gain Arab favor and forgiveness by allowing Arab military ports and airbases to support their efforts in the Yemen conflict in which they fighting a proxy war against Iran. However the Arabs definitely see a conflict of interest as they have sided with Egypt and Sudan against Ethiopia in the rapid filling of the Grand Renaissance Dam. No doubt they expected Afwerki to be speaking loudly in support of the Arab united view rather than being mute. 

The United States and United Nations have clearly not wanted to alienate the delicate relationship they have with the Arab alliance. Clearly pressure from the United States played a role in the withdrawal of United Arab Emirates forces out of Eritrea and the use of their assets by Afwerki. The United States and Western democracies have been recognizant of Egyptian interests towards the use of the Nile River no doubt seeing Middle East interests of importance. 

For Afwerki economic realities which must be taking priority more than any concern about “friendship” with Abiy Ahmed. Afwerki has a keen sense of survival. No doubt he was surprised by the resurgence of the Tigray Defense Force, the growing world condemnation of the Ethiopian “law enforcement action” with its associated atrocities, and finally by its unforeseen consequence of economic chaos in Ethiopia which will not help Eritrea.

Recent transport of gold reserves by high ranking Prosperity Party officials of Ethiopia to Dubai as well the maintenance of secrecy about what is exactly contained in the document of the peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea are raising new questions. Is it likely that Abiy Ahmed is in fact been making payments to Afwerki for his mercenaries to function in Ethiopia? Now that the Ethiopian state is at risk and its resources depleted is Afwerki rethinking his strategy. If the payments or promises of payments have stopped then reasonably one would expect Eritrea to disengage.

Afwerki based upon the promises of Abiy Ahmed never expected that the Tigray Defense Force would resurge to threaten his own survival. Now that there is beginning to be realignment of Sudanese interests with Tigray  interests and the fact that the Khartoum is the now with the Sudanese government’s blessing the headquarters of opposition to the Eritrean government. Before the Tigray conflict Afwerki had been wooing Sudanese interests after a long history of distrust. Perhaps this is another reason Afwerki may be deciding he may need to withdrawal to protect his own interests.

 

 

The Rise of Ethiopian Clerico-Fascism supporting Abiy Ahmed

The term clerical or clerico-facism was first used relative to Ethiopia by Italian opponents of Mussolini invasion of Ethiopia in 1935. Almost a century later  clerico-fascism returns to describe Christian clergy in Ethiopia as well as diaspora in the United States and Europe who support completely the brutal invasion of Tigray by Abiy Ahmed.

Initial enthusiasm for religious unity under Abiy Ahmed leadership has faded to an Abiy Ahmed centric view

Currently in Ethiopia, the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, son of a Christian mother and Muslim father, but now a Pentacostal Christian is being criticized as being a clerico-fascist by opponents to his regime. They see this clerico-facism as really Amharic elitism by another name.

In 1920s Italy, the rise of Benito Mussolini found support with the Partido Poplare Italiano who advocated a joining of fascism and Catholicism. At the time the Catholic Church world wide was deeply concerned with the threat of communism and socialism which advocated loyalty to state above all else. That religion was an antiquated system contrary to the state. The marriage of Catholicism to facism offered a clear path of survival to the church all though opponents saw it as heresy.

After being elevated to Prime Minister from being the head of the Oromo Regional political party he went on a tour of the United States in 2018. He was accompanied by Jawar Mohammed, a Muslim diaspora leader, who both advocated a national identity overriding regional nationality as well as cooperation between all religions including Orthodoxy, Protestant, Catholic, Muslim, and others.

Now three years later radical Christian voices have become not only the main defenders of his policy of oppression and non-negotiation with political opponents and Tigray but appear to be even writing his policies. To understand this further we have to back in time to review the religious history of Ethiopia. The Prime Ministers promise of medemer, mixing for the benefit of all Ethiopians, has been changed to the old theme of Amharic elitism.

Legend has it that the Saban Queen of Sheba met King Solomon of Israel producing a son, Menelik, who began what is known as the Solomonic dynasty of Ethiopia. The Axumite Empire based in what is now the Tigray Regional State and Eritrea of initially ruled by the ancestors to the Tigrayans but gradually the Amhara region who are also descended somewhat from this empire took over. For centuries there was a close relationship of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC) and the monarchy such that Ethiopian identity was tied to this religion for both Tigray and Amhara. Muslims came to Ethiopia to seek refuge during the Prophet Mohammed’s struggles with the pagan Saudi Arabian leaders and were welcomed. Today they make up a sizeable minority in the country as a whole but traditionally were marginalized by not be allowed to own land. There ability to construct mosques in areas of Ethiopia were always restricted.

The ancient EOC began in the Semitic Tigray and Amhara region but over the past approximately 200 years its dominance spread with conquering of Cushitic kingdoms in the western and southern regions of Ethiopia. The religion, Amharic language, and many cultural practices of the Northern regions were exported to the new conquests. In fact just before the beginning of the 20th century, the monarchal capital was shifted from Northern Ethiopia to Addis Ababa in the center of the country in what was Oromo territory. This was done to allow for the Amhara rulers to better defend and govern their larger territorial gains.

The EOC promoted the idea that the Semitic kings were chosen by God to rule over all of what we know call Ethiopia. The Bible they use was written in Geez a precursor to the current Amhara language and the official language of trade and government become Amhara. Additionally the EOC promoted the idea that the Oromo and Southern peoples were of an inferior nature to the Semitics of the North. This resulted in the EOC approving of land seizure, capture,  and use of Southern and Western non-Semitic Cushitic’s to be used as slaves.

The Protestant conversions began in the Southern and Western regions by Western missionaries in the late 19th century and continuing today who told the people that they had equal status under God. Today the Protestant churches, mostly Pentecostal, are growing fast and have moved up from the Southern regions to central Ethiopia including the capital city of Addis Ababa. They have little presence in Tigray which has small groups of Catholics and Muslims.

When Abiy Ahmed toured the United States it excited both Amharic diaspora who were EOC and also the newer evangelical protestant. Pentecostals believe in the concept of Arminianism which clearly proclaims that salvation is rigidly defined by their specific definition and all others deserve suffering and hell completely. Other types of evangelical Christians believe in the Calvinistic idea that only a few are pre-chose by God even before birth for salvation and leading society. A tri-partite alliance of Pentecostals, evangelical Christians, and significant elements of the Amharic EOC has formed as stalwart advisors and defenders of the policy of aggression to only the Tigray but other minority groups in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia and other countries with large numbers of diaspora major divisions have arisen within the EOC.

Abiy Ahmed’s opponents say that he has under gone a transformation from calling for equality to one that really promotes Amhara elitism. As noted by many historians such as Professor Christopher Clapham who writes: “Although Ethiopia has continuously formed a multi-ethnic political system, participation in national political life normally required assimilation to the cultural value of the Amhara core: the Amharic language, orthodox Christianity and a capacity to operate within the structure and assumptions of a court administration.”