Month: September 2021

Egyptian and Sudan involvement in Ethiopia Tigray war happening?

Egypt and Sudan carry out joint military training, further deepening their military ties, amid the faltering negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Are Egypt and Sudan moving toward involvement in the Ethiopia Tigray conflict?  Today respected Somali Journalist Bashir Hashi Yussuf tweeted that Egypt has been supplying weapons in flights to Sudan of humanitarian supplies intended for the Tigray to be used against Ethiopia.

I previously wrote about the deteriorating status of Ethiopian Sudanese relations.  There is a very productive agricultural area the Sudanese call al-Fashaga and the Ethiopian’s call Mazega. Previously the TPLF leader Meles Zenawi had worked out a joint sharing agreement for its use. When Abiy Ahmed came to power the influence of the Amhara elites who claimed this area as theirs become vocal that it belongs to Amhara.

In March of this year the Ethiopian government had sent arms to a Sudanese insurgent group located along the Blue Nile which angered the Sudanese government in addition to Abiy Ahmed’s placement of soldiers in the disputed al-Fashaga region.  Subsequently the Sudanese Ambassador was recalled for awhile but upon his return no agreement could be reached with the Ethiopian government. 

The Egyptian government and its allies including Sudan have continued to bitterly complain that filling the Grand Renaissance Damn too fast will hurt the down river countries especially Egypt. Egypt and Sudan have signed a joint defense treaty and recently completed joint military exercises which many observers considered a warning to Ethiopia. As I said before some sources have told me that Egyptian press was publishing accounts that no military action should be taken until the outcome of the Tigray Ethiopian conflict was seen. Many believe a Tigray victory will yield a more understanding negotiation.

Just in the past month Eritrean opposition groups to Esaias Afwerki, leader of Eritrea and ally of Ethiopia in the Tigray conflict met in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, to discuss how they could remove the Eritrean government. Sudan has long standing problems with the Esaias regime regarding his support of the Grand Renaissance Damn and respect of Sudanese sovereignty. 

An article written in Foreign Policy magazine in November 2020 predicted then that Sudanese involvement would predict the outcome of the Ethiopia Tigray conflict. Clearly if Egypt and Sudan support Tigray the odds of an Ethiopian defeat become higher.

The Ethiopian response to the Tigray insurgency is not a winning strategy

The Tigray insurgency plan has a considerable chance for success when compared with many previous historical fights.  Insurgency against an established governmental institution have happened since prehistoric times. Scholars in schools of war and government policy have studied these occurrences to see if there are factors which can reliably predict who will prevail? Certain patterns emerge from these studies.

Map of the studied 59 cases of insurgency in the world

Of the past 59 cases of insurgency across the globe those occurring in Africa more than the other regions have tended to favor the insurgent force.

When we apply this type of analysis to the Ethiopia Tigray conflict we find there are some important factors which favor Tigray and go against Ethiopia prevailing with a successful counter insurgency plan.

  1. Allowing the Tigray to switch from a guerrilla type of warfare to conventional warfare. The resurgence of Tigray from being trapped in mountains with only rifles to functioning as an army was an important step towards potential victory.
  2. The large component of experienced professional fighters in the Tigray Defense Force. Upwards of 75% of the experienced officers and all important noncommissioned officers of the pre-existing Ethiopian Army are now fighting with Tigray Defense Force. Many of the leadership of the current Ethiopian National Defense Force were defeated by the the same Tigray leadership in the Derg war.
  3. Ethiopia applying an “iron fist” of repression ethnic punishment. Case after case has shown that ethnic cleansing and repression builds support for the insurgency. A resilient fighting force with determination and high morale is created.
  4. Ethiopian failure to include motives for negotiation and wither Tigray support. Offers to negotiate a peace take the power away from insurgents and tend to favor the government. Abiy Ahmed’s refusal to negotiate goes against conventional wisdom in dealing with insurgency.
  5. Ethiopian reliance on a foreign nation to successfully fights it battles. The requirement of Eritrean support ex parte portrays weakness on the part of Ethiopia and emboldens the Tigray insurgency.
  6. Ethiopia inability to counter diaspora support. World wide support by Tigray diaspora has resulted in condemnation of Ethiopian practices on the Tigray people including starvation, abuse, ethnic cleansing, and discrimination against noncombatants.
  7. Most insurgencies average a 6 year duration yet Ethiopia cannot economically sustain its current military spending more than a few months. Ethiopia has already spent $ 2 billion in one year equal to its whole annual budget. It had only $480 million left to last the rest of year but spent another $51 million on weapons from Turkey. Inflation and the falling birr which may drop to 100 birr to the dollar predicts risk of state failure.

If Tigray is defeated will Eritrea claim Western Tigray?

Who was the real winner of the Isaias Afwerik Abiy Ahmed “agreement”?

One has to ask why would Esaias Afwerki give back Western Tigray to Amhara if the TDF is defeated? Now that his armed forces have taken over Western Tigray while Amhara militia and ENDF forces are moving closer to Gondar in case of possible attack what is stop Isaias from annexing Western Tigray?  Could the Dictator of Eritrea now decide to claim Western Tigray for his own? Described as having a split personality with bout of charisma, no doubt to which Abiy Ahmed succumbed, but also mixed with a brutal and cruel tendency to have no limits in attaining power.  Some analysts have labeled him as being “addicted” to creating havoc.

Amhara and Ethiopian National Defense Forces  have been increasingly replaced by Eritrean troops in Humera and Western Tigray.  The cloud cover which obscured much of the views of the ground in Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea are starting to clear some allowing the viewer of satellite images to get a better view of happenings on the ground as the rainy season comes to an end. We can see that some planting is being done in Western Tigray that is new. Yet we know that Tigrayan farmers have been blocked from planting and many are killed.  Stories are beginning to come out that some “settlers” from Eritrea have been seen in the area of Humera. Hundreds of trucks are coming into Humera and the surrounding area daily caring more then just military personal. 

A well written analysis of the Esaias Afwerki -Abiy Ahmed relationship written in March 2020 when the Tigray Ethiopia war looked all wrapped up had some interesting insights into these allies of convenience. Esaias has always wanted to be the predominate ruler of the Horn of Africa. The young and inexperienced Abiy Ahmed in his naivete offered him the chance of a lifetime to get rid of his archenemy the TPLF and too to dominate a new Ethiopian empire that he has dreamed about since his days as a rebel fighter against the Derg. In statement made on his own Eritrea news channel Esaias has previously state he would never sit by and watch Ethiopian affairs develop without his input again. Greater Ethiopia should be his to rule and now destiny may have finally arrived. 

The Tigray Genocide continues while the world does nothing

Human Rights Watch says soldiers under the command of Abiy Ahmed killed at schools, markets, villages, and hospitals. This psychopath must be stopped.

The three months I was in Mekelle treating patients at Ayder Comprehensive Hospital during the Tigray conflict from November 2020 to January 2021 I saw unarmed young boys shot down in the street, mutilation of babies and partial castration of boys, women dumped at the hospital after rape to be “cleaned” then kidnapped again to an unknown fate, and many other evil acts by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. Today we see evidence from two reputable news sources, CNN and the Telegraph, that systemic mutilation and murder to imprisoned innocent civilians has been going on under Ethiopian supervision in Western Tigray. “Victims had their eyes gouged out and legs amputated before being shot.” This is occurring while we already know that tens of thousands of women from Tigray were raped while others were killed after in horrific acts of barbarism. Whole villages were wiped out in Hawzen as just one example.

All the while the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs gives briefings everyday that they are “trying” to give more food aid to Tigray we see locals along the highway who are cued into the shipments stopping the vehicles and stealing their contents whilst saying it was Tigray Defense Forces.

Since the beginning of the Ethiopian and Eritrean invasion the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his government have said that their incursion was about catching leaders of the TPLF and protecting the people of Tigray. Yet the evidence clearly shows that that the intent of the leaders of the invasion forces both Ethiopian and Tigray were intent on nothing less then a complete genocide that rivals what the world saw previously in Yugoslavia, Germany, and Armenia. The Turkish connection to get weapons of genocide from a country that to this day refuses to killing millions of Armenian Christians.

How much longer will the world, the United Nations, and the African Union stand by to let a deranged dictator and his henchmen kill innocents. Will it wait to millions more are dead?

Starvation as a weapon of war against the Tigray is strictly forbidden in the Bible

The use of starvation by Ethiopia against the people of Tigray is immoral and against Christian values

Is it reasonable to starve your enemy? At this time the United Nations and members of the African Union are calling upon the Ethiopian government and allied militia of the Amhara state to stop the intended blockage of food aid to Tigray which has resulted in dangerous ongoing famine for millions especially children. There are those promoting starvation of the Tigray region saying that it will weaken them and bring fighting to an end sooner. The Bible in both the New and Old Testament specifically forbids this practice. Classic Judeo-Christian values sees violence to easily become a self propagating recycling of increasing harm to the parties involved. 

I have previously written about the recognized justifications of both Islam and Christianity for a just war and how the Tigray Defense Force for the most part has met and exceeded this criteria. Additionally I did say that there was an argument that Christ calls for complete pacifism as the only way to go.  Which of these is correct has been controversial for centuries?

Now I am going to write about justification from the point of view of the Ethiopian government and recent statements by the President of the Amhara region that what they are doing is a holy war.

In the Old Testament in Proverb 25:21-22 it says
“If your enemy is hungry, give him food to eat; if he is thirsty, give him water to drink. In doing this, you will heap burning coals on his head, and the LORD will reward you.”
Here the burning coals recalls an Egyptian expiation ritual, during which a guilty person, as a sign of repentance, carried a basin of glowing coals on his head. Meeting violence and hate with charity and generosity stops this escalation of harm.

This message is repeated by Saint Paul in Romans 12 where he writes:
“Do not repay anyone evil for evil. Be careful to do what is right in the eyes of everyone. If it is possible, as far as it depends on you, live at peace with everyone. Do not take revenge, my dear friends, but leave room for God’s wrath, for it is written: “It is mine to avenge; I will repay,” says the Lord. On the contrary:
“If your enemy is hungry, feed him;
if he is thirsty, give him something to drink.
In doing this, you will heap burning coals on his head.”
Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

As I have previously written, invoking Jesus name to commit clearly forbidden acts is a form of blasphemy so severe that it is recognized as the sole unforgiveable sin.

Ethiopia and Eritrea planned the Tigray conflict well before November 2020

The first meeting of Abiy Ahmed and Esaias Afwerki in Asmara was the beginning of the genocidal plan for Tigray

A well thought out plot for a military takeover over Tigray by a joint Ethiopian Eritrean operation was put in place months before the November 2020 North Command incident.  False government propaganda says an innocent Ethiopian government who only wanted peace was “surprised” by a sneak attack on Ethiopia Northern Command on November 3, 2020.

With growing unrest and displacement of many ethnic groups in Ethiopia Abiy used the excuse of COVID19 to delay elections from their appointed time in 2020. The Tigray went ahead with their election and the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front won over a 90% margin with a majority of the voting population participating.  They argued that the delay of the elections in the rest of the country had rendered the government in Addis Ababa illegitimate. Ethiopia for the past year before November 2020 had been cutting the budgets to hospital, universities, agriculture and other vital functions but now decides to give a full cut off unless Tigray agrees the election is illegal.

Before Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 the situation for the Eritrean government was very rocky. They were under heavy sanctions from the United Nations for a war with Djibouti  and supporting Al Shabab rebels in Somalia.  Eritrea’s economy was being sustained by mining financed by Qatar interests and developed by Canadian interests bringing in about $1 billion revenue per year. However Esaias government was falling behind in interest payments to Qatar. Qatar recently filed lawsuits in the United States in excess of $300 million to claim against Eritrean assets. Additionally legal cases were building in Canada about the slave labor conditions of workers in the Eritrean mines. Esaias badly needed cash. Even though Canadian interests were mostly sold to Chinese interests 10% was kept.

In July 2018 the beginning of what would be a partnership in genocide begins. Esaias and Abiy discuss many things including the troublesome TPLF who is trouble for both of them. Also Esaias discusses the rich mineral deposits that are in Eritrea and what likely lies in the ground in Tigray. Even though the Irob people, Ethiopians,  who live on the disputed border of Tigray and Eritrea do not want to be a part of Eritrea due to a long history of human rights abuses Esaias insists he wants that border area because it has potential for gold and precious stone mining. Esaias makes an offer to solve the  problem that if Abiy  will support his claim he will wipe out the Tigray but only for a generous payment. What exactly is in the treaty signed by the two leaders has never been fully revealed but we know that Abiy agreed to pay Eritrea a prepayment of $500 million to invade Tigray before November 2020. Abiy also agreed to reduce the protective status of Eritrean refugees who were previously given full protections. The peace deal between Eritrea and Ethiopia so impressed the naïve international community that all sanctions were lifted and Abiy and Esaias were given the Nobel Peace Price. Little did they know that it was not a peace deal but a plan for genocide.

We know that the Abiy government had been impatient with mining interests in Tigray for being slow to develop leading to many cancellations of mining contracts in May 2021. However following meetings with Esaias Afwerki and with the Tigray leaders out of way decided to make deals with Chinese and Canadian interests for mining in Tigray for which no benefit would come to the Tigray region. Abiy Ahmed was upset that artisanal miners from Tigray were making profits like the founder of the Sapphire Hotel in Addis Ababa whom he placed in prison.

The Ethiopian military budget which had been about $400 million suddenly rapidly increases in 2019 and 2020 before the Tigray conflict. Clearly Abiy Ahmed was anticipating and planning for war. Between November 2020 and July 2021 Abiy Ahmed reveals that he spent $2 billion which is equal to the whole of the Ethiopian government budget. Many observers noted that for the months preceding the November 2020 North Command incident there was a military build up of Eritrean forces on the Tigray border and of Amhara militia and Ethiopian National Defense Forces in Amhara selecting officers that were not Tigrayan. Amhara politicians were sounding the need to return disputed land in Western Tigray but took no action that would be legally called for to settle this dispute under the Ethiopian Constitution likely because they had been told by Abiy Ahmed that a war was coming to claim it back.

Ethiopian war expenditures will alone make it a failed state

The costs of war for Ethiopia have reached the point of no return for the country to survive.

If Ethiopia wants to avoid complete economic collapse it must sue for peace immediately. Even if the Ethiopian government wins a unlikely military victory in the next few months it is heading for unavoidable economic downfall. Ethiopia’s debt to Gross Domestic Product ratio will reach a record setting 70%.  The country imports about $14 billion of goods per year, while it exports just $3.4billion. Analysts from the the United Nations and Trading Economics see the economy sinking fast without a chance to recover.

Thus even before the Ethiopian Tigray conflict increasing debt was building each year. As was widely reported Ethiopia with only two months funding left in its overall government funding received an IMF(International Monetary Fund) loan of $408 million in August 2021.  With a normal $2 billion a year budget that would cover a little over 4 months. Recent reports of what the government is spending on military costs alone in the Tigray conflict cast even further doubt on Ethiopia’s economic survival

As reported by Europe External Program in Africa in February 2021 an initial payment of $500 million was made by Ethiopian Prime Minister to Eritrea before the invasion of Tigray by Eritrea in November 2020. Then following the exit of the Ethiopian forces from Tigray following the resurgence of the Tigray Defense forces another $500 million was demanded for Eritrea to stay in Tigray. This was likely paid through covert visits of high ministers to Dubai who took significant deposits of Ethiopian gold reserves to pay off Esaias to keep him in the war.

This week it was announced that Ethiopia would now agree to continue to pay 13,600 birr per soldier from Eritrea to Esaias every month. Assuming that there are 50,000 are in Western Tigray this means 680,000,000 birr per month being paid. Meanwhile Ethiopia pays most of its soldiers about 5,160 birr per month. Why is the Ethiopian government paying so much to foreign fighters and so little to its own soldiers? Assuming there are 200,000 soldiers in the Ethiopian forces that means 1, 032,000 birr per month in soldier pay.

Today sources released data Abiy Ahmed gave Turkey $51.6 million in just August for weapons when he met with Turkish President. This increases by another 10% the overall debt burden of Ethiopia. Many business owners are flocking to other countries to exchange birr for dollars and deposit them in banks outside Ethiopia this week. 

 

 

What happened to captured Tigray fighters and the injured ENDF Oromia fighters?

The TDF is caring for thousands of ENDF, FANO, and Oromo POWS in rehabilitation camps

What happened to injured Tigray POWs and injured Oromia soldiers fighting in Tigray before the reoccupation of Tigray by the TDF(Tigray Defense Force)?

You hear a lot of news and see many videos of captured ENDF(Ethiopian National Defense Force) and Amhara fighters now in TDF custody but what happened to Tigray fighters captured by the ENDF and Eritreans?

I was at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital through the beginning of the war continuing to the beginning of January 2021 and I have been trying to investigate where this prisoners are located. We know that the Ethiopian and Eritrean government had planned a major assault on Tigray from some time before the events of November 4th 2020. The government had lined up casualty treatment hospitals with volunteer doctors mostly from Addis Ababa University to be based at Woldia during the major assault on Tigray and ending in Mekelle.

During the first two weeks of the war we treated civilians, Tigray Defense Forces soldiers, Ethiopian National Defense Soldiers, and Eritreans at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A short time after the occupation of the city of Mekelle, the military commander of the the Ethiopian occupying forces decided to move injured ENDF and Eritrean fighters to a new military hospital that had just been constructed recently. This went on for a few weeks. The Red Cross showed up soon upon the start of the conflict and we wanted them to collect information on all injured persons but they were turned away by the Ethiopian authorities.

Medical supplies to Ayder Hospital and the military hospital essentially ceased and the Ethiopian military decided to treat their casualties in an open air hospital constructed in the newly built football stadium near the Martyrs Museum which was serving as the commanding generals headquarters.

After this the story of what happened gets difficult to follow. Many Amhara patients were transferred out of Tigray to Amhara hospitals including Woldia but not everyone.

There is a rising story that preferential treatment was given to Amhara FANO fighters and Ethiopian National Defense Forces while Oromo soldiers who were thought to be “poor candidates to survive” received less care and where often allowed to die.

Additionally most to the Tigray Defense fighters as well as many civilians including rape victims of the invading forces were removed from Ayder Hospital as I and other witnessed and never to be seen or heard from again. At this time there are no reports of any Tigray POWs in any hospital anywhere. Most of the photos given to the Ethiopian press labeled as Tigray POW have not been fighters but college students detained, Tigray residents from Addis Ababa, and refugees returning from Saudi Arabi.

It has recently been reported by several sources that some detainees of this group were summarily executed without any legal proceeding.

The question remains where are Tigray POWS? Where are the Oromia fighters injured that were fighting in Tigray?