Month: December 2021

Abiy Ahmed’s dedication only to war insures greater poverty for Ethiopians

The cost of war for Ethiopians is not just felt on the battlefront or even the millions now displaced but in the ransacking of the future of young Ethiopians who once believed in future prosperity. The dream of Ethiopia to escape poverty is rapidly fading.  While Ethiopian diaspora who are rarely Tigray and Oromo tout Abiy Ahmed as a prophetic bringer of fortune and power the opposite is becoming clear.  The economy of Ethiopia is diving into a bottomless abyss beginning when Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018 with an increasingly accelerating progression downward. 

The Ethiopian birr has fallen in value by almost 50% since 2018. Noted Johns Hopkins economist Steven Hanke as well as others note that the current inflation rate of 31% which predicts will lead to an unbearable circumstance for the average Ethiopian.

The birr continues to decline vs the dollar

Total Ethiopian gold reserves were at over $ 400 million when Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018 but now are likely below $100 million after payments to Eritrea, United Arab Emirates, Iran and others for weapons.

The Biden administration has clearly stated that it no longer considers the government under Abiy Ahmed a democracy. The free trade agreement, African Growth and Opportunity Act, with Ethiopia was dependent upon Ethiopia following democratic principals mutually agreed upon which were violated. Similarly many Western democracies are taking a similar view.

Although the Ethiopian government falsely claimed economic growth rates of 6% the real number is more like -2% and dropping. The  human rights violations and the instability of the Ethiopian state by an ongoing war with no end coming on the horizon severely inhibits foreign investors from participating in the Ethiopian economy which at this point has no future.

Eritrea’s choosing no COVID19 vaccination endangers Ethiopia and Africa

Eritrea propaganda complains that great achievements are vilified by the West. In reality they have empty buildings without proper faculty or equipment except for that recently stolen from the Tigray invasion.

While the 55 states of the  African Union struggle to contain COVID19 Eritrea is the only one who has chosen not to even start COVID19 vaccination said John Nkengasong ,the head of the African Centres for Disease Control. One wonders if the mentoring of Eritrean leader, Isaias Afwerki, to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has influenced Ethiopia’s decision to drastically scale down its own COVID19 vaccination plan with less than  4% of the population even receiving one dose. The exposure of a Eritrea taking no real steps to control COVID19 endangers neighboring Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Somalia and the rest of Africa.

Sixty six percent of Eritrea’s 5 million population  live in extreme poverty on less than $1 a day. Eritrea’s reporting of  the health care system leaves much to be desired. In spite of making claims of an advanced and comprehensive health care system for the most part health care in Eritrea exists only in a very sparse and rudimentary level.  Political elites go to Dubai while the poor and deprived suffer despite claims of “remarkable achievements“.  While reporting $24 per capita per year which would be equal to Ethiopia there is a definite disparity between Ethiopian and Eritrean healthcare. I know this personally having cared for hundreds of Eritrean refugees and visitors in Mekelle from the camps and when the border was open. I also saw elites in private clinics who would fly into Addis from Dubai. Additionally we had a few doctors training with us who were refugees from Eritrea. Eritrea spends more on propaganda showing some facilities in Asmara rather then giving the care. A young Eritrean doctor has given testimony on the fallacy of Eritrean claims.

While giving the excuse they are a young country they have poor training for physicians and nurses. No training beyond medical school for specialization. Essentially no intensive care and limited newborn facilities. There is a shortage of essential medicines such as insulin, antibiotics, and blood pressure control pharmaceuticals. Ironically, we were negotiating with them to train surgeons before the war broke out.

Saint Paul’s warning against idolatry presiding over Christianity in the world today

Watching the memorial to Bob Dole at the WWII monument brought this reflection of St. Paul’s warning of idolatry

Watching the memorial to Senator Bob Dole today. Tom Hanks in his tribute speech said “Bob Dole struggled to make America always a more prefect nation in an imperfect world”! America has always been a place where strong disagreements on policy and action have been a part of our nation. Arguments about the rights of individuals versus duty to the nation started with the first days of American independence. Yet there was something special about the “greatest generation” who came through World War II of which the late Senator Dole is a great example. 

America in the early years of the war was not just fighting for democracy but for survival. Different political bents found common purpose and the absolute need to communicate and talk with each other. A day ago I was with an elderly friend who was very active in politics in St. Louis years ago with frequent interactions in Washington, D.C. He described how politicians from different parties would live in the same neighborhood, share family picnics, and sometimes a beer at the local pub. Now it is as if they are in enemy camps.

Somehow today we have lost that sense of unity. Today it is always “we” versus “they”. Our tribal affiliation is more important than the real greater purpose. Thaddeus Williams in Confronting Injustice without Comprising Truth makes the strong point that Saint Paul in his Biblical writings in Romans and Acts warned Christians to beware of this type of idolatry that leads us to see others as not also being of God’s creation. Idolatry represents a rebellion against God, against truth, and is worthless.

Unfortunately this idolatry presiding over what should be our Christian values separates us not only from each other but also God. This only seems to be increasing not only in the USA but throughout the world wherever you see conflict including Ethiopia. 

Ethiopia has spent over $2 billion killing Ethiopians but little saving them from COVID19

Earlier this year Abiy Ahmed’s government mislead the population that an effective Ethiopia traditional medicine cure to COVID19 had been found as a part of the propaganda campaign. Later the Ministry of Health had to back track.

While the world prepares for the expected winter onslaught of the COVID19 pandemic Ethiopia has fallen far behind in vaccination complicated by intentional duplicity and deception to it’s people as a part of the overall propaganda campaign to hide government failures. With only 7.9% of the population receiving only 1 dose and 1.3% receiving two doses of vaccine in a country of 155 million Ethiopia is reporting very few cases. Why? Certainly there is no mechanism for testing, treatment, or data collection in Tigray where a complete blockade is underway. About the number of testing sites among the number of displaced people estimated to be over 4 million and perhaps as high as 20 million there is little information.

In September 2020, Abiy Ahmed touted a new factory to make test kits allowing testing for COVID19 in a contract with the Chinese company BGI but its focus was on testing travelers coming to Ethiopia who could pay for the tests as well as creating an export product rather than government domestic use. The Ethiopian government agreed to only purchase 1.5 million kits for domestic use.

In the midst of the worldwide COVID19 pandemic that just is not going away the Ethiopian government had sown mistrust with claims of an “African solution” that would obviate foreign vaccines when the Ministry of Innovation and Technology, Ministry of Health and traditional medicinal practitioners announced that they have approved a traditional medicine that was tested on humans and animals since the COVID 19 outbreak was in December 2019. No doubt this was at the urging of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Later when the facts became known that Ethiopia did not have even the research capacity to do such a study and that it was false, the Minister of Health had to back track saying that the initial message was “misunderstood”.

There was much excitement in March 2021 when plans were announced that The first shipment of the AstraZeneca vaccines produced by Serum Institute of India (SII) arrived in Ethiopia on through COVAX, which facilitated the procurement and shipment of the vaccines. Subsequent shipments of 5.4 million doses as part of the current global deployment plan were to arrive in Ethiopia by May 2021. Ethiopia had stated that by the end of 2021 20% of the population would immunized. Now the standard has changed from two injections to three further exacerbating the disparity.

While the COVAX provides up to 30% of the doses for free African countries must fund 70%. Ethiopia has spent over $2 billion in the last year alone to kill Ethiopians rather use funds to protect its citizens health. Costs of vaccines include manufacturing, safe storage, transportation, and logistical support. One dose costs $1.41 and two doses$3.15. This means Ethiopia would have to spend 70% of $362,250,000 equaling $253,575,000 to give just two doses to every Ethiopian.

Health care spending per capita in Ethiopia had slowly increased reaching almost $25 per person in 2017 before Abiy Ahmed came to power. Since then there has been a steady decline of about 10% per year. Falling birr value against foreign currency, $70 billion government foreign debt almost doubled by war expenditures, and new sanctions inhibiting foreign investment make the likelihood of increasing health care expenditures almost impossible.

The supply of vaccines has also been effected by the growing need for boosters which has caused the World Health Organization to complain that developed countries should prioritize the whole world receiving a first dose but politically this has been difficult to accept.

 

Jeffrey Feltman’s high stakes but potential high reward mission

Special Representative to the Horn of Africa is going to UAE, Egypt, and Turkey this week to discuss the Ethiopia Tigray conflict as well as related issues

The complicated issues to be discussed by United States Special Representative Jeffrey Feltman with United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Egypt are as big challenge as one can imagine but the stakes are high for all involved. The discussion will be pointed to finding peace in Northern Ethiopia between Tigray and the Ethiopian government but will also have to include stalemates in water use agreements of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and trying to resurrect the nuclear arms treaty with Iran. While visiting the three named countries discussion involving and perhaps under the radar are also likely to go on with Israel, Eritrea, and  Iran. 

Saudi Arabia and UAE continue to fight a proxy war in Yemen supporting government forces against Iranian backed Houthi insurgents which seems to be stuck in constant famine and civilian death but no resolution. This could be repeated in Ethiopia if no negotiated peace comes.

The United States has maintained targets for negotiation to fruitfully begin including Tigray forces withdrawal to its borders, Eritrea withdrawal from Ethiopia, free flow of food, medicine, and fuel to Tigray and the other regions of Ethiopia. It has asked for a clear and comprehensive investigation of human rights violations including those against women in Tigray and Northern Ethiopia by all parties by an unbiased body.

The United States has considerable power to negotiate as Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Iran would want to escape further sanctions which could be devastating. Egypt and Sudan are at the point of hostility to the point that they are not in a serious discussions with Ethiopia. Offering Iran a chance to re-enter markets may sway its selling of weapons to Ethiopia.  The United Arab Emirates enjoys its sovereignty but its closeness with the United States is more vital then supplying Ethiopia weapons. Being good negotiators they no doubt will want some favorable concessions.

Ethiopia needs to decide if it wants to stay as a favored nation to the United States and Western democracies are move to the China, Russia, Iranian axis. With debts approaching $80 billion and no agreement in sight with China on repayment there is no doubt that many years of austerity lay ahead for Ethiopia even if it wins “victory” soon cutting its future economic development severely. Without negotiation there is a risk of civil instability going on for years with the consequent limited international interest in investing in Ethiopian development.

On the other hand Tigray will have make a promise to stay within its borders in return for guarantees of security from the United States and Western democracies. Tigray needs friends but that comes at the price of forgetting to attempt an overthrow of the Ethiopian federal government. No doubt what to do with Western Tigray will be a major contention.

In the ideal world, the GERD controversy, Sudanese-Ethiopian land dispute, and Tigray war could be tied up with less sanctions for Iran and Eritrea. Not everyone would get all they want but more war could be averted. We can only hope reason will reign over passion for all groups. 

 

The constant gauntlet of fear without hope for the Tigray of Addis Ababa

International authorities estimate thousands of Tigray have been arrested recently in Addis Ababa

This family crisis was told to me a few hours ago. She was born in Addis as were her parents. Had only been to Tigray a few times and did not speak Tigrinya well. She and her husband had gone to Addis Ababa University and been active in the community helping the lest fortunate of all ethnicities for the past few years.  Their three children went to a local elementary school. No involvement in politics at all. They were church going to the local Orthodox church. Their neighborhood was not known to have many Tigray. Many of her neighbors who had previously been friendly and interacting had withdrawn from contact increasingly.

Several weeks ago federal police came and took her husband away and took her bank deposit book informing her that their joint professional office was closed as was her bank account. They searched her phone and erased it. Friends and family have been bringing food but this week the local neighborhood “watch” group told those bringing food to stop lest they would be arrested.

Today they took “Tigist”(not her real name). The authorities just took her and put her in truck with many others. No time to arrange anything. No message to anyone. Her next door neighbor heard the three children all under 7 at home crying. Now her neighbor is wondering if she is next.

Another day of the year of injustice to innocent Tigray of Ethiopia. Nobody knows exactly how many are detained or even where they are. They have no rights of habeas corpus or even to a lawyer. Trying to find out where they are can gets the one asking in detainment just for asking the question. How many is speculated to be at least 40,000 from Addis Ababa and growing everyday.

Ethiopia not invited to Biden Summit on Democracy and will suffer more severe sanctions

Statement on Detentions in Ethiopia from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, and USA

President Biden will hold his “Summit on Democracy” virtually December 9-10 with 110 countries but Ethiopia, Eritrea, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Sudan will not be invited. The Biden administration has stated that concurrent with the meeting there will be announcement of wide actions including further sanctions against countries violating human rights and practicing corruption.

The State Department of the United States has stated on numerous occasions that Eritrea should leave its occupation of Ethiopian territory, the Tigray forces should return to their territorial borders, and that Abiy Ahmed should stop imprisonment of Tigrayans. Today a Joint Statement on Detentions in Ethiopia was jointly released by the governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Sanctions are likely to be imposed on Ethiopia and Eritrea according to a spokesman for the United States Treasury Department who said “Treasury will take a series of actions to designate individuals who are engaged in malign activities that undermine democracy and democratic institutions around the world including corruption, repression, organized crime, and serious human rights abuse,” to many leaders around the world.

Those giving support to Tigray genocide risk future US federal prosecution

 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described the violence in Ethiopia’s Tigray region as “ethnic cleansing“.

American citizens or legal resident aliens could be subject to fines up to $1 million or imprisonment up to 20 years for inciting, conspiracy, attempting or direct involvement with genocide. The first step to declaring a genocide in Tigray by Eritrean and Ethiopian governments has been taken by the declaration of “ethnic cleansing” by United States Secretary of State Tony Blinken this week. Additionally the US Embassy in Eritrea called once again for the complete withdrawal of Eritrea from Tigray. Numerous interviews with various US government officials has indicated that the US has been holding off on full designation pending further negotiations. However, so far no real progress has been made.

Ethiopia diaspora and others acting in substantial support of the state sponsored genocide in Tigray should understand the implications if an official genocide designation is given.

Section 1091 of Title 18, United States Code, prohibits genocide whether committed in time of peace or time of war. Genocide is defined in § 1091 and includes violent attacks with the specific intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. There is Federal jurisdiction if the offense is committed within the United States. There is also Federal extraterritorial jurisdiction when the offender is a national of the United States.

Head of Arab League promises Ethiopia will “pay the price” for GERD defiance

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit

Ahmed Aboul Gheit Secretary General of the  League of Arab States was quoted in Arab News saying that Ethiopia will “pay the price” for constructing the Renaissance Dam, which has caused a growing urgent crisis between Addis Ababa and Cairo as well as Khartoum. The Arab League is expressing complete support for Cairo and Khartoum in this matter. Increasing tensions are now extending beyond just Egypt and Sudan to include other Arab nations. He was at the Mediterranean Dialogues in Rome this week.

They are also seeing other countries supporting Ethiopia’s military efforts as being complicit. The Secretary General further explained that “It is a dam of ruin for two Arab countries (Egypt and Sudan),”, adding that the “tragic situation” facing the Arab world in recent times has given Turkey, Iran, Israel and Ethiopia an opportunity to interfere in the region’s affairs.

Founded in 1945, the Arab League is a loose alliance of nearly two dozen Arab countries that have pledged to cooperate on economic and military affairs, among other matters.

In June 2021 it sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council asking for intervention because of Ethiopia’s noncooperation with negotiations on water use from Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to which Ethiopia objected. At that time the Arab League warned Ethiopia’s statement could undermine the friendly and cooperative relations between the league and the African Union.

A quoted source said that Ethiopia’s message contained many inaccuracies, but “the most dangerous thing was the clear attempt to drive a wedge between two regional organizations that have maintained close and solid relations.”

Ethiopia is now Egypt’s greatest security threat says Minister Atti

Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Abdel Atti has been increasingly critical of Ethiopia for some time

The complete lack of Ethiopian cooperation on Nile water usage is now Egypt’s greatest security threat. No Pan-Africanism sentiments here as Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Atti in his speech at the Planet Budapest 2021 Sustainability Expo and Summit on Thursday said “Ethiopian side deliberately issued false statements and managed the dam unilaterally, which caused great damage to the two downstream countries [Egypt and Sudan],” he added. Sudan, as a result of the unilateral filling last year, suffered from a severe drought, followed by a flood, he clarified. He pointed out that the Egyptians and others along the Nile have shown “great flexibility” in trying to work out a deal with Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed has avoided meeting or discussing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with Egypt since the start of Ethiopia Tigray conflict. 

He and others in the Egyptian government have stated that the Nile River flow is a “matter of life and death” for Egyptians.  They add the increasing demand for water while is it becoming a scare resource demand that agreement by all users of the Nile must be bilateral. Climate change and this scarcity are causing a crisis. Egypt is looking at sea water desalination and improving the efficiency of using water resources in domestic, industrial, and agricultural applications but this does not negate the absolute need for Ethiopian cooperation.